Is there only one way out for Putin?

 

"What Putin does not understand is this - there are NATO countries who are also itching for a fight. Lots of bruises and bad blood left over from the Cold War. While Putin may give a jab to a country like Estonia, Poland might respond with a haymaker. And it that happens, it will be Katie bar the door."

This war with Ukraine is going from bad to very bad for Russia. Fortunately for Putin, the grim news from the battleground is softened quite a bit by Pravda. If the average Russian knew the full story on how Russia has mismanaged this war, and the terrible cost it has brought to the Russian people - the torches and pitch folks would be seen all over Mother Russia.

What does the future hold for Putin? The Ukrainians have become very motivated and smart. As Russia continues to attack civilian targets in Ukraine (hint: war crime), Ukraine continues to show off its drone acumen by attacking utility and military targets deep into Russia. What is the forecast for the next six months or so? More of the same. And that - is not to Putin's liking.

And now Putin needs to show his people, as well as the world, that Russia is not done yet. He knows this war in Ukraine is far from over, and the meatgrinder which chews up his troops is still going full speed. And the more he thinks about it, the angrier he gets. NATO. If only NATO had not supplied Ukraine with money and weapons, this war might be over now. If Putin's wrath has been stymied in Ukraine, maybe his wrath is misdirected. Maybe his wrath (and his hybrid war) is better suited for NATO. They are after all, an easy target.

More and more military experts are thinking that this toying around with a hybrid war on NATO is only Putin sharpening his pencil. That in weeks, or months, or maybe even a year, Russia will attack a NATO country. He will test the resolve of this alliance. Will Article 5 hold, or can Putin start picking off some weaker NATO countries - like the Balkans. And then, with some NATO scalps under his belt, Russia will again be looked at as a strong bear, to be feared and respected.

What Putin does not understand is this - there are NATO countries who are also itching for a fight. Lots of bruises and bad blood left over from the Cold War. While Putin may give a jab to a country like Estonia, Poland might respond with a haymaker. And it that happens, it will be Katie bar the door. Europe will once again be knee deep in war and the misery it brings. And here is where the real danger comes. If Putin feels he is losing, and if Russia starts losing to NATO, it might be time to let his nuclear genie out of the lamp. What will we have then? Maybe Armageddon. 

Another deadly Jihad plot foiled - again...

"And then to think, this nut ball who is the Mayor of New York City, wanting Netahyahu arrested for 'war crimes' - where was his outrage yesterday? Come to think of it, where is his outrage for a real war criminal like Putin? Nil heard. Radio silence. Hint to Mr. Mandami - Israel in not the enemy. They are the victims." 

I will say this much for Muslim Jihadists - they never give up. Anything to cause pain, suffering and death on their Satan's (their words) - Israel and the United States. Yesterday, just for kicks and giggles, some Jihadist who was allowed to fly a commercial airliner (don't ask me why), decided to stab the other pilot in the neck, and then take the plane down into a nosedive with 150 passengers and 24 crewmembers (most of them Israelis) on board.

The investigation on this near crime is still young. Not too much is known for certainty as of yet. There is, however, the stench of Iran's fingers being involved in it. That we will see. But here is what we do know - even without knowing it, we let our guard down. We allowed Israelis to be passengers on a plane flown by a Muslim. Has not history taught us enough? Many radicalized Muslims are still bloodthirsty, even after the horrible attack on 9/11. Anything to kill infidels (Jews and Americans).

Sometimes I wonder - is it even possible for the people living in the Middle East to feel secure? To go about their normal daily activities without worrying about being shot or blown up? Why does the culture of death always seem to trump the idea of living together with respect and peace? And just when Israelis start to think it is safe to fly an airliner other than El Al, this flight from Dubai happened. If not for a measure of luck and a ton of bravery, we could be talking about this massacre for months to come.

And then to think, this nut ball who is the Mayor of New York City, wanting Netahyahu arrested for "war crimes" - where was his outrage yesterday? Come to think of it, where is his outrage for a real war criminal like Putin? Nil heard. Radio silence. Hint to Mr. Mandami - Israel in not the enemy. They are the victims. But to those who have been poisoned by the anti-Semites, that viewpoint is hard to come by. Repeat a lie long enough and often enough (so said Joseph Goebbles), it starts to look like truth. But it is still a lie.

