Has NATO already joined the battle for Ukraine?

"The question remains to be answered - has NATO already joined this war. I guess my short answer would be yes. Could Ukraine have won this war against a vastly superior opponent without the help of NATO? Probably not. The best thing for Russia to do right now is withdraw and then sue for peace. And Putin? Send him to the Hauge for trial. He deserves no less."  

I will say this much for Macron of France as well as the new government in the UK - they know a bully when they see one. And of course, that bully in the Euro Zone right now is none other than "blood thirsty" Putin. What has Putin done so far which has been right and honorable in the war on (with) Ukraine? Nada. Zip. What has he done wrong so far? Invaded a sovereign country with no provocation from Ukraine. Targeted civilians in true war criminal fashion. Has Putin been on the side of the angels by doing so? If you look at what Russia has lost so far in blood and treasure, it does not seem so. Short of Putin using a tactical nuke on Ukraine, Ukraine just might win this war.

What has really got Putin's jaw put out of place has been the generous help that Ukraine is getting from NATO (including us). And of all the money and items that Ukraine has received from NATO, the two items which are really ticking Putin off the most, is receiving the classified manufacturing drawings from France and the UK on how to build the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. With this knowledge in hand on how to build missiles which can reach deep into Russia, the good citizens of Moscow are no longer observers to this war - they are now participants.

Russia has told NATO countries many times that if they are supplying weaponry to Ukraine for use against Russia, they are no longer neutral observers - they are participants. As such, Putin has threatened the UK and France with a direct attack by Russia. By now, all this bluster from Putin has been written off as just that. NATO, which is many times stronger than Ukraine (who is winning the war against Russia), does not seem very nonplussed by Russian threats. In fact, the big, bad boogie man of Europe, is just vapor over substance. Even shaking his nukes at NATO does not seem to bring much of a response.

One would have thought that after going through the torture than Russia went through under Hitler in WW II, there would have been more sympathy and empathy for Ukraine. Nope - not a drop. Rather than learning from the heinous things the Nazis did in WW II to Russia, Putin decided to do more of the same. War criminal stuff. Sorry to say this, but whatever punishment is dished out to Russia by Ukraine, is all deserved. It is that reaping what you sow thing.

The question remains to be answered - has NATO already joined this war. I guess my short answer would be yes. Could Ukraine have won this war against a vastly superior opponent without the help of NATO? Probably not. The best thing for Russia to do right now is withdraw and then sue for peace. And Putin? Send him to the Hauge for trial. He deserves no less.  

 

A mystery trip to Russia

"This is one to stay very close to. Something bigger than normal is up, and it could (say again - could) be very serious. I know from the days when I had a high-level clearance in the Navy, what the press was reporting, and what was really going on were not similar at all. Just know that is probably the same today. We know only a fraction of what is really happening."   

Back in the day, before the Soviet Union broke up, there was a horrible incident between the Soviet military and a civilian aircraft. KAL flight 007, from New York to Seoul (via Anchorage). Towards the end of the flight, the aircraft accidentally strayed over Soviet airspace. Rather than acting like a civilized nation and escort the plane back into international airspace, the Soviet Sukhoi Su-15 shot this civilian aircraft out of the sky. All on board were killed. The real Russia showed its hand. I was not surprised. I knew from my time in the Navy one immutable fact - you can never trust a Russian. Never, ever.

Earlier this week, a Globemaster C-17 (including a mobile SCIF), took off on a secret mission to Moscow to have an emergency meeting with Russian leadership. On board the plane was John Ratcliffe, our CIA Director. A message was sent to Ukraine asking them to stop any missile or drone attacks on Russia while Ratcliffe was in country. The Globemaster landed, a very brief meeting was held, and then Radcliffe and team left for home. Who Ratcliffe met with, what the subject was, and was there any resolution - are all unanswered questions.

