Beware of the faux job reports!

"Is there a golden fleece out there, or is it all gloom and doom? I believe those who are cleaver, nimble and ambitious will find that pot of gold. Those who are not, will need to learn how to get by on some kind of GNI (Guaranteed National Income)." 

Last month's job report is out, and the corks are popping all over (with some folks)! But what does these new jobs report really tell us? That we added more jobs than expected, so our unemployment rate ticked down a bit. Or - did it? The U6 unemployment rate (boy, it has been a while since I have addressed the U6!), showed the actual unemployment rate went up to 8%. Why does this matter? Because if you get frustrated with finding a job, and just drop out, nobody counts you for anything. That is, except for the U6 unemployment rate. 8% of the people in this country who could work and are not working - is a big number.

Did you hear about Oracle? Larry Ellison, one of the richest people of the world and owner of Oracle, just axed 30,000 via an email this past week. Right before Easter. Why does this matter? Microsoft also just laid off 6,000 employees. And Alphabet, parent company of Google is in the process of laying off 2,500 employees. These are companies which have always had huge growth potential. And they will keep growing - only with less human employees and more AI infusion.

As we continue through this decade, buckle up. Many jobs are going to become more tenuous and temporary. Jobs which were once believed to be unreplaceable, will be replaced by automation. Sorry - this is the brave new world. This is going to become a much bigger problem as we slide into 2030. Will there be jobs out there? Some, yes - and good paying ones at that. But they will be niche jobs that require a certain type of expertise and training. The kind of jobs we are not educating our young folks for.

Anybody who has either owned a business or did the financials for a business, knows this immutable fact - human employees are expensive and messy. Messy? They need time off for maternity. Time off for military. Time off for being sick. Vacation. They only work between 40 - 50 hours per week. The list goes on and on. Automated jobs on the other hand, don't take lunch breaks. No vacations. No sick leave. No raises needed. Bottom line? To stay competitive in our brave new world, will cut as much expense as possible out of the workforce, while still being more effective and efficient every quarter. That will be the key to success. 

We need to stop preparing and training for yesterday's jobs. We need to break out the crystal ball and really focus on where the human jobs will be tomorrow. Next year. Five years from now. We need to think long term and short term at the same time. Is there a golden fleece out there, or is it all gloom and doom? I believe those who are cleaver, nimble and ambitious will find that pot of gold. Those who are not, will need to learn how to get by on some kind of GNI (Guaranteed National Income). 

 

Could this be - a new forever war?

"If this is all true, what are our options? Call it a day in two weeks and head for home? Call in Marine tunnel rats and Army door kickers to settle in for a prolonged boots on the ground mission? Set up shop with our Navy on station and continue looking for high value targets? More and better bunker busters in the offing?" 

What I am going to put forward is not yet 100% verified. But the signs are pointing towards that it might just be true. In March, Iran released a video of its massive underground Missile City. Somes areas of this multi-cave underground city are decoys. Others are still works in progress. But the Iranians have been working on this underground city for decades. Why? For a time such as this. When they can take a hit and still come out fighting.

The story has it, that Iran still has in its possession, tens of thousands of missiles and drones. All buried in tunnels hundreds of meters below granite mountains. Beyond our best bunker busters? Maybe. If that is the case, what is our remedy? Israel's remedy? Anybody? If they have their infrastructure set up to fight for decades, does this mean the Iranian war could develop into a (gasp!) - forever war? If so, were does that leave us? We have after all, vowed NEVER to get involved in another forever war.

This reminds me of the Gazan tunnels, only on steroids. We had no idea in the labyrinth of tunnels under Gaza where the hostages were being kept. In Iran, the Zagro Mountains were used as cover. Some of the Missile City tunnels are buried deep under those mountains. Like over 400 meters deep. Deeper than our bunker busters can reach.

Some think that Iran has been planning for this war for years - maybe decades. They lured the US and Isreal into a conflict which Iran knew, could not be won by the infidels. They would wear them out - use missiles against their Middle East allies. Maybe sink a carrier. They knew the Americans did not have the stomach for a multi-year war. They could outlast any enemy. They have enough missiles and drones to last just about forever.

