The cost of defeat; the cost of victory

"It is a shame it had to come to this. Trump gave Iran many outs and many off-ramps. But the Mullahs thought they were immune to western power. They found out the hard way they were not."

There is an old saying that it is easier to start a war than to end a war. Why? War is messy. It is icky. Many bad things happen in war which are hard to forget. Many times, much lasting pain. That being said, Donald Trump has promised no more forever wars. He wanted to do some modern-day shock and awe with Iran and then have some veto power (or approval power) in what Iran's new government would look like. But right now, with a bit over a week of war under our belts, the messiness of this war is starting to reveal itself.

So far, we have taken out almost 50 of Iran's leadership. Hundreds of missiles and launchers. Thousands of drones. So then, what constitutes victory? Where we can leave with our heads held high. Where our blood and treasure were worth the sacrifice. First and foremost, the old regime needs to be gone - gone for good. A new government, which will be fair to its people and good to its neighbors needs to be installed. But almost as important as that one, the 440 kilograms of enriched uranium needs to be accounted for. Why? According to Iran before the war started, that is enough uranium to build eleven nuclear bombs. It is critical that this uranium come under our control. So, it can never be used or sold on the black market.

Once this war is over - and it will someday be over, picking up the pieces will start. Iran will be a mess. Many buildings will lie in ruin. The oil refineries will need to be rebuilt. And the shock to oil futures, will take a while to calm down. Until that happens, until this war if officially done (with victory by the US and Israel secured), the messiness will continue. The Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a challenge for free and open transit. Rogue missile or drone launches will continue. Gas prices will remain at Joe Biden levels, and some commodity shortages might develop. The easy part of the war is coming to a close - the hard part is just starting.

What do I mean by the hard part? Twice now, POTUS has intimated that we might need to send in ground troops. Door kickers. Troops which can not only root out hidden IRGC members but also find the 440 kilos of enriched uranium. Can the Kurds help? Maybe. Can other friendly nations help? I sure hope so. Remember however, Iran is twice the size of Texas. Lots and lots of territory to cover. 

It is a shame it had to come to this. Trump gave Iran many outs and many off-ramps. But the Mullahs thought they were immune to western power. They found out the hard way they were not.

Meanwhile, as we continue to try and fix Iran, Rubio is down in Cuba laying the groundwork on how we can fix that failed country. Bored yet with Trump? Hard to be, as he might be the most consequential president in US history.  

Time for "Defense extreme (DX)" on everything!

"Right now, we need a better solution for the thousands of drones which are being produced every year. We need a good solution for the new hypersonic missiles. To ensure the safety of the fleet as well as the homeland, we need to think in the future and not in the present."    

I spent about 25 years of my civilian working life as a government contractor. It was a good life - I learned a lot, traveled a lot, and negotiated a lot. One of the things I learned while working with the US Government was this - every order had a DOD priority on it. It was called the DPAS System which stood for Defense Priority and Allocation System. Most orders I had were normal in their DPAS ratings. Once in a while however, I received a DX rated order. The "DX" stood for Defense Extreme, and it always went to the top of the pile.

Yesterday, the president had about half dozen or so of our largest defense contractors at the White House for an "SOS" meeting. It is no secret that between supplying Ukraine (mostly under Biden) with weapons and ammo, and now with the war on Iran, our ammo and missile inventory is getting a bit sparce. Even though we keep saying that we are good, I really wonder how good we are. With the meeting yesterday, I think we might not be that good at all.

Trump asked the CEOs who were present at the White House yesterday to really jump start their production rate. Like double it? That is a huge favor to ask! Nope - he wants everybody present yesterday to sign up to ramp up to a fourfold increase in production. The president said he would eliminate as many of the middlemen as possible as well as get rid of needless regulations. When the meeting was over, all left with the agreement it shall be done.

The one item I am the most concerned about is our Standard Missile (SM) 3. This is the bad boy which is fired from a VLS (Vertical Launch System) to take out high flying ballistic missiles. We have wasted many of these million dollars plus missiles on cheap drones. These missiles (I worked at BAE when the SM 3 was being developed) are very effective. But - they are also very expensive and are now becoming a bit scarce. 

