So long as there remains IRGC, so shall the war remain

"With Russia knocking at the door of NATO, with China getting ready to do something awful to Taiwan, and with the Norks still eyeing South Korea - we don't have the time nor the resources to put up with an adventuresome Iran. The smart money still lies on finishing these guys and doing it before August is over."

It hit me hard this weekend. I think I have figured out the endgame for the thugs in the IRGC. Maybe it was because they read the comic strip Peanuts when they were younger and understand that Lucy and the football trick. Iran is going to survive for two reasons. First - they keep changing the goalposts. Every time we think we might be getting close to a "deal" that slippery little thing called peace squirms away from us. And second (and this is a big one) - our government keeps changing. As such, the IRGC plays our politics better than we do.

Many are now asking, why can't we just finish this? We could I suppose, if our POTUS would stiffen his spine against the headwinds and allow our military to do their thing. But Iran keeps playing for time. Playing for control of the Strait. Playing for time so that they can continue on with their nuke research. Heck, they finally confessed they have a missile which has the range to hit our homeland. Our reaction to that has been crickets. Nada. 

Meanwhile, the IDF and the Mossad keep knocking certain IRGC baddies off the chess board. Not enough to make a huge difference in this war, but every little bit helps. What would help even more? For Saudi to grow a pair. Lean into this fight instead of begging us to stop the bombing. I would think that if any country, outside of Isreal, could benefit from a neutered Iran - it would be Saudi Arabia. I guess I might have been wrong. 

Then the question I have been pondering really hit home. What if we don't finish the job? Leave Iran just the way it is right now. What would the future be like? I think most of us know that Iran is not going to change. Until the people rise up and overthrow the IRGC, we are stuck with the status quo. And what the IRGC wants more than anything else right now is to survive. Survive to become strong again, so they can practice hegemony in the region. And yes - to rid the world of the Big Satan (us) and the Little Satan (Israel).

With Russia knocking at the door of NATO, with China getting ready to do something awful to Taiwan, and with the Norks still eyeing South Korea - we don't have the time nor the resources to put up with an adventuresome Iran. The smart money still lies on finishing these guys and doing it before August is over. But to finish them means real war, not just this ariel target practice. What does real war feel like over there? Maybe we should ask the Israelis. They have been doing it for years. 

Water - our uncoordinated mess...

"I know I had addressed this before. But things in Puerto Rico are getting serious. We have unlimited water in the oceans surrounding us. We need to fix this water issue and do it soon. Anything mentioned during this campaign season about this most vexing problem? Not yet. The problem is real and the solutions are fleeting."

Who is having water problems these days? How about Europe? How about Puerto Rico? How about the desert southwest in the USA? What are we doing about it? Not much. Ground water is shrinking, reservoirs are drying up, and farmers are struggling. But water? Who needs it? Especially potable water - they kind we drink to stay alive. Here is the rub - humans can go anywhere from a half a week to a full week without water. Then if no water is consumed - we die. Simple fact. First comes air, then comes water to stay alive. Food - further down the scale.

I have told this story before. I went through a real drought when I was stationed in Okinawa. It got so bad, water was only available once every three days. Then if you wanted a drink of that water, it needed to be boiled. One-minute showers were available once every three days. To say it sucked in 90-degree weather, would be an understatement. Why bring this up? On my off days, I would sit on a hill and look out at the East China Sea. Water, water everywhere. And yet - no water for the island. When I rotated duty stations in July of that year, and got home on leave, I drank water like there was no tomorrow.

I really can't believe that our water issue is not an issue. We need to come up with a Plan "B", Plan "C", and so forth. But instead of working on different ideas and strategies to bring in more fresh and potable water, what are we focusing on? Data centers. BTW - data centers, the way we are building them now, drink lots of water. And many of these data centers are being built in the arid desert. Call me stupid, but does this make any sense? Any sense what-so-ever?

I don't want to sound like a panic merchant, but we need a Manhattan Project for more water. The bad news is many of our aquifers are starting to run out of water. Rivers (like the Colorado) are running low. Glen Canyon Dam (Lake Powell) and Hoover Dam (Lake Meade) are close to "dead pool" status. Guess what? There is no alternate source of water for the millions of folks living down there. If the faucets run dry - then what?

