Dazed and Confused over $18T

 

 

"Who says money does not grow on trees?"

Back at the University, I took five quarters of Econ. Not enough to minor in it, but enough to satisfy my interest. I always found Econ my most interesting subject. Why I did not major in Econ instead of Finance is still a mystery to my. In any event, I really thought I understood the basic principals of Economics. As of late, I realize just how little I know.

I will say this however - it does not take a rocket scientist to see what is coming next. Yes, I can see the stitches on the fast ball coming over the plate. The moaning and groaning, gnashing of teeth, gloom and doom will prove too much for the weak at heart. The BIG news from the dueling pressers yesterday was there was a "hint" of some movement. What was that? You know - kick the can down the street again, even for a few weeks. The writing is starting to appear on the wall - the signpost of the road is now visible. We are going to get round heels and raise the debt ceiling to $18T, as many feel the alternative is worse than death.

Yesterday, I heard many talking heads use the same term over and over and over again. It would be IRRESPONSIBLE not to raise the debt limit. We would default on our obligations. The full faith and credit of our once great country would by sullied. Blah, blah, blah, blah. A very small and less vocal minority was signing a different tune - it would be IRRESPONSIBLE to add another $1T onto our already staggering national debt. Nobody seems to care about that song. Sure, we know the roof needs repair, but it is not raining right now, and might not rain for a few days. We maybe will address the roof issue the next time it rains.

I have said many times the biggest problem the Republicans have is messaging and the messenger. The facts on the consequences of a debt this large speak for themselves. We need to have some brave soul(s) get up and tell the American people the TRUTH. Enough pablum, enough lies, enough half truths. We need a very good story teller to tell the TRUE story of the cancerous effect of this debt.

Yesterday, Senator McCain (who I admire as a war hero), got up in the well of the Senate and decried the bone head move to not financially support the families of the recently fallen. He, like others, blame the government shutdown. I agree with him that this is a total disgrace. I do disagree with him when he said, [paraphrase] "Can't we find a way just to put this thing to an end?" Washington translation - House Republicans, please cave in, open the government and raise the debt ceiling. Let life go on in Pleasantville.

Well life won't go on in Pleasantville. Just as in the movie, Pleasantville is a mirage - a make believe place. As we tiptoe ever closer to the tipping point, the edge of the cliff might be found in 2014 if we raise this debt ceiling once again.

Can ANYONE Shoot Straight???

 

 

 

 

"I know it is hard, but can everyone be this inept?"

Oh boy, here we go again. Just when you think you have seen it all, something else comes up and knocks your socks off. I know it is a often used cliché, but is there anyone who works on the Potomac who knows what they are doing? That knows how to shoot straight? As an American, this is embarrassing. In fact, it is disgusting.

The latest revelation came out yesterday. It was not new information, however, this time it got some hard hitting press. It seems that Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) headed up a panel to investigate cheating, graft and misuse of our Social Security Disability (SSI) fund. The abuse of this fund has been known for some time - many have written about it. I have written about it a couple of times.

To qualify for SSI was like winning the lotto. All you need to is get on, an you are home free. Work? That is for chumps. With SSI, you get Social Security type benefits until you are planted. It is a hot deal for sure. The problem is, the participation in this fund has been growing like a weed. Way, way, way too fast. The plan administrators didn't seem to notice or care. Heck - it is not their money. Punch in, pay the bennies, punch out, go home.

One of the canaries in the coal mine has been the workplace participation number. It is at record lows for a variety of reasons. This is one of them. The urban legend, which now seems to not be so much legend, is the formula on how to get on. It is called the "three strikes" system. The first time most people apply, they get turned down. The second time, it will take a bit longer, but they get turned down again. The third time is the charm - most get accepted.

Last April, Forbes did an article about the misuse of this annual $200B program;

In a 43-page paper on the topic, Mark Duggan and Scott Imberman found that only 13 percent of the growth in the receipt of disability benefits in men was due to aging of the population; for women, it was 4 percent. But the biggest driver of all, was relaxation of the medical eligibility criteria, which accounted for 45 percent of growth for men, and 36 percent for women. The second biggest driver was the economic value of the disability  payments, which has grown over time, due to quirks in the formula used to generate them.