For those who work for a defense contractor, the days ahead might be filled with "pedal to the metal" type of work. But it is important work. Right now, we need a better solution for the thousands of drones which are being produced every year. We need a good solution for the new hypersonic missiles. To ensure the safety of the fleet as well as the homeland, we need to think in the future and not in the present.    

For a stronger NATO, Starmer and Carney must go!

"Both Carney and Starmer need to wake up and smell the coffee. They are both lost living in the same bubble, creating sound and fury, and signifying nothing. Besides supporting Donald Trump, they could learn a thing or two. As Trump reshapes the world, it would be smart to be a part of that process, rather than on the outside looking in."

Okay - let me get this on the table. Love him or not, Donald Trump is the leader of the free world. Period. He is the leader both by his position (POTUS), and more importantly, the way he acts. The things he does. But here are the facts of life. During the four years before Trump's second term, NATO became lazy and ineffective. While the US spent many billions to bolster the Ukraine Army, the rest of NATO (for the most part) - did very little. China went hog wild, and Iran was racing to get enough uranium to build that first nuclear bomb. Some might say we got Trump back in the White House in a nick of time. I am one of those people.

But Canada, oh, Canada - what in the world were you thinking when you elected Mark Carney? Wasn't it enough you had years of Trudeau? In one short year, Carney is turning into an American hater as well as a shill for Xi of China. We need Canada right now to be a strong northern neighbor, not a bedwetter. No wonder Alberta (and maybe some others) want to leave this socialist hell and become part of the US.

As weak and feckless as Carny is, that is nothing compared to the man who is afraid of his own shadow in the UK. Yes, that would be Keir Starmer. First a word of clarity from my perspective - I love the UK. Love the people. Been there a half dozen times on business. The UK deserves better than Starmer. Why? He is allowing the Muslim immigrants to take over his country. To change the culture. But Starmer, who is an atheist, does not seem to care. He does not see the danger Maybe his tepid response to the current war in Iraq is formed by that fear of his Muslim population.

Mark Carney should be run out of Canada on a railroad. Like the UK, I love, love Canada. Beautiful country, great people. I have negotiated with the Canadian government twice - both times were enjoyable. But my trust in Mark Carney cannot even be measured in inches. Trump has no time for him. NATO should also have no time for him. In these days when the Arctic is seen as a prize by both China and Russia, Carney is allowing himself (and his country) to be played. Rather than being our best friends right now, Carney, as well as Starmer, are like zits on our bottoms instead of allies.

Both Carney and Starmer need to wake up and smell the coffee. They are both lost living in the same bubble, creating sound and fury, and signifying nothing. Besides supporting Donald Trump, they could learn a thing or two. As Trump reshapes the world, it would be smart to be a part of that process, rather than on the outside looking in.

The only fair question to ask - "What happens next?"

"I suspect that our SOS Rubio and his team are working this issue. My thought? This might be a good agenda item (maybe the only item) for the next Board of Peace get together. The Arab nations should be particularly interested in what happens next in Iran. It is after all - in their neighborhood." 

I don't want to sound like a "homer" when I say this, but I will say it anyway. The United States and Israel together, are beating the living snot out of the leadership and goon squad in Iran. How bad is it? Just short of a massacre. But let me be clear on one thing - this team of the US and Israel, make up probably the finest combo of warfare expertise in the world at this point in time. As good as things are going right now (and they are going very well), one question begs to be asked - what happens next? After the war is over?

Before I address this question, one more thing about how well the US and Israel are executing this operation in Iran. We lost three F-15E jets over Kuwait from friendly fire. Not over Iran from hostile fire nor friendly fire from Israel - it was friendly fire from Kuwait forces. And the six-service people who were killed - that was from hostile fire. Not in Iran, but on one of our Army bases in the area. Killed by a missile or a drone. 

Back to the question at hand. Why is this so important to answer correctly? Many of us still have a hangover from the liberation of Iraq. The war to oust Saddam Hussian went very well - not as well as this war with Iran, but still very well. But then came the aftermath - nation building. Helping the good citizens of Iraq elect and develop a democracy. And it went horribly wrong. Many brave service people died in the aftermath. It burned a memory into many brains that nation building is not one of our fortes. And we should never try it again.

