The benefits of war?

"What is our next move to counter drone swarms while we rapidly replenish our missile stockpile? The Navy's HELIOS laser system. It is just finishing field testing and could be deployed fleet wide in the very near future. And how exactly will they work in a true combat scenario? Good question - we might need to wait until the next war to find out. Until then, we will continue to learn as fast as we can." 

A different slant this morning. The 1969 song by Edwin Starr, War - What is it good for, have most of us nodding our head in agreement. War is a scourge. War is expensive. War is deadly. But in the case of the Iranian War, there is also an upside to that conflict. Experience. How do deal with the new global tool of warfare called drone swarms and AI. What our carriers are learning coupled with Aegis destroyers by their sides - is invaluable.

But have we learned enough? Not even close. But what we have learned has been hot lined back to the smart planners in the Pentagon to be assisted by DARPA. But that is what war is. A giant game of chess. Every move needs to be countered. We learn, they learn. Success in battle is being able to stay one step ahead of the other guys. And do date, we have done that very well. 

I worked on the Aegis program starting back in the late 1970's. To me, the more I learned about how this marvel of technology protected the fleet, seemed more like magic. And then in the 1990's I worked with on the Vertical Lauch Systems - (back then) a state-of-the-art weapon system which was hard wired into the Aegis battle system. I was amazed back then, and I am still amazed today. 

But the Aegis weapon system was not made to counter drone swarms. Now we are talking about an entirely new type of warfare. We have known about saturation attacks for years - mostly from missile volleys fired by Soviet Backfire bombers. But back then, that was all high tech and predictable. Drone swarms are not. They can come out of anywhere, from any direction, and overload even the most sophisticated detection system. And to keep taking out a $25k drone with a million-dollar missile is a fool's errand. But we are learning and learning fast.

What is our next move to counter drone swarms while we rapidly replenish our missile stockpile? The Navy's HELIOS laser system. It is just finishing field testing and could be deployed fleet wide in the very near future. And how exactly will they work in a true combat scenario? Good question - we might need to wait until the next war to find out. Until then, we will continue to learn as fast as we can. 

  

Why is Iran telling us to "bunker up" before winter?

"According to some of the weather guessers, we might have an early winter this year. Like maybe starting late next month. September is a great time to prep for the dark days ahead. Even without this dire or faux warning from Iran, September is a great month to prep for the dark and cold days ahead."

Does Iran know something we don't know? Recently, they have sent out pressers telling Americans to stockpile food, water and some kind of heat before the dark and cold days of winter. Now truthfully, in a very unsettled world, having enough survival items to last for at least a month in the wintertime is sage advice. But coming from an enemy? Are they trying to send a message that they have cyber technology which could turn our lights (and heat) off for a prolonged period this winter. It is odd to hear that coming from an enemy who wants us dead.

But before we lose too much sleep over what Iran could do to our power grid, I am reminded of General Jack Keane's words from many months ago. "Should another nation ever attack our energy grid, we will retaliate with our own cyber-attack - and our cyber warfare will bring eye watering results to any enemy". Hopefully Iran knows that. As bad as things are over there right now, we could make them a whole lot worse if they screw with our grid. 

That being said, it is good common sense to have at least one gallon of water per person, per day in your bunker. I know, I know - water takes up a lot of room. But remember this - we can go without oxygen for only a few minutes. We can go without potable water for less than a week. Food? We can last for many days without food - but not forever. Most survivalists suggest enough food and water to last at least a month, and firewood (or something) to last even longer.

The thing that keeps some of our federal cops up at night is worry about "sleeper cells" from Iran who are currently in our country. What kind of harm they could do to us. If there are indeed cells who are lying dormant in our country, we need to find them, dig them out, and get rid of them. It is best not to interfere with any federal LEOs as they are doing their jobs. Yes, even ICE is trying to keep us safe from hidden bad guys.

According to some of the weather guessers, we might have an early winter this year. Like maybe starting late next month. September is a great time to prep for the dark days ahead. Even without this dire or faux warning from Iran, September is a great month to prep for the dark and cold days ahead.

   

The 1982 Falkland Islands war - redux?