If this is all true, what are our options? Call it a day in two weeks and head for home? Call in Marine tunnel rats and Army door kickers to settle in for a prolonged boots on the ground mission? Set up shop with our Navy on station and continue looking for high value targets? More and better bunker busters in the offing? 

The future in Iran has gone from somewhat clear to very cloudy. None of our options look good right now. We might just have lit the match for an all-out Middle East war, involving just about everyone. Our intentions have been honorable, our execution has been next to flawless, but our intel seems to have had a Missile City size hole in it. And the beat goes on.  

Meanwhile, in another reality...

"For a short period of time, gas will be over $4/gal. Bid deal. Fertilizer will be more expensive for a while. But to "de-nuke" Iran, this is all worth it. Trump's numbers are down because of this needed war, but he does not care. Why not? He cares more about America than his numbers. It has been, still is, and always will be America first for Donald Trump. This war is only part of it."   

Go with me just for a while. I am going to pretend we are in another universe, another reality. Here we go!

Donald Trump has just won the election. He is now the 47th POTUS. He won by promising America first, all the time. The world was a mess, thanks to the narcoleptic Joe Biden. But that was then and this now. One of the first calls that Trump received to congratulate him was from Bibi Netanyahu. "Mr. President, we need to address this issue in Iran and do it fast. They are months, maybe weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. I have talked to President Biden until blue in the face, but he thought he could just buy the regime off. That is not working."

Donald Trump listened politely. He had known Bibi for years and liked him. But he promised America first, and he was sticking to it. "Sorry Bibi. No more wars. We are not getting involved in sending more weapons to Ukraine, and we are not getting involved with Iran. Que sera sera Bibi, whatever will be will be. Now have a nice day and say hi to your wife."

Four years passed, and Iran is stronger and more truculent than ever. But Trump stuck to America first, and no more wars. The new president was about to be sworn in. Gavin Newsom from California. The Strait of Hormuz had been closed down for two years now, and Iran was choosing which ships to let through and how much of a fee those ships would pay. No country (except the United States) had enough military muscle to stop Iran from doing this. Finally, France had enough. If the United States was not going to open up the Strait, France would.

France sent in their prized aircraft carrier, the Charles De Gaull. As soon as the De Gaull entered the Red Sea, a bright flash erupted. Just like that, the De Gaull was gone. A nuclear missile from Iran had hit the De Gaull and destroyed her. Almost at the same time, another flash went off over Paris. Then came the warning from Iran. We have more nukes and are not afraid to use them.

President Elect Newsom immediately blamed Donald Trump. "You had four years to stop these guys, and you did nothing! Now we have a rogue nuclear power in the Middle East. It is like having another North Korea. You will go down in history Donald Trump, as the president who allowed this to happen."

Now - back to reality. Donald Trump still does believe in America first, but he is also a realist. He knew that if the Iranian threat was not addressed, bad things would happen in the near future. Maybe to Israel, maybe to Europe, maybe to us. Trump saw Iran as an existential threat to everybody. Only the US had the military muscle and the acumen to take Iran's regime out. The team of the US and Israel was just what was needed.

For a short period of time, gas will be over $4/gal. Bid deal. Fertilizer will be more expensive for a while. But to "de-nuke" Iran, this is all worth it. Trump's numbers are down because of this needed war, but he does not care. Why not? He cares more about America than his numbers. It has been, still is, and always will be America first for Donald Trump. This war is only part of it.   

    

Water woes...

"If you live in Denver, Las Vegas, Tucson or Pheonix, you might need to think about moving - soon. When 'Day Zero' happens, you could not give houses away in cities which have no water. Think about that chip manufacturer who just built a huge plant in Phoenix. Chip manufacturing takes lots of water. What were they thinking? They were not thinking at all."  

News flash! Our world is awash in water. Over 70% of the planet is full of water. Now the bad news. Most of that 70% is non-potable water. Good for saltwater fishes, and that is about it. Our nation has had water since the get-go. But now we have some challenges which have been ignored for years. In particular, we have some of our larger cities which are starting to run out of drinking water. And when that happens, those cities will have to migrate to "Plan B". The only problem is - there is no "Plan B".