I have read studies which show the cost of fraud and inefficiency in government programs runs about 20%. I have also read other studies which show that number to be higher. Lets assume the correct number is 20%. If we need to borrow 33% over what we take in from revenue to run our country, then we truly only have a 13% issue to work on. That by itself would put a big hole in our growing debt.

Unlike industry, we never "take the temperature" on programs once they are up and running. There is no score card. Once started, government programs develop a life of their own and seem to live on into perpetuity.

There are many more examples I could point out, but it would violate my self imposed rule on brevity. This October, besides being resolute on fixing our debt issues, let us also take the gang out to the range so they can learn how to shoot straight so they can run this beast the right way.

The Washington Twerk

 

 

Twerking - To dance in a  sexually provocative manner

 

 

 

Just when you think you have seen it all, along comes Hanna Montana looking more like someone out of the movie Showgirls. Miley Cyrus, who for years played the Disney character Hanna Montana, was an idol for millions of "tweens" who routinely watched the Disney Channel. Today, Cyrus would be more suited for the Playboy Channel.

 

What has happened to our culture is also evident to how we are currently being governed by Washington. We are seeing twerking - only without the music or dance moves. Instead of being provocative, it is nothing more than profane. Part of the Washington twerk is having the ability to look the American people in the eye and lie like a rug. Yesterday, the sacrificial lamb for the Sunday morning talk shows was the newly minted Secretary of Treasury. He would be asked a question, and then give an answer to something completely different. He would lie, obfuscate, blame and duck. It was a jaw dropping spectacle - then something he said hit me out of the blue.

 

In trying to answer one of the questions asked, he said "I have involved in the Federal budgeting process in many different positions since the 1980's." Bingo - that is a big part of the problem. He has been drinking the bath water. He has heard and repeated the lies so many times, he believes them to be true. He not only repeats the urban legends, he also embellishes and accentuates them. Putting it nicely, there is nothing that comes out of this man's mouth one could say is correct. Putting it in the common vernacular, he is a liar.

The Secretary of Treasury is not the only twerker in this sad episode. One National Park Ranger recently confessed to someone in the media, his group was instructed to make this shutdown "as painful as possible" to the general public. We close down sports events for our troops using Armed Forces TV, and yet we keep the President's golf course open at Camp David. We close down the Amber Alert system, but keep the First Lady's Lets Move program funded. We close down the World War II Memorial even though it is a privately funded, outside, open air exhibit. Even though only 15% of the government is shut down, the twerkers are trying to make that 15% as painful as possible.

The next time you see young Miley doing obscene things on stage, think of this - with her, the twerking is just part of her new "bit". It may or may not be part of her true persona. The twerking which is going on in Washington however, is not an act. We are not only being treated like idiots, but also subjects instead of citizens. The people who are twerking us in Washington WORK FOR US! They are not our overlords, and we are not their servants. If we want to go to a National Park, National Monument, or the Washington Mall, we will go. They all belong to the people - us.

The bad part of the Washington twerk is we can't change the channel or turn off the TV. The twerking is real and has no chance of going away until we make it go away. Until that happens, we are stuck with this obscenity.
 

 

 

VERY Grumpy Old Men

 

 

"What tends to make me grumpy is the steady stream of sophism that comes from our elected officials..."

Some of us still remember the 1993 classic film, Grumpy Old Men. It was a great piece of work staring Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau. I won't go into the story line except for one scene. In that scene, the guys just found out a friend of theirs had "tipped over" and died from a heart attack. One of the characters muttered to the other, "Lucky bastard."

As I was much younger, I did not fully understand that line. I remember after the movie, I asked a friend of mine (who was much older), what the line meant. He replied, "As one ages, one realizes the inevitability of death. You see some friends die a long a painful death. Given the choice, many of us would like to go out quickly."

This analogy leads me to the point of this article. Right now our economy is dying a slow and painful death. It is like having a cancer which could be cured or a drug addiction which could be kicked. This month, we have the opportunity to take the very painful, yet quick cure. We could refuse to raise the debt ceiling.