"As if we did not have enough going on in the world right now. Ukraine is still not at peace; Russia is threatening NATO left and right; Iran is still a problem for us and Israel. All in all, the world is a mess, and throwing the Falklands back into the mix will not help anyone. But before we give up and just let another war happen, look for Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to earn a bunch more frequent flier miles going to and from the world's newest trouble spot."     

Yes, I am old enough to remember this somewhat obscure war in the very south of South America. A group of islands called the Falkland Islands, all of a sudden became a hot spot in the world. They belonged to the UK (for some old treaty reason), but they sat right off the coast of Argentina. What is the best way to settle a dispute about contested land? Go to war, of course. For the next 74 days, a war which was never declared, was fought between the UK and Argentina.

As the saying goes, today, there is a new sheriff in town. That is, there is a new person in charge of Argentina. His name is Javier Milei, and he thinks the Falklands should be a part of his country, not England. The fact that England has dominion over the Falklands goes back into ancient history - like in the 1800's. But that was then and this is now.

What besides the location of the Falklands would be of interest to Argentina right now? For starters, a giant deep sea oil reserve called the Sea Lion Field. This is big enough to make a difference to both countries. Thus, the Sabre rattling has started once again. During the first war, the famed Exocet Anti-Ship Missile was used for the first time in anger. By Argentina against a British ship. The results were catastrophic for that ship. But the advent of that Exocet missile marked the change of sea warfare as we know it. 

If push comes to shove again between England and Argentina, it puts us in a very precarious position. Why? England is a NATO friend. But Argentina is part of our hemisphere, and our current administration has been working very hard on peace, tranquility and prosperity for all who live in this hemisphere. If war, declared or undeclared, breaks out - what do we do? Who do we support? In 1982, we had no problem with supporting our friends from the UK. Our relationship with Argentina was only so-so. Now however, it is different. It would be a friend fighting a friend. 

As if we did not have enough going on in the world right now. Ukraine is still not at peace; Russia is threatening NATO left and right; Iran is still a problem for us and Israel. All in all, the world is a mess, and throwing the Falklands back into the mix will not help anyone. But before we give up and just let another war happen, look for Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to earn a bunch more frequent flier miles going to and from, the world's newest trouble spot.     

 

Welcome to the trap...

 

"What is our path to more normalcy once again? Peace in the shire? Much lower gas prices? No shortages of fertilizer. If I knew that path, I would be shouting it from the highest mountain top. But I don't know that path. The scary part is I don't think our government knows that path either. Thus, here we sit - caught in a trap." 

Read an interesting article by CNN online. About how we have stumbled into a trip to nowhere. How so? Iran. We are starting to lose the vision on what winning will look like. So far, we have hit 10,000 targets in Iran - some more than once. We have sunk ships, disarmed mines, destroyed oil infrastructure, and so forth. And yet, the IRGC keeps on coming. Keeps on going. The drones and missiles keep on flying, mostly towards innocent ships in the Strait. 

Israel is in no better shape. Their chances of a decisive victory over Hezbollah are looking less and less likely. Dare I use this word from the past which is what both the US and Isreal are now facing going forward? We are mired down in battles of attrition. Who is going to blink first. Who can withstand the most pain. With both the IRGC and Hezbollah, reality has morphed into a game of Whack A Mole. We throw tons of ordnance on targets in Iran and Lebanon, and then a head pops up and says - "Still here!" 

Maybe that old saying is correct. An air campaign, no matter how effective, cannot win the day. You need to follow up an ariel pounding by having boots on the ground. Israel might have the stomach for that in Lebanon using the IDF, but there is absolutely zero stomach for that in the US. Why? It is blood and guts, smash mouth battle. Up close and personal fighting. All of a sudden, the Iranian War will have morphed from a video game to "no {blank} for real" fighting. Trump knows that as soon as he pulls the trigger on that kind of a war, the slim majority who approves of this war will vanish faster than snowbanks in July. 

Where does that leave us? Maybe we are caught in a trap. Unknowingly, and unwise - we have stumbled into another one of those Middle Eastern traps. And now, we are up against one of those dreaded forced choices. We can leave. Call it a day. Leave Iran to rebuild itself. Or we can stay. Keep pounding away with our aircraft and cruise missiles (until they run out). Or we can change the nature of the war by going all in. Kinetic fighting to the max. House to house, cave to cave. Shades of Viet Nam all over again.