The one question which is being asked by both sides of the aisle is this - (using young folk jargon) - what is the plan, man? This is not a partisan question. It is a fair question. The millions of innocent Iranians who have lived under this brutal theocracy for almost 50 years might need some care and feeding in how to live as a free people. What does that mean? It means that Iran might need a tinge of (dare I say it?) - nation building. But who will do it? There is no stomach by anyone for the US to do it. But if the care and feeding of this newly freed nation is not done, will it become wild and untamed instead of normal and civilized? If so, how, who, where and when?

I suspect that our SOS Rubio and his team are working this issue. My thought? This might be a good agenda item (maybe the only item) for the next Board of Peace get together. The Arab nations should be particularly interested in what happens next in Iran. It is after all - in their neighborhood.

PS - The pic I used is the Iranian Corvette class ship which was torpedoed and sunk by a US submarine. First time since WWII that we have sunk a ship from another country using a torpedo.  

  

 

Where is the threat, the clueless ones ask...

"Do the Democrats have a death wish? Do nothing and let nature take its course? Seems that way. Trump on the other hand, does not see it that way. And that is why we have engaged Iran. Putting our blood and money at risk. But with Iran, the risk is worth it."

Yesterday, the administration met with the entire Senate to show their hand (so to speak). Like, with the Democrats wanting to push a War Powers Resolution and have our troops leave the vicinity of Iran, the Democrats wanted nothing to do with the Rubio brief. "There is no threat", the clueless brigade would parrot each other when cameras and mics was shoved in their untruthful faces. Again, we live in two separate worlds. We speak two different languages. Most importantly, we know two different truths.

Here is some of the unclassified information which was shared with the lackluster wing of the Senate yesterday. To answer the question, "Where is the threat?", the following was offered. And this information had no spin on it, as our intelligence agencies as well as Israeli agencies had similar or exact information.

Missiles - Iran has (with the help of China) been building up its missile inventory at a blazing pace. Like, up to 100 missiles a month. Why so many? Iran knows with enough missiles coming down in a swarm on Isreal, they can defeat the famous Iron Dome. With thousands of very accurate drones coupled with hundreds of ballistic missiles, many cities in Israel would be laid bare to ruin.

Long Range Ballistic Missiles - Where is the threat? With the increase in ballistic missile technology (thanks to China), it would not be long before Iran had missiles with enough range to hit the "Great Satan" (us) as well as every city in Europe. In other words, rather than watching (on TV) the sirens going off in Israel when Iran launches a missile, the sirens would be going off in our homeland.

Drones - Ready or not, here they come. Some defense experts recently said that drones are the new "suicide vests". They are low and slow but also getting more accurate. Iran has thousands of them and the factories in Iran keeping pumping them out. Love them or hate them, drones are here to stay - and Iran has legions of them. 

The Poison - The real prize for Iran, the one in which they have been striving to complete, is enough enriched uranium to make at least a dozen nuclear bombs with, which can be put on top of a ballistic missile. Iran has enough enriched uranium right now to meet that goal - all it needs is a bit more time on the centrifuge, and it will be good to go. That my friends, is the real threat - and it is at the door, waiting to come in.

While the Democrats let Obama get away with murder while he was in the Oval Office, bombing numerous countries WITHOUT CONGRESSION APPROVAL, we have a real threat here in Iran. Do the Democrats have a death wish? Do nothing and let nature take its course? Seems that way. Trump on the other hand, does not see it that way. And that is why we have engaged Iran. Putting our blood and money at risk. But with Iran, the risk is worth it.

 

A little help here, PLEASE!

"But this is important and is the golden nugget. For the United States and Israel to taking down Iran (who is in control of thousands of ballistic missiles and even more drones), would be a favor to the world. Why? The Mullahs are megalomaniacs. They wanted to put a nuclear warhead on some of their long-range missiles. Always been their plan."

What in the world has happened to our "friends" in Europe? They have become soft and self-centered. How so? First the UK denied us the use of Deigo Garca during the execution of Operation Epic Fury. Then Spain denied us the use of joint usage air bases in Spain so long as Operation Epic Fury was in effect. What - what? These nation states are NATO allies - so what gives? They are collectively as brave as young cats (if you know what I mean).