I know I had addressed this before. But things in Puerto Rico are getting serious. We have unlimited water in the oceans surrounding us. We need to fix this water issue and do it soon. Anything mentioned during this campaign season about this most vexing problem? Not yet. The problem is real and the solutions are fleeting.

 

  

Stuck, really stuck in Hormuz

"I know, I know. I am just an old retired sailor, who listens to the news every day. There is much more which I don't know than I do know on this war. That being said, I still believe we have the firepower in theater to end this thing. Our president said he would prefer not killing any more people. That is like water off a duck's back to the Iranians. If Trump said he was going to grind each and every one of the IRGC members into dust, now that - might get their attention." 

There is an old saying in the world of negotiation. When things get stuck in a protracted negotiation, after a while, it seems as if you are only negotiating with yourself (and/or with your team), and not the other guys. I hate to say it, but the best negotiator in our land appears to be stuck. How do I know? Iran the other day said their negotiations with Oman on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz were about done. Wait - what? Oman has nothing to do with anything here! The negotiations on opening the Strait back up is between us and Iran. What gives?

The "deal" which has been reached between Iran and Oman (you are going to love this one), is for one shipping channel to be controlled by Iran, and a shipping channel going the other way to be controlled by Oman. The United States and Israel (and maybe Saudi Arabia) will be persona non-grata. No US ships, or Israeli ships will be allowed to use the Strait. Say what?

Correct me if I am wrong, I thought the war started out with us telling Iran they must give up any idea of having a nuke. Israel went into this war with one objective - decapitation of the IRGC regime. After Iran started to muck up the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, we had an additional objective - open the Strait to international shipping traffic. We figured that we were on the side of the angels on that one, since the Strait has been determined by a world court, to be open and free, for all to use. In the eyes of Iran however, they are telling us and the world to "stick it".

Then I thought POTUS gave these guys until Wednesday to agree to our terms or all you know what was going happen after Wednesday. Here it is Friday, the Strait is still closed, and the nuclear "dust" remains in Iran. The "big attack" to finish the job? I guess not. 

Maybe the new strategy is to kills these guys by a thousand cuts. In other words, the economy in Iran is in tatters right now, and keeping our boot on the neck of Kharg Island (via our blockade) is putting the big hurt on them. Meanwhile, Israel keeps hammering away at Hezbollah in Lebanon and the IRGC in Iran.

Here is the interesting part of where we are right now. We think we have Iran over a barrel. We are just waiting for them to cry "Uncle" and surrender. Iran knows that Trump's ratings fall every week the Strait is closed and the price of gas stays high. The IRGC does not give a tinker's dam on how much this hurts their people. Just so long it hurts us more.

I know, I know. I am just an old retired sailor, who listens to the news every day. There is much more which I don't know than I do know on this war. That being said, I still believe we have the firepower in theater to end this thing. Our president said he would prefer not killing any more people. That is like water off a duck's back to the IRGC. If Trump said he was going to grind each and every one of the IRGC members into dust, now that - might get their attention. 

Meanwhile, as we would say in the Navy - hurry up and wait.        

If Project Thor is real, how about Pickaxe?

 

One more thing about using Project Thor against Iran. Should we do this, what a message to the other bad guys in the world. Yes, we have stuff in our weapons locker which nobody knows about. Project Thor would be a good place to start. It is after all, peace through strength.  

Project Thor. This idea has been kicked around since the Cold War. Is it even possible? Maybe. Probably. Do we have one as yet? Unknown. But if we did, it might be the answer to a big problem we have right now. And that problem is Pickaxe Mountain. That granite beast which might be holding the secret sauce to what Iran is really cooking up. And if that secret sauce is a nuke, we need to act - now.

We have another solution for Pickaxe Mountain, which President Trump is reluctant to use. We do have a nuke which is on the tip of one of our bunker busters. But that in and of itself - is the problem. It is a nuke. If we did use that nuke on Pickaxe, which would really fix the problem, it would change warfare from now on. And the United States would be the only nation in the world to use atomic or nuclear bombs - three times. Not good.