So where does that leave us? As long as we are stuck with refineries which can mostly only process oil from outside of the USA, we will be subject to the vicissitudes of this Rubic's Cube type of oil pricing. In other words, even though Donald Trump has led us to a major supplier of oil, we are still caught in the same trap as other countries who are trying to get oil through the Strait. Until we can find harmony with our oil and the way we refine oil here in the states - disruptions in supply (via the Strait) will cause our gasoline prices to be "Biden-Ish". 

What is our path to more normalcy once again? Peace in the shire? Much lower gas prices? No shortages of fertilizer. If I knew that path, I would be shouting it from the highest mountain top. But I don't know that path. The scary part is I don't think our government knows that path either. Thus, here we sit - caught in a trap. 

  

What exactly is - Trump's fault?

"Before the torches and the pitchforks come out from the screaming mob, please remember this - the last thing Trump wanted to screw up his remake of the Biden economy was a forever war. But he needed to fix this cancer in the Middle East. Why? If Iran had made it to having a nuke, then other Arab countries in the area would have one also (for deterrence). But Iran wanted to use theirs. Why? Israel. Exterminate Israel. Trump (justifiably) was not going to let that happen. Nor should any of us - not now, not ever."   

Oh my! Diesel fuel is at an all-time high this morning. That is a huge burden for our farmers to carry. It will make the cost of many things go up - especially the items which need to be hauled by a common carrier truck, powered by diesel fuel. And why is that? Why is the price for a gallon of gas still around $4.00? Whose fault is that? Donald Trump's fault? According to many in the MSM, it is. According to many in the Democrat Party, they also ditto that feeling. But before we pull a Judge Roy Bean on Donald Trump, let's first dive a bit deeper.

Many, including myself, blame the war in Iran for this temporary runup in prices. To shut down the Strait of Hormuz was always a war strategy of the IRGC. Why? To have the American people put pressure on the Trump Administration that this was not worth it. And to a certain extent, they were right. They shut down the Strait, and the press as well as many American citizens who are getting squeezed by higher prices - bellyached. So, is this Trump's fault? Did he start this war? No - Iran started it almost 50 years ago. And now they are (were) inches away from developing a nuclear bomb with a valid delivery system. Donald Trump did not start this war - but he is sure trying to end it.

What are we learning? We can pound the IRGC back into the Stone Ages, and they still never give up. They have decades of entrenched and hidden enclaves in which to hide missile and drone launchers. That is all it takes to fire on a commercial ship or two trying to make it through the Strait. As soon as one gets hit, the rest of the shipping traffic slows to a crawl. Instead of over 100 ships a day going through the Strait, there are days we are lucky just to get four or five ships safely through. 

What are we doing to end this thing (other than a "cut and run")? Scott Bessent, our Treasury Secretary, has the economic tunicate squeezed around the financial neck of the IRGC about as tight as tight can be. Is that working? Seems to be - but for total success, this is going to take some time. Even though the Iranian economic is in tatters right now, and the IRGC should be crying "Uncle" - they won't give up. They just keep firing missiles and drones at innocent ships.

What else is Trump doing? Besides having an economic blockade on Iran via its seaports, the new motto is "a ship for a ship". Every time a commercial ship is hit by an Iranian missile or drone, we will take one of their commercial ships out. This will allow us to squeeze them even harder. Many "Hawks" (I am one of them), wanted Trump just to keep bombing the IRGC until we ran out of bombs. No pauses, no ceasefires, no negotiations, no MOU documents, nothing. Just bombs and bombs and bombs. That seems to be the only language the IRGC understands. Period.

Before the torches and the pitchforks come out from the screaming mob, please remember this - the last thing Trump wanted to screw up his remake of the Biden economy was a forever war. But he needed to fix this cancer in the Middle East. Why? If Iran had made it to having a nuke, then other Arab countries in the area would have one also (for deterrence). But Iran wanted to use theirs. Why? Israel. Exterminate Israel. Trump (justifiably) was not going to let that happen. Nor should any of us - not now, not ever.   

  

Is the Storm Shadow going to be the match which lights the fire in Europe?

"Our biggest hope for Russia is Putin gets retired, one way or another. So long as he has a finger on the 'red button', Europe remains in danger. I have said this before, if not for his nukes, NATO could take care of Russia during a weekend. But he does have nukes. And so long as Putin is willing to use his nukes to serve his purpose, we need to keep sleeping with one eye open."