Not only do we have unanswered questions, but the entire mystery also concerning this flight to Moscow has got the rumor mill buzzing. As it appears right now, the leading candidates for what would have our CIA Director fly halfway around the world for a very brief meeting with Russia are the following:

Theory One - Our intel has picked up chatter that because Russia is doing poorly in Ukraine right now, and might actually lose the war, Putin is considering using tactical nukes in Ukraine. Ratcliffe went to warn Putin not to do it - or else. 

Theory Two - Our intel has picked up that Russia has supplied a nuke for Iran to use against us or Israel. Ratcliffe went to warn Russia to retrieve that nuke, as if Iran used it against us or Israel - it would mean a war which nobody wants.

Theory Three - This is the one which appears to have the most legs. Russia is so upset with certain NATO countries that missiles like the Storm Shadow, are being sent to Ukraine to be used against Russia. These missiles (a product of the UK and France), are very accurate and have enough range to strike deep into Russia. Our intel has picked up chatter that Russia is getting ready to expand the Ukraine War into certain NATO countries. If that happened, Article 5 of the NATO Agreement would take over, and the entire Euro Zone would be at war. Ratcliffe went to warn Putin should that happen - we would also be involved.

Theory Four - We have no clue. It would be something else which really mattered.

For a while yesterday, there was not a peep on any of the news channels about this trip. To find out about it, you needed to dig deep into non-traditional news sources. Today however, is a different matter. This mystery is being talked about everywhere. Could I see either the Iranian War or the Ukraine War spreading? Absolutely. Could I see China getting involved with Russia? Again - yes. 

This is one to stay very close to. Something bigger than normal is up, and it could (say again - could) be very serious. I know from the days when I had a high-level clearance in the Navy, what the press was reporting, and what was really going on were not similar at all. Just know that is probably the same today. We know only a fraction of what is really happening.   

Why is Russia itching for another fight?

"Will this be the end of Russia? Probably not - but it might be the end of Putin. Putin, who decided to take on history, might find out that history will not be kind to him. Nor should it be. With blood dripping from his fingers, Putin has nothing to offer the world. Not - one - thing."

Rule One - in today's world, very few international things happen by accident. Most drip with intentionality. When Russia has some drones or cruise missiles which just so happen to stray over borders into NATO land, that is no accident. For Russia to say otherwise is BS all in capitals. Then why in the world, after getting his butt handed to him by Ukraine, would Putin desire another fight? Especially with a much stronger organization like NATO? Pure and simple - Putin is a megalomaniac. Just like Hitler, Putin is a megalomaniac. 

First the battle over Ukraine. ICYMI, Putin is about to lose control over Crimea. Remember Crimea? The part of Ukraine which Putin illegally annexed during the Barry Obama administration? Why bring up Obama? Because we did NOTHING to stop Putin from this brazen example of adventurism. But that was 2014. Today, because Russia has grown weaker and Ukraine stronger, Ukraine stands ready to right this wrong from 2014. And after Crimea goes back to Ukraine, the Donbas Region of Ukraine will be next to return to Ukraine. Plus, if Russia is not careful, Ukraine might end up taking part of Russia.

But NATO - that is something different to Putin. First and foremost, Putin hates NATO and everything it stands for. The Soviet Union should have NEVER lost to NATO in the first place. Whereas getting Ukraine back in the Russian fold was just something which needed to be done, giving NATO a black eye (or worse), is something which is long overdue. And Poland, that pesky nation of Poland - they should be the first to go. What to the Poles think about that? Bring it on, Putin. The animosity Putin has for Poland is only eclipsed by the unbridled hatred that Poland has for Russia.

Here is the truth as I see it from my perch. When big, bad Russia decided to invade Ukraine and make short work of this neighboring country, Russia made one huge error. They showed the world they are a paper tiger. But they are a paper tiger with nukes. If Russia did not have nukes, they would be nothing more than a nothing burger. Besides the pain, injury, death and cost this war has meant to Ukraine, one thing positive did come out of it. They became a modern-day version of The Mouse that Roared. In less than five years, Ukraine has gone from a bunch of farmers and accountants, to one of the premier drone manufacturers in the world. And with those drones, they are kicking Russia's butt each day, every day. 