But Project Thor, if it is real, could solve a problem without creating another one. We could destroy whatever evil lies buried under hundreds of feet of granite - without using a nuclear device. In other words, the tungsten material, which a rod from Project Thor is made out of, when released from orbit, will reach a speed of Mach 10 by the time it hits the ground. These 20-foot-long rods, with a one-foot diameter, would carry quite a punch by the time one hit the ground at Mach 10.

What about the ethics of using such a weapon? Against Iran? After the attack on Israel a few years ago, Iran and its proxies no ethics. No - I would be fine in using Project Thor against the country which has been yelling "Death to America" for almost 50 years now. And all it would take is one rod, if they have the precision of our bombs, to do the trick. And in the aftermath? Iran would know that hiding bad stuff underground no long works for them.

One more thing about using Project Thor against Iran. Should we do this, what a message to the other bad guys in the world. Yes, we have stuff in our weapons locker which nobody knows about. Project Thor would be a good place to start. It is after all, peace through strength.  

 

Washington whispers about our ammo supply

"Is the pause in the action really just a time to get an agreement hammered out with these recalcitrant Iranians? Or is it to catch our breath and stockpile more needed munitions. Or is it a little of both? Meanwhile, stay tuned to what is going on in the Middle East. The dynamics seem to change daily."

Imagine having a neighbor who loves to collect new and used guns. You go visit him, and he often takes you into his gun room. It is quite impressive. Just when you think he has it all, he tells you he has another pistol and a long gun on order. One day, you ask him if he would take you out shooting. If you could pick the gun of choice and then try it out. With an embarrassing silence, he stammers and then confesses - "I would love to, but I have very little ammo left. I can't get any more for a while, so now I have to be careful on how I use what I have left."

The Washington whispers are getting louder. We had enough missiles (especially the SM3 missiles for our VLS ships) to fight a certain type of warfare. What we did not have, were counter measures cheap enough, and prolific enough, to counter a constant stream of drones and missiles. If an order of battle for Iran was to overwhelm an invading Navy (like us) with cheap drones, it almost worked. We are not out of missiles as yet, but if rumors are true, to fight a different kind of war in the near future (like against China over Taiwan), things could look iffy.

Here is the dichotomy. We build some of the best and most sophisticated missiles in the world. Our bombs are no longer "dumb" - on the contrary, they have absolute guidance built into them. Now here is the other side of the coin. Money and time. Each missile or round costs money. Some, a lot of money. For example, some SM-3 interceptors cost almost $30M/each. Depending on the variant, some are cheaper, but all are expensive - quite a bit more expensive than the drone it takes out. And the time to build one of these missiles, is many times longer than the time it takes to use one. Ergo, some of our weapon lockers for these expensive missiles are starting to look like Mother Hubberd's Cupboard. Not empty, but far from full.

Even though the state of our weapon inventory is something most commanders keep close to their vests, enough leakage has happened in the press (and otherwise), to know there is a problem. POTUS has authorized a full speed ahead order with some of the nation's largest munitions manufacturers, but that still is not fast enough. Will this issue last forever? Of course not - but it is here now.

Is the pause in the action really just a time to get an agreement hammered out with these recalcitrant Iranians? Or is it to catch our breath and stockpile more needed munitions. Or is it a little of both? Meanwhile, stay tuned to what is going on in the Middle East. The dynamics seem to change daily.

Is this the end of the Democrats?

"Let me one of many to be the first to offer a welcome to the more normal Democrats who are looking for a new perch to land on. The past is in the past, and you will all be welcomed as fellow travelers on this journey."

I remember watching a show years ago called "The Season of the Witch". I was a good, scary Halloween type of movie. Today, a new movie could be made called "The Season of the Crazy". As goofy as the Democrats have become as of late, this new crop of Socialists and Communists in the new, upstart Democrat Socialists of America (DSA) - are way off the reservation. Right now, many are yearning for the good old, same old and plain Democrats. Talking to anybody from the DSA is about as strange (maybe stranger) than talking to an alien.