   

Vladimir Putin, who has a knack for miscalculation, might be getting ready to stumble into the biggest miscalculation of his life. He is still considering attacking the UK. A NATO country. Why is he still thinking about doing that foolish thing? Because the UK (with the blessing of France), is not only going to supply more Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, BUT the UK is also going to give them the drawing package for the SCALP missiles to boot. For Russia, this might mean war - a wider war. A war which could easily develop into WWIII before anybody knows it.

Here is my biggest fear on how this could develop from nothing into something into everything in almost a wink of the eye. Even if Putin used ballistic missiles with conventional warheads and did considerable damage to London, that hothead who leads France (Macron) might respond to Russia with a nuke. Or even if it was only conventional missiles, Putin might respond to France with a nuke. And then we will have traveled down that slippery slope in a blink of an eye. 

We will stay on the brink of a wider war so long as Putin stays in power and certain countries in NATO are willing to risk it all just to give Putin a black eye. I thought from the jump that the UK selling Storm Shadows to Ukraine was a high-risk maneuver. And then to give Ukraine the data package on how to make their version of the SCALP missile - that was just frosting on the cake. At any time, Putin could exchange making threats for making war.

I am not trying to be a panic merchant when I say this, but when smaller hot wars are raging (like Iran and Ukraine), it is just a hop, skip and a jump to a bigger war. It is like leaving a smoldering cigarette in the forest. It does not mean a forest fire will start, but it sure increases the odds that it will.

Our biggest hope for Russia is Putin gets retired, one way or another. So long as he has a finger on the "red button", Europe remains in danger. I have said this before, if not for his nukes, NATO could take care of Russia during a weekend. But he does have nukes. And so long as Putin is willing to use his nukes to serve his purpose, we need to keep sleeping with one eye open.   

For the Strib, ICE is never nice

 

"What is wrong with the Twin Cities these days? They never used to be like this. They have gone from Ozzie and Harriet to The Munsters. I guess a better question would be what is right with the Twin Cities. The answer would be short and not too sweet. What is right with the Twin Cities today? Not much. Not much at all."

I am not a fan of the hometown newspaper. Have not been for years. It is yellow journalism. It makes no effort to hide its bias. But why? Simple answer - the population of the Twin Cities (proper) loves the kind of gruel that the Strib puts out. And what is the passion of the minions who live in Minneapolis and St. Paul? ICE. Anything and everything which can be made up and printed about ICE. And what does the chattering class in the Twin Cities not give a wit about? Fraud. Instead of fraud being looked upon as vile as a four-letter word, fraud in the Strib has become a "so what" topic.

For those of us who have been paying attention, ICE has been offered a very raw deal while operating in the Twin Cities. Operation Metro Surge became very difficult for any genuine law enforcement officers, local or federal, who were trying to uphold the law. Let me put this in as simple of terms that I can: The Twin Cities in general, treated ICE agents like crap. Period. Why? That is the question. All ICE was trying to do was uphold the immigration laws that Congress passed.

In response, the city unleashed their lawless thugs on them. Night after night. Doxxing. Fireworks. RESIST BS. Is there a reason that Texas not agree to send an ICE agent back to the Twin Cities for prosecution? A couple of reasons: 1) Keith Ellison, who has zero standing with law enforcement, and 2) The reputation the Twin Cities has for railroading cops. Texas did the right thing. ICE will investigate this agent, and if he stepped out of line, he will be punished. If, however, he did not, it is back to work for him.

Back to fraud. That has become a taboo term in many of the local press outlets. And truthfully, here is how I feel about fraud in the Twin Cities. Any Democrat who can even spell fraud should be disqualified from running for anything, anywhere. In most normal cities, the arsonist who started the fire don't get re-elected. But this is Minnesota, land of the fruits and the nuts. Ellison will probably get re-elected. Flanigan will get elected. Hotdish Amy will get elected. All of them are suspect for how much they knew about the years of fraud under their watch. And the local paper? It is ICE or nothing.

What is wrong with the Twin Cities these days? They never used to be like this. They have gone from Ozzie and Harriet to The Munsters. I guess a better question would be what is right with the Twin Cities. The answer would be short and not too sweet. What is right with the Twin Cities today? Not much. Not much at all.