Please do no be swayed by the shrill voices screaming to do so would spell doom for us all. It would not. In addition, many believe after the 17th came and went, Congress would evoke the Full Faith and Credit Clause (Article IV, Section 1) of the Constitution to ensure our debts continued to be paid. That clause reads as follows:

Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the public Acts, Records, and judicial Proceedings of every other State. And the Congress may by general Laws prescribe the Manner in which such Acts, Records and Proceedings shall be proved, and the Effect thereof.

 

So in a nutshell, what would happen if the 17th of October passes and the debt ceiling is not raised? Here is my point of view, if I can peer into the future a bit:

• The United States will NOT default on its obligations.
• Tax revenues will continue to come in, and bills will be paid.
• Congress would have to work with the President on emergency legislation which would put our spending and tax collections in line. At least in the short term, spending would be cut and taxes would increase.
• The LONG overdue national discussion on entitlement reform would go from molasses to warp speed. We will have a "souped up" version of Simpson - Bowles signed into law before Christmas.
• Out antiquated tax code will be scrapped and replaced with a flatter, fairer version in which EVERYONE pays something no later than next summer.
• Obamacare will be delayed for one year to ensure the numbers used for long term costs are vetted, and vetted correctly (and non-politically).
• We will survive, people will not die, kids will not starve, Social Security checks will go out, and life will go on. 
• We will donate the National Debt Clock to the Smithsonian, as we will no longer need it. 

 

That is my take just 11 days before "D-Day". I receive Social Security and Navy retirement. I need those monthly checks to live on. Yet, I am not the least bit worried about not receiving them. If for some reason I would not receive either or both of those checks, the finances of our country would be in more dire straights than anyone in Washington has told us.

 

My vote continues to be to fix this beast, take the cure, and do it quickly. Let October 17, 2013 be our next Independence Day - independence from our financial dependence.

What Kind of Math is This????

 

 

"Is this what happens when we teach the 'new math' in school today?"

Today in the paper was yet another article written by someone who is "wetting his pants", worried about not increasing our debt ceiling. If we don't raise it, we will only we taking in 2/3 of what we need every month to pay our obligations. In the real world, and not this fantasy world we have created, most would say this was madness - unsustainable. However in our fantasy world, some say Armageddon will happen, the country will fail and birds will fall from the sky. All because we are being asked to live within our budget.

Most people who work with chemical dependency know that sooner or later, if a person wants to be truly free from an addiction, there needs to be the moment of truth. Once you admit you are addicted, the next step is the detox. For some reason, our country has been scared to death of detox. Sure, a growing number of us realize we have a problem - but an even larger number refuse to take the cure. What we do instead, is head to the bar and order one more drink. In other words, raise the debt ceiling for the umpteenth time.

Simple math will tell us this - we have run out of money and owe our lives to our creditors. It is almost amusing when I hear someone in government say "We need to do something - we need to send some money to somewhere." Really? What money? If we are spending 1/3 more than we are taking in, where will that money come from? If I handled my resources in such a manner and then went in for debt counseling, I doubt if they would take my case.

For those who think raising the debt ceiling is no big deal, I implore you to think again. As Joe Biden would say, "It is a big @*^*^% deal!" As most of us consumers know, all borrowed money needs to be paid back (unless of course, you file for bankruptcy). Every dollar we borrow now just adds to the pain we will have to endure when we decide to get financially healthy. There is no other path - we either take the cure (not raise the debt ceiling and live within our means) or file bankruptcy and become like Greece on steroids.

My favorite radio personality was on yesterday saying over and over again the debt ceiling and fixing Obamacare constitute the "hill worth dying on". Truer words could not have been spoken. We are drunks folks - drunk on money we don't have. It is time for all to admit that and check into the sanatorium for a cure. Until we do that, we will continue to stumble from one bar to another, getting drunker all the time.

The ACTS of Praying

 

 

 

"If we could talk to God only a fraction as much as He talks to us, we would be much better off."