Last night, even though it is still close, it looks like the alien (I mean the DSA candidate) is going to win the open seat in Michigan. Now the alien (who talks gibberish) will square off against Mike Rodgers in the general election. It will be Rogers (who is like Norm Normal or Sam Standard) will be up against the alien. Right now, the odds makers are thinking this race will not even be close. Why? Many in Michigan are still normal people, and don't understand alien talk.

After the dust settles in November, what will all of this really mean? The DSA types will pick up some seats, only because America still has some of the dumbest voters in the universe. But what will happen to the Democrat Party is where the real story is. Many light blue Democrats will become dark blue Democrats. As such, look for defections in large waves going from blue to red. Even James Carville said the other day, if some of these aliens win and become part of his current party - he is out. He did not say he would turn red, but he sure said he would no longer be a Democrat.

Wait - what? I thought the Democrat Party was the "big tent" party, that might have been the story from yesteryear. Today (thanks in large part to Donald Trump), the Republican Party is much more "big tent" than either the current blue party, or the former blue party. Doe the Republican Party have some crazies? Ya, sure - maybe a wee bit. But our crazies are only a "one off", compared to the "otherworldly" nut balls that are streaming into the Democrat Party.

Let me one of many to be the first to offer a welcome to the more normal Democrats who are looking for a new perch to land on. The past is in the past, and you will all be welcomed as fellow travelers on this journey. However, if you are a DSA alien and want in - keep on walking. Only freedom loving, red blooded Americans welcomed here. Most of our people eschew Socialism and Communism. Many have fought in wars against such. Get the picture? We don't care about the color of your skin, but we do care about the color of your politics. 

 

What is it with Norks and nukes?

"Will North Korea ever become a seeker of peace instead of a god of war? Maybe not in my lifetime. I do know this - life in North Korea is very hard. Will the North Korean people finally wake up and decide this is not the way to live a good life? One can only hope and pray they will."

North Korea. The hermit kingdom. The land in which time forgot. The "why" in North Korea is what really interests me. They are the bad boy of the WestPac. Normally, I could look at this country and blow it off. As the saying goes, "not give it no never mind". But we (I) can't. One simple reason. While the US presidents were asleep at the switch, the Norks got nukes. It started small, but then it seems like almost overnight, North Korea became a nuclear power. Now it is a country with 50 nuclear bombs, run by a madman.

It has been a while since I have addressed this issue. The "rich man - poor man" issue of the Korean Peninsula. Why is this such a big deal that the hermit kingdom has now garnered nukes? Has anybody had the forethought to ask Kim what he plans to do with all those nukes? And because he has free reign to do as he wishes over there, he is building an additional five to eight nukes a year. Why? To use of South Korea? To us on us? Japan? What is going on in his twisted mind? 

Donald Trump is fighting like crazy right now to keep Iran from developing nukes. Why? He has seen what nukes have done to the tipping point over in Korea. He does not want a repeat of that in Iran, happening under his watch. Trump knows that should Iran get a nuke, right behind them would be the Saudis. Or UAE. Or Jordan. Or who knows who would be next. Israel has nukes but are quiet as church mice about it. Their nukes would only be used as absolute last option. North Korea on the other hand? His nukes might be for his recreation. His power plays. Basically, the fact the Norks have nukes right now is a mess - a real hot mess.

As poor and misguided as North Korea is, is how balanced and successful South Korea is. South Korea is a powerhouse of technology and innovation. It is a rich country with a wonderful future. North Korea is a dead country with no future. During his first term, Donald Trump tried every which way to convince Kim there is a better way. For a short time, it almost looked like Trump was getting through to Kim. But he did not. And now Kim is back on that lonely road to becoming a bigger and much badder despot.

Where do we go in the future? What is to become of the Western Pacific? The ascending stars are for sure South Korea and Japan. Both have shown that should push comes to shove with any of the bad boys in that region of the world, they can take care of themselves. But then there is the question of nukes. Neither Japan nor South Korea have nukes. But North Korea does. China does. Russia does. India does. And Pakistan does. That makes the balance over in the Indo-Pacific become very unbalanced. VERY unbalanced.

Will North Korea ever become a seeker of peace instead of a god of war? Maybe not in my lifetime. I do know this - life in North Korea is very hard. Will the North Korean people finally wake up and decide this is not the way to live a good life? One can only hope and pray they will.