We don't need any help in the execution of Epic Fury. Israel and the US are doing just fine, thank you. In fact, this morning on the news it was disclosed that the US and Israel have achieved air superiority over all of Iran. That means all air defenses in Iran are gone. We could safely fly Piper Cubs over Iran's air space. But there is something else we (as well as the free world) need help on.

Iran is dead set, not matter how poorly the war is going for them, to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Why? For starters, 20% of the world's oil uses the Strait. If that oil becomes bottled up and can't deliver, the price of a barrel of crude will spike. Which means the price of gasoline will spike. But that is not all. Many goods use the Strait for commerce. We don't have enough ships on station to execute Epic Fury as well as keeping the Strait open.

Who could help keep the Strait open, so the world does not suffer needlessly? Great Britian, France, Spain, Italy, Norway, (do I need to continue?). Keeping the Strait open is the least that NATO can do to help. The US and Israel will continue on with the heavy lifting.

But this is important and is the golden nugget. For the United States and Israel to taking down Iran (who is in control of thousands of ballistic missiles and even more drones), would be a favor to the world. Why? The Mullahs are megalomaniacs. They wanted to put a nuclear warhead on some of their long-range missiles. Always been their plan. By taking Iran down now, it has saved the world a horrible event in the near future. No nation needs to thank us, just don't hinder us.

Just how is the war going? If you ask the US or Israel, they will respond by saying very well, thank you. If you ask the Supreme Leader of Iran the same question, his answer would be total silence. 

   

A little war for a whole lot of peace?

"This week the Democrats will try to muster enough votes to end this war for freedom in Iran. Why? They hate Trump so much, they would sacrifice freedom and peace in the Middle East just to get at Trump. The vote should fail, and this war for liberation and peace will continue. But when will this war end? When it is over. Trust me, nobody wants it over quicker than the brave men and women who are currently at the tip of the spear."    

In February of 1979, my wife had been married not quite five years. We had recently moved into our first house. The company I worked for housed some Iranian pilots for training on the airborne computers which the company manufactured. Through an FMS (Foreign Military Sale), the company was under contract by the Shah of Iran. Then the revolution came. Just like that, the deal was over. Our embassy staff in Iran was held hostage by the radicals in the "new" Iran for 444 days. The pilots who were onsite at the company were like orphans. No home to go back to. Then for the next almost fifty years, the world witnessed a new face of terror. Having a theocracy in Iran - has been terrible for the region - for the world. That is, until Donald Trump became president. 

It is somewhat ironic that right after the launch of the Board of Peace, the man who founded the Board would unleash his military on Iran. But this war will be different. It is a necessary war to bring about a whole lot of peace. Whereas the War on Ukraine started by Putin is nothing more than a war of conquest. The war (should it come) for Taiwan will be a war for conquest by China. Once we liberate Iran from its now unwanted theocracy, there will be no conquest by anybody. Only freedom for the people, and peace for the world. 

Donald Trump spent countless hours with his negotiation team trying to strike a deal which would bring about peace with no bloodshed. But there were three red lines which needed to be agreed to for the deal to be struck. No enriched uranium, no ballistic missiles, and free elections for the people. The answer by the team the Mullahs had sent to Geneva was "No, no and no". That was it for negotiations. Even though Trump offered "off ramps" to the Iranians, they refused. The carrot did not work, so it was time to use the stick.

This almost fifty-year nightmare needed to come to an end. Donald Trump has told the Iranian people that we are "setting the table" for their freedom, but they must finish the job by liberating themselves from their current theocracy. The problem for the unarmed people of Iran is simply this - they will be going up against what remains of the IRGC and the elite Quds Force. By the way, it is thought it was the Quds Force who was behind the massacre of the 30,000+ innocent protestors in the streets of Iran. The people remember that. The US and Isreal need to further degrade the IRGC and Quds to make an internal overthrow of the current regime more likely to succeed. 

This week the Democrats will try to muster enough votes to end this war for freedom in Iran. Why? They hate Trump so much, they would sacrifice freedom and peace in the Middle East just to get at Trump. The vote should fail, and this war for liberation and peace will continue. But when will this war end? When it is over. Trust me, nobody wants it over quicker than the brave men and women who are currently at the tip of the spear.