Thanks to luck, bravery and the Grace of God, we escaped a very bad thing yesterday. Lessons learned? I sure hope so. But then again, this may be a harbinger of the End Times...

    

  

Better, cheaper, deadlier...

 

"Warfare is changing right before our eyes. The battlefield is slowing becoming more about AI driven robotic planes and tanks, and less about humans being exposed to close up danger. By 2035, the battlefield might look more like Star Wars than what we are used to seeing."

As a young man, fresh out of college and the regular Navy, I cut my teeth (so to speak) on the AEGIS weapon system for the Navy. How long ago was that? Before the Vertical Launching System (VLS). The Navy had the USS Ticonderoga, which was going to be the lead ship (cruiser) in housing this new gee whiz radar guided weapon system. In fact, RCA (who was a customer at that time), built the AEGIS system in a mockup of a cruiser in Moorestown, NJ. It was in the middle of a corn field, and the local folks were fascinated by it. As a contractor, I toured it - than once.

From there I went to working on the VLS system. It was hooked right into the AEGIS system. I worked for FMC and was teamed with Lockheed Martin. It was the highest of tech back in the day. Big, deadly and expensive. The VLS was going to be on cruisers and the new Arleigh Burke destroyers. But the problems for the future were already starting to show up. The crane system for loading new canisters while the VLS ship was underway - did not work and was scrapped. In its place was - nothing. In a fight, when either a VLS cruiser or destroyer ran out of missiles, that ship had to leave the fight. That was a huge problem and plagues the Navy to this day.

This brings us up to today. In this new and crazy world of drone swarms, yesterday's VLS with all those expensive SM2 missiles are not the right cure. The call has gone out from the administration to the defense contractors - the Navy needs missiles which are better, cheaper and deadlier. And the VLS as it is configured today, might have seen its better days. We need to have a re-load ability on ALL our ships, so if a fight comes - they can stay in the fight. Right now, however, we are still fighting tomorrow's wars with yesterday's stuff. Trump wants that fixed ASAP.

Tomorrow's solution to drone swarms at sea will probably rest in the new laser systems. Those plus a newer and better version of the rail gun. The days of killing an insect with a sledgehammer are going to be over soon. Now with the Navy's HELIOS laser system being installed on our war fighting ships, the era of the drone swarm being effective against navies such as ours - might be ending soon. But we will still need missiles - anti-ship missiles and land attack cruise missiles. And that problem is being addressed by companies such as Lockeed Martin right now.

Warfare is changing right before our eyes. The battlefield is slowing becoming more about AI driven robotic planes and tanks, and less about humans being exposed to close up danger. By 2035, the battlefield might look more like Star Wars than what we are used to seeing. But for right now, the standing orders are better, cheaper and deadlier. Will our Navy be the biggest in 2035? Maybe not - but it will be the best. Count on it.  

What exactly is in Pandor's Box?

 

"As we walk somewhat blindly into the brave new world of AI, Pandora's Box remains in the middle of our path. It is out there, and whatever good or bad lies inside of it, has yet to be released. But someday in the future it will be released - either on purpose or by accident. Stay tuned - this story is far from over."

Are we ready for the future? And what is our future? It depends upon whom you ask. Some panic merchants are saying that what in inside the AI Pandora's Box is a genie which when released which will be the end of us all. How so? Remember the movie War Games? Or I Robot? The future looks bleak in the world of Hollywood. But is it really bleak? Or is it the key to our future with a cornucopia of good things yet to come?

Here is the conundrum that President Trump finds himself in. Does he listen to the IT panic merchants which paint a dystopian future should we not have the proper guardrails? Or does he listen to his Pentagon planners which warn a self-imposed slowdown in AI development would hand the AI lead position over to China? And according to the wizards of smart at the War Department, losing this race would be very bad news for us - indeed.

But here is the mystery of the moment. What is in the box? Can we just peek inside without releasing something bad or evil? Or is this just a big fat nothing burger? Here is the interesting part of this dilemma - nobody, not one soul (no matter how smart or informed on AI) - knows the answer. Pandora's Box is a true Pandora's Box in this situation. And that - is 100% true. 