First my confession: I am not nearly at good at prayer as I should be or would like to be. That is a constant "do-better" I give myself. It is one of the greatest gifts we have, and why I don't take advantage of it more, is beyond me.

I am not writing this article to be "preachy" - those who know me, know it is not my style. I have been involved in many different churches in my adult life. I have been on church councils, vision councils, vision boards, unpaid staff positions and paid staff positions. I have seen the good, the not so good, and the very not so good side of service within the church. I have been critical in the past of churches which I thought did not act enough like the church. That was wrong of me. The church is still the Bride of Christ and should be treated as such. The church and it's leadership are attacked constantly by the enemy, and I need to remember that. The church is "ground zero" for the battle.

Back to praying. What I have learned later in my life (mostly because I was not paying attention), was the ACTS of praying. Even though many know this, for those who do not, the ACTS are:

• Adoration
• Confession
• Thanksgiving
• Supplication

When I come off one of my "quiet periods" as I have recently, I realize how much I have penalized myself by not talking to God. Using ACTS alone, I could or should be talking to Him all day long. The fact that the Creator of the universe, of all things great and small, of all things seen and unseen - that He has a caring and loving interest in me, is enough by itself to bring me to my knees.

I have wondered this past week if we would be in this mess if everyone in Washington began their day with a prayer asking for discernment. I think daily prayer, two cups of grace, and large doses of love and compassion, would fix most of our problems in Washington and elsewhere. God gave us the recipe on how to get along and care for each other. If we listen with our hearts, He will remind us every day how to do it. 

Today's Youth in Government

 

 

"These young people are our future - our 'seed corn'..."

This past week I saw an interesting contrast in our youth of today. I am going to talk specifically about their awareness of current events, and how if affects them. First off, just like he did last year, Glenn Beck has a Friday show in the fall called More On Trivia. He will call at random people working (quite often youth) at convenience stores located in the two cities where there is going to be an NFL matchup. The questions are very simple - the answers are often jaw dropping.

Last week he had a young lady on the phone in one of the cities. The first question was quite simple - name the three branches of government. Her answer - Republicans, Democrats and Independents. It would have been funny if it had not been so sad. There were other similar examples, but I think you get the picture.

By contrast, last night Sean Hannity had about twenty or so college kids or recent college graduates on his show. They were evenly split between registered Republicans and Democrats. Even though the answers given to each questions asked had the typical flavor of which party each youth identified with, they were all thoughtful and informed. On some of the questions, the Democrat students gave Sean a run for his money. It was a great show - one of the best Hannity shows I have watched. 

The YMCA has a program called Youth in Government (YIG). By far and away, it is one of the most successful programs the YMCA runs. For many years, my oldest daughter has participated in it as a leader. She has never lost her passion for it. I was involved in the program which existed prior to YIG when I was in high school. It was so impactful, I can still remember the experience like it was yesterday.

Quite simply, YIG is this - students from schools serviced by different YMCAs can spend a weekend at the state capital learning about how government really works. Students can learn, talk amongst themselves, and even debate. It is a wonderful experience, and students have the opportunity to leave the weekend much more informed than when they started.

I have often said I don't want to live in a politically homogenous society. I think diversity of opinions is a good thing. I enjoy a good political discussion with someone who is not of my ilk. It gives me a chance to learn and grow - it gives me added perspective. Our society is richer because of the universe of ideas that exists in our culture.

I have some very good friends, a few going back to high school days, that have much different political ideas than I have. That is fine with me. They are still my friends, and I enjoy talking to them and listening to their views. One of my friends in particular, who I have known more years than I care to admit, is an ardent liberal. Yet, he and I can talk and agree when the other has a good point. I would not trade his friendship nor his wisdom for the world.

When I hear some of today's youth talk who are "checked out", it is very depressing for me. I value each one of these kids. They are our future - our "seed corn". To dismiss them as "lost" hurts us all. By the same token, I take great joy and hope for our future when I talk to a young person who is engaged. I am much more interested in how they came to a political position rather than the position itself.

The next time you are close to your neighborhood YMCA, stop in and ask about the YIG program. The more you know about this program and others like it, the more hope you will have for our youth of today.