Four of the harder hit cities are Las Vegas, Denver, Tucson, and Pheonix. Western cities, who are in the middle of a serious multi-decade drought. Here is the issue - those cities continue to grow, and the available water continues to shrink. Snowpacks, which are the lifeblood of the west, are not what they once were. Lake Powell and Lake Meade are close to "dead pool" status. The once mighty Colorado River has way too many straws coming out of it, and it too is shrinking. 

Most Americans use about 80 gallons of water per day. Oh yes - we use water for just about everything. The last gasp before the taps run dry, is when cities go on a mandatory rationing program. That is where only 8 to 10 gallons per person per day will be allowed. That would be a huge problem for many. However, when "Day Zero" comes, there will be no water to use. Zip. Taps run dry. Mexico City has flirted with that day for years. Pheonix might only be five years away from "Day Zero". And then what?

When I say there is no "Plan B" for these cities, there really is no plan should "Day Zero" come. We have been warned about this situation for years. We have done nothing. For example, the number of desalination plants we have built in the last couple of decades is peanuts. With almost 100,000 miles of shoreline (including Alaska and Hawaii), a few dozen well placed desalination plants could be a lifeline to thirsty cities. But these plants take time to build. Permitting is required. NIMBY needs to be overcome. With Phoenix only being five years from "Day Zero", we really need to start on these plants yesterday.

MIT is developing something known as Atmospheric Water Generation (AWG). It would be taking water out of the air, even in low humidity. That is the good news. The bad news - it is only in the development phase. Years away, maybe many decades away from having it scaled where it could be used for cities. For a current crisis like we have right now, it is too little, too late.

If you live in Denver, Las Vegas, Tucson or Pheonix, you might need to think about moving - soon. When "Day Zero" happens, you could not give houses away in cities which have no water. Think about that chip manufacturer who just built a huge plant in Phoenix. Chip manufacturing takes lots of water. What were they thinking? They were not thinking at all.  

  

 

Can Iran ever be our friend again?

"War is a crappy thing - it really is. But a threat like Iran needed to be taken very seriously. The US and Israel had no choice but to go to battle with them. We know the regime lied to us over and over again over the past few years. How could we tell when they were lying? When their lips moved."   

Lots and lots of bad blood right now between the regime in Iran and US. Even with the regime gone, can we ever have a normal relationship again? Ever? I don't know - but then again, there is Viet Nam. Our relationship with Viet Nam is good right now. Maybe not perfect, but good. And how about out WWII enemies? Germany? Good. Japan? Better than good. I guess time will tell. But before the end of the day (so to speak) in Iran, much more hurt is yet to come.

Here is what I do not understand. What we are doing in going to war with the regime right now, is for the good of the world. Good of Europe. Really for the good of Israel. And yet, I read an article which said American Jews are against this war (figures). What do the American Jews want? A nuclear Iran which could wipe out Israel? Sometimes I wonder where American Jews are really at. They side with the progressives up to the point of throwing Israel under the bus.

Europe is also against this war. They think it is "our war" instead of being peacekeepers for the world. Even though they now have seen Iranian missiles can reach every city in Europe. Do they want to take the chance of getting nuked by some pissed off Mullah five years down the road? What is wrong with Europe today? They have gone soft in the belly (NOT Poland), and many now wonder if Europe will ever have our back again.

This war will come to a conclusion. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Donald Trump will force the issue by taking out every speck of power that Iran has left. That includes Kharg Island. It is really too bad that the Iranian people will have to suffer for a while. But to make the juice worth the squeeze, we need to finish the job. We would have preferred that the Mullahs and their henchmen in the regime just called it quits. But it is what it is. Soon, it will be time for lights out in Iran.

War is a crappy thing - it really is. But a threat like Iran needed to be taken very seriously. The US and Israel had no choice but to go to battle with them. We know the regime lied to us over and over again over the past few years. How could we tell when they were lying? When their lips moved.   

A new solution to an old problem?

 

"Few wars ever fought have been clean and easy. Just ask Putin about Ukraine. This war in Iran is starting to get messy. There are no easy solutions right now. A quick surrender by the regime would have been nice, but now it looks like that is not in the cards. Meanwhile, the pain at the pump continues to get more painful."    