How does China look at this issue? Do they also see a big risk in the road ahead? Seems not to. Full speed ahead. Catch the Americans at any cost. But here is the irony. Should what is hiding in this AI Pandor's Box be something which can danger mankind, it will know no boundaries. It would endanger not only all who live in China, but also everybody who lives on Planet Earth.

Just the other day, one of our AI developers came up with a new version of their product which they refused to release to the general public. Why? According to this company, the decryption feature of this new version would make every current encryption obsolete. Thus, until this company can figure out how to hold this tiger by the tail, it stays under wraps. But this is an American company. It gives one pause to think - if we can discover this new magic on what AI can do, can China stumble upon it also? What would they do with it?

As we walk somewhat blindly into the brave new world of AI, Pandora's Box remains in the middle of our path. It is out there, and whatever good or bad lies inside of it, has yet to be released. But someday in the future it will be released - either on purpose or by accident. Stay tuned - this story is far from over.

    

 

The crucible of 2028

"Maybe if we could elect somebody in 2028 who is halfway between Biden and Trump. And the people serving in the House and Senate could be of the same ilk. Okay - that is no longer reality. We have the DSA types, just chomping at the bit to really muck our country up even more. Not to be a male version of a Debby Downer, but that is how I see things right now." 

In just a few months, we will have the long awaited (or dreaded) midterm elections. I have taken the pulse of the loyalists as well as I am able using comments posted on social media. Bottom line? 2026 might need some kind of Hail Mary or major October Surprise to stem this blue tide which is now offshore. If Donald Trump losses the House and Senate (which he could), the final two years of his term could be death by a thousand cuts. Meaning what? The Trump Train will go from screaming down the tracks of prosperity, to only a slow crawl. The fun will be over kids.

But having this kind of correction in off-year politics is not unusual. What could follow in 2028 would be unusual. The Democrats could use the 2023 elections in Minnesota as a model. Call it the Democrat Minnesota Miracle. That is where any remaining Republicans are legislatively exterminated out of governing. In Minnesota, it was called the Trifecta. For the national Democrats, it might just be called Nirvana.

What could be on the 2028 Democrat wish list? The usual suspects. Defund parts of the military; defund the police; reverse all Trump's tax cuts; re-fund the UN and NPR; pass Medicare for all, even though the cost of this program will bankrupt everything; the list goes on and on. We have seen most of it before. It is long and not glorious.

What is bad for our country? Let's ignore the differences between the two parties just for a minute. Instead, let's address the problem with the constant seismic swings in the country every time there is a change of political management. The change from Bush II to Obama was huge. The change from Obama to Trump (first term) was epic. Then came Biden. The undoing of everything Trump and everything normal under Biden was beyond epic - it was disastrous. And then for fixing of the broken during Trump term # 2, is now low fruit on the tree for Democrats to dismantle in 2028. Meanwhile, the changes will continue to make the citizens dizzy and disoriented.

Maybe if we could elect somebody in 2028 who is halfway between Biden and Trump. And the people serving in the House and Senate could be of the same ilk. Okay - that is no longer reality. We have the DSA types, just chomping at the bit to really muck our country up even more. Not to be a male version of a Debby Downer, but that is how I see things right now. 

   

A new name for everything bad

"Putin is a world class war criminal, and he is still on the loose in Europe. Will he be the turd in the punchbowl going forward? Could be - and that would be bad for all of us."     

I guess the term "war" for only being three letters long, has turned into a four-letter word. How so? Even though we are at war, we will not call it a war. In our country, the Iranian War is called something else - like an operation or something. I guess that is a way to skirt around some of the legal nuances of the War Powers Act. But we are not the only country who is using synonyms for war - so is Russia.

The current war in Ukraine, which is the bloodiest Euro event since the end of WWII, is not called a war by Putin. It is called an SVO, or SMO - which stands for Special Military Operation. Now before anybody hits the "so what" button, let me explain why this is such a big "so what". The intelligence sources by our allies in NATO are blinking bright red warning lights right now. A well-founded rumor has Russia sending out a communication to its armed forces to prepare for another SMO in the near term. However, the rumor also has it that communication was pulled down as it might have gone to an audience which should not have received it.

Putting that aside, the Euro intelligence services are still certain that Russia's intent is to harass NATO countries using this new "hybrid" type of war. Cyber-attacks, drone incursions, violation of NATO air space by Russia military jets - everything which could lead up to a hot war (or SMO) but not cross that threshold. But some analysts believe that crossing that threshold could be coming sooner rather than later. Like, months instead of years. 

