Is Russia trying to bait us? Or NATO?

"On final thought. Many did not like the tough talk that Trump used while president against our NATO allies. This talk was primarily aimed at 'deadbeat' countries. But guess what? It worked. Many who were below the 2% threshold, are now above it. NATO is stronger because of it. And you can take that to the bank."      

One of the Senators from Alaska was on the news yesterday. Many topics were discussed, but the one which caught me a bit flat footed was Russia incursions. This senator said there have recently been five Russian incursions in Alaska. That caused me to stop and ponder - why? I know that Russia has been playing this cat and mouse game with Japan for a while now, but why us? One would think their plate was full of what is happening in Ukraine. So, I decided to dig a bit deeper.

Forget for a moment about what is happening in Alaska. That might only be a feint. The real action might be in the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Want to get Putin's blood boiling? Just mention these states and the term NATO in the same sentence. Even though starved for seasoned troops, Russia has positioned more troops closer to the border of these three Baltic states. In fact, some think the rhetoric concerning the Baltics, is eerily similar to the talk he used right before making a play for Ukraine.

Then of course, there is the Suwalki Gap. This is the land corridor which just might be the most dangerous spot on the planet right now. It is vital to Russia, as it connects Belarus with Kaliningrad. But more importantly than that, it is the border between Poland and the Baltic States. The easiest way for Russia to deal with this would be to take a run at the almost defenseless Baltics. But to do so, would trigger Article 5 of the NATO agreement. You see, unlike Ukraine, the Baltics have the aegis of NATO protecting them.

One more thing. Should it ever come to pass that Russia does try to control the Suwalki Gap as well as the Baltic States, Poland is right there. For those paying attention to how Europe has responded to Ukraine, Poland has the best answer. The United States spends about 3.5% of its GDP on defense. Very good. But Poland spends 5%, and their goal is to double the size of their Army. Why? They don't trust Russia as far as they can throw them. If push ever came to shove, the Russians would find out that Poland is no shrinking violet. They are as tough as nails. 

Some might wonder if Putin is crazy for even considering a run at the Baltic States. Experts estimate that Russia has lost over 100,000 troops in the Ukraine war, and a good portion of their tanks and armored vehicles. They are not in very good shape to take on NATO right now. But Putin is either dingy as a bat or crazy like a fox. War is in his nature, and he could care less on what it costs Russia in blood and treasure. 

On final thought. Many did not like the tough talk that Trump used while president against our NATO allies. This talk was primarily aimed at "deadbeat" countries. But guess what? It worked. Many who were below the 2% threshold, are now above it. NATO is stronger because of it. And you can take that to the bank.