If Russia does take a swing at NATO, the first thing which will probably happen is Russia will lose Kaliningrad. That is a cold hard fact. Kaliningrad sits on a perch right now which is precarious at best. But there is another huge problem for Putin. His country is starting to hate him for what he has done to Russia during this war with Ukraine. It was bad enough when tens of thousands of Russia's young men were dying in Ukraine, but now the war has come home to Russia. Ukraine can reach deep into Russia. To muster any stomach by the Russian people to put up with a war with NATO might be a bridge too far for Putin. Plus, unlike Ukraine, NATO also has nukes.

Will this be the end of Russia? Probably not - but it might be the end of Putin. Putin, who decided to take on history, might find out that history will not be kind to him. Nor should it be. With blood dripping from his fingers, Putin has nothing to offer the world. Not - one - thing.  

Oh Canada - again!?!

"We need to get back to the art of the deal, and not have other countries think we are trying to execute the art of the steal. One other rule of negotiations I learned. Never negotiate over the phone. Way too easy to say no. We need Trump and Carney to meet face to face and hammer this thing out. Egos need to be checked at the door, and a reasonable deal needs to be struck. The American people, the Canadian people, expect no less."

I got my big break as a negotiator because of one very important thing - I knew how to get along with the person sitting on the other side of the table. Now that does not mean that things were always love and kisses - the person on the other side of the table knew where his bread was buttered, and so did I. But my big break happened when just the opposite happened of getting along with the other side.

I was one of a few contract types who was working on the company's largest contract. The contract I really wanted to work on was being handled by one of the groups more senior and experienced administrators. But this man was a bit of a hothead. He was at the customer's facility in a very important negotiation. Things got heated, and then our company's representative blew his cool. Told the customer he was going to break his arm off and then feed it to him. And just like that, I was called into the boss's office and told I was getting that contract. Why? I knew how to get along with people. And thus started my real career.

Why bring this up? Canada. Donald Trump. Mark Carney. We really don't need another war right now, even if it is only a tariff war. Canada is our biggest trading partner. Of any country on this planet, the USA and Canada are the closest alike. Getting along with Canada should be as easy as getting out of bed in the morning. But it is not. Where does the blame lie for not getting the trade deal done? With Donald Trump? With Mark Carney? With both? With neither? 

There are two major lessons I learned as a negotiator. First, a "no deal" is better than a bad deal. That being said, lesson number two was a deadlock in a negotiation was a failure on everybody's part. What happened in the Canada trade negotiation was a deadlock. To be followed on with punitive tariffs. Who really loses? Everybody - especially the consumer who will have to pay more for goods they need. 

Earlier in Trump's second term, he floated the idea of reciprocal tariffs. If another country charged us fifty percent tariffs - we would charge them fifty percent back. If another country charged us zero percent tariffs - we would charge them zero back. Easy peasy and very fair (so I thought). What happened to that plan? Was it that Congress had SCOTUS rule against Trump's tariffs? I don't know - all I know right now is we have a mess with Canada.

We need to get back to the art of the deal, and not have other countries think we are trying to execute the art of the steal. One other rule of negotiations I learned. Never negotiate over the phone. Way too easy to say no. We need Trump and Carney to meet face to face and hammer this thing out. Egos need to be checked at the door, and a reasonable deal needs to be struck. The American people, the Canadian people, expect no less.

 

Do we still have what it takes to build a good aircraft carrier?

"Here is my point to all this blather. We expect the best out of our young sailors. Sometimes it is not an easy life. But if we are to expect the best out of them, it is up to us to give them the best to work with. Having workable toilets when you are deployed to a war zone is not too much to ask."   

If the Navy were smart (and they usually are), they would do an in-depth "lessons learned" on what happened during the 265-day deployment of the USS Lincoln. To take 5,000 young men and women, put them on a large ship (but not that large), and expect them to be close to flawless in their performances on a very important mission, might need a closer look. Why do I say that? We need to examine the good, the bad and the ugly of that recent experience. Maybe there is a point, where no matter how mentally tough some of these young folks are, which is too much. Or maybe not. But in any event, since this was the longest deployment ever for a Nimitz Class carrier, it needs a closer look.