All this talk of war and rumors of war has led to a frenzy in weapons procurement within NATO. Especially now, when Trump has dropped an inkle that the US might not be as involved in Euro NATO as much as we have been in the past. Time for the kids to grow up and take care of the big, bad bear without us. Some in NATO are up for the fight - Poland being the bravest of them all. But others, like the Balkans, know they will be easy prey for a hungry bear.

What is going on inside the head of Putin? What is going inside of his heart? Has he telegraphed his punches enough so we can see the future? Is war, years of messy war, in our future? Or will cooler heads prevail?

Putin is a world class war criminal, and he is still on the loose in Europe. Will he be the turd in the punchbowl going forward? Could be - and that would be bad for all of us.     

Somewhere in another universe...

 

"In this universe, as we all know, Trump decided on the tough course. The course which would stunt the economy, taint his presidency, and surrender the midterms. Was he right to do so? Many Republicans are now saying no - he should have stayed out of Iran's business. But - if Trump's pressure can get Iran to surrender their nukes, history will look favorably on this path. Will it cost Trump and the down ticket this November? Odds are - it will."

Please don't hang up the phone yet. I know - the title of this blog piece sounds a bit bazaar. Many scientists worldwide however, without a shred of proof, believe we do NOT live in a universe - but rather a multiverse. That there are duplicates of us all over the place, and out of the uncounted versions of outcomes to any situation, we only see one of them. There - now that I have set the table, I will get on with what this article is really about.

In an alternate universe, Donald Trump is still president, and Neyanyahu is still in charge of Israel. And yes, Iran is still on the path to have at least one nuclear bomb and have it quickly. In this universe, the American people, as well as Donald Trump, have zero desire to upset the apple cart of our economy by getting into a war with Iran. Even though Netanyahu has been begging Trump to do so. Trump listened to his friend Bibi, and time after time, turned him down. "But Mr. President, we have to do something. If we need to, we will go it alone." Trump felt bad about his decision, but he was NOT going to fall into the same trap other presidents have fallen into - endless, expensive Middle Eastern wars. The economy was nothing less than historic - a Middle Eastern war would muck that all up. The answer was still no.

Finally, in total frustration, Bibi flew to Washington for a face to face with Trump. Netanyahu knew this was a "Hail Mary", but he needed to do it. The future of Israel might be at stake. In the White House meeting, Bibi said, "Mr. President - our intelligence sources, and probably yours also, show that Iran is three months top away from having a nuclear warhead to put on a ballistic missile. We will do what we can to slow this down, but we might not have the "horses" left to do much. We are still fighting Hezbollah and the Houthis. With the help of the United States, we would prevail, but without you, it will be a very tough slog for us to win."

President Trump listened politely to his friend from Israel. "Bibi, Iran has been a thorn in many nations' side for the past 50 years. We would like Iran just to go away - one way or the other. I know this will sound shallow, but I need to think about America first. Not Israel. Not Iran. Many other presidents have passed the buck on fixing Iran. As much as I hate to do it, I will do the same. Having an economy which will last for generations is way too important to squander it on some endless war. Sorry - the answer is still no. Let the next president worry about fixing it."

In that universe, the economy is still roaring. Gas is cheap, and the Biden inflation on food is starting to lose its grip. Trump's numbers are good, and the midterms look like the red team will buck the odds and keep the House and Senate. Life is good, and it is a great time to be an American. That is, until 2027, when five ICMB missiles were detected by radar to have been launched. Two were on a course to Israel - the other three were on a course for New York, Washington and Chicago. Right then, at that point in time, when millions of Americans had minutes left to live - the price of a gallon of gas meant very little. We had missed our chance to snub out Iran - now they are a North Korea type nuclear power. And unlike North Korea, Iran has decided to use its nukes.

In this universe, as we all know, Trump decided on the tough course. The course which would stunt the economy, taint his presidency, and surrender the midterms. Was he right to do so? Many Republicans are now saying no - he should have stayed out of Iran's business. But - if Trump's pressure can get Iran to surrender their nukes, history will look favorably on this path. Will it cost Trump and the down ticket this November? Odds are - it will.