"Putin is a world class war criminal, and he is still on the loose in Europe. Will he be the turd in the punchbowl going forward? Could be - and that would be bad for all of us."
I guess the term "war" for only being three letters long, has turned into a four-letter word. How so? Even though we are at war, we will not call it a war. In our country, the Iranian War is called something else - like an operation or something. I guess that is a way to skirt around some of the legal nuances of the War Powers Act. But we are not the only country who is using synonyms for war - so is Russia.
The current war in Ukraine, which is the bloodiest Euro event since the end of WWII, is not called a war by Putin. It is called an SVO, or SMO - which stands for Special Military Operation. Now before anybody hits the "so what" button, let me explain why this is such a big "so what". The intelligence sources by our allies in NATO are blinking bright red warning lights right now. A well-founded rumor has Russia sending out a communication to its armed forces to prepare for another SMO in the near term. However, the rumor also has it that communication was pulled down as it might have gone to an audience which should not have received it.
Putting that aside, the Euro intelligence services are still certain that Russia's intent is to harass NATO countries using this new "hybrid" type of war. Cyber-attacks, drone incursions, violation of NATO air space by Russia military jets - everything which could lead up to a hot war (or SMO) but not cross that threshold. But some analysts believe that crossing that threshold could be coming sooner rather than later. Like, months instead of years.
All this talk of war and rumors of war has led to a frenzy in weapons procurement within NATO. Especially now, when Trump has dropped an inkle that the US might not be as involved in Euro NATO as much as we have been in the past. Time for the kids to grow up and take care of the big, bad bear without us. Some in NATO are up for the fight - Poland being the bravest of them all. But others, like the Balkans, know they will be easy prey for a hungry bear.
What is going on inside the head of Putin? What is going inside of his heart? Has he telegraphed his punches enough so we can see the future? Is war, years of messy war, in our future? Or will cooler heads prevail?
Putin is a world class war criminal, and he is still on the loose in Europe. Will he be the turd in the punchbowl going forward? Could be - and that would be bad for all of us.