After weeks of combat in Iran, we need to face facts. We have degraded their military. Sunk their navy. Killed their leadership. Destroyed their air force. And neutralized their air defense system. With all of that, we probably did not get all the snakes out of the ground. In other words, the regime still stands. Missiles still fly towards Israel and Arab countries. And the most vexing problem of all, the Strait of Hormuz - remains a big problem. 

The Saudis and the UAE have come up with a solution to this problem. Keep the ship traffic away from Iran as much as possible. Why? For ship captains, making it through the Strait is tantamount to in the old west, making it in and out of a box canyon. Plus, because the threats are numerous from the sea, under the sea and from air, many captains (and the insurance agents), are opting for a "no go" posture instead. The result? Merchant shipping stacked up like cordwood in the Persian Gulf. 

For about $200B, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could build a canal through the desert. One which would bypass the dreaded Strait of Hormuz. On the plus side, this could be an answer to a very old problem. Oil could once again flow, LNG ships could again pass, and the world would not be on pins and needles, worrying about 20% of oil and gas being unavailable. 

But there also is a dark side. One ballistic missile coming from Iran, could put this new canal out of business for months or longer. Even the Houthis from Yemen could be party poopers to this new and innovative idea. Waves of drones, coming in over the desert, could bring shipping to a dead stop. What would that mean? This new canal would need to be guarded like it was Fort Knox. It would mean the United States would have a more permanent presence in the Middle East.

One more thing. This new canal (if built) would take some time. Time the world does not have in waiting for improvements in getting oil and gas to needy customers. Already, one of the major LNG facilities has been damaged by the Iranians, and estimates are three to five years to totally repair. Until it is fixed - then what? 

Trump is toying with the idea of not waiting for the last remaining snakes in Iran to be eliminated. That could take a long time, wasting expensive munitions. He might go back on this word and send in the Marines and some Army units. Boots on the ground. Why? Fixing this problem by air will only work so good for so long. Our Marines and Army "door kickers" are trained and ready to do some close quarter fighting to fix things. But it could be bloody. Our body count could go much higher in a short period of time. Is that the risk worth taking? 

Few wars ever fought have been clean and easy. Just ask Putin about Ukraine. This war in Iran is starting to get messy. There are no easy solutions right now. A quick surrender by the regime would have been nice, but now it looks like that is not in the cards. Meanwhile, the pain at the pump continues to get more painful.    

Clowns on the town

 

"Some who were protesting, were current or past teachers. Remember that folks - these clowns are the ones who are sowing the seeds on idiocy in our youth. It was a reflection yesterday on just how far off base the Democrats have come. How do I know they were Democrats? Republicans don't act like clowns, for all to see."

As I was channel surfing on YouTube last night, I saw somebody interviewing a shrink about this display of unhappiness which infiltrated many of the big, blue cities yesterday. When the shrink asked what was wrong with these useful idiots, he was at a loss to explain. Let's just say, many are unhappy in their lives, and all that unhappiness and rage is focused on Donald J. Trump. Of course, there are other theories which abound. Like - secular humanism. Why that? The day before Holy Week should be a time of reflection, not a time of reaction.

I watched a bit of it on the news this morning. A wee bit is all I could stand before I felt the urge to wretch. Grown adults, some needing assisted living, parading around dressed as chickens, frogs, lice and so forth. And to what end? As Shakespeare would say, "lots of sound and fury, signifying nothing." When it was all said and done, there were mountains of garbage, arrests for acting like morons, and loads of video tape for the authorities to sift through to eventually grab more evil doers.

Some who were protesting, were current or past teachers. Remember that folks - these clowns are the ones who are sowing the seeds on idiocy in our youth. It was a reflection yesterday on just how far off base the Democrats have come. How do I know they were Democrats? Republicans don't act like clowns, for all to see. Plus, Republicans, if they were going to march for anything, would be a "No King but Jesus" march. Why? Many Democrats may not believe it, but it is true.

Will there be more "No Kings" rallies in the future? Count on it. Why is that? It sure beat working or serving. In the land of self-first, the selfish will always outnumber the selfless. Maybe next time the theme could be "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band." Why is that? Because even though the throngs yesterday were measured to be in the thousands, these were some very lonely and miserable people. Where was the joy? Not present. Not ever for this group. Sorry about that.