And it is not just the aircraft carriers. Again, to put over 100 young men and women in a tube and have it submerged for weeks or months at a time - there might be a breaking point on that experience also. I know, I know - the folks who qualify to be submariners are as tough as nails. But still - is there a limit to what can be absorbed before stress starts to win the day? I am not trying to borrow trouble by asking this, but if (and that is a big if) there was a problem on the Abe, the Navy needs to address that problem head on. 

Right now, out of our eleven carriers, we have two in dry dock. It is interesting that one which is in dry dock is our newest carrier, the USS Ford. That leaves nine carriers to be ready to be on station should the need arise. But one thing needs to be understood about the current state of our Navy - we are lagging behind China. Why? Not to put blame on Obama and Biden but maintaining a Navy which could do battle on two oceans at once, was not on their radar. Plus, the fact we have lost some of the recipe cards on how to build quality ships rapidly, has left the fleet with some holes in it. Like, many of our Ticonderoga Class cruisers are getting ready to sunset, and we have nothing to replace them with as yet. That is a whole lot of VLS cells that the Navy will be short. 

The USS Kennedy is going through sea trials as fast as humanly possible. What is the rush? The Kennedy, like our submarines and other surface ships - is behind schedule. But even with that, the Kennedy will not be ready for delivery to the Navy until March of next year. There is a lot of excitement about the Kennedy, on how much of an improvement it will be to the carrier it will replace. There was excitement about the USS Ford also, until the toilets quit working. For how much time and money went into the Ford, there was no excuse for that one!

Here is my point to all this blather. We expect the best out of our young sailors. Sometimes it is not an easy life. But if we are to expect the best out of them, it is up to us to give them the best to work with. Having workable toilets when you are deployed to a war zone is not too much to ask.   

Our state fair! Hot dogs, rides, and...gangs

"Some people, like that handsome young man in the picture above, just like to go to the Minnesota State Fair, have a foot long hotdog, and people watch. That is what the majority of us do. However, in the past few years, going to the fair has been marred by violence. Mostly at night, mostly by wild and feral youth."

What has happened to the Minnesota State Fair? I will tell you what has happened. It has become a microcosm of what ails our society. We have spent some considerable time and money to negotiate with some young Somali gangs concerning our rapidly approaching fair. "Please stay away this year. And if you come, please don't hang with other gang members." That was our AG asking those questions. Will this work for a more peaceful fair this year? Odds are it will not. Why not? The current in our country right now is all about mass mayhem, put on by wild and feral youth. The Minnesota State Fair is prime breeding ground for that kind of behavior. 

Not to get too political, but this kind of behavior is a hangover from the lawlessness condoned in the Obama and Biden years. If it feels good - do it, even if it is against law and order. We still have a bevy of prosecuting local attorneys and judges who HATE to impose any kind of punishment on law breakers. "Please do better. Now go home and have some ice cream." So long as that is the kind of punishment we dish out for lawlessness, we will continue to have mayhem in our streets.

Think I am dabbling in histrionics or hyperbole? I am not. What about blocks and blocks of cars who have their windows broken overnight? One man who was interviewed on the news said this was this third time this year he woke up to broken windows in his car. Who is doing this? Who do you think. Hint: It is not Mormon missionaries or Boy Scouts. Wild and feral youth? That is a much better guess.

Some people, like that handsome young man in the picture above, just like to go to the Minnesota State Fair, have a foot long hotdog, and people watch. That is what the majority of us do. However, in the past few years, going to the fair has been marred by violence. Mostly at night, mostly by wild and feral youth. Why do I think this will happen again? Because it happened across the border at Wisconsin's fair. That is why.

How do we turn this ship around? How do we get back to that "Ozzie and Harriet" type of life we had years ago? The Mary Tyler Moore years in Minnesota? Or have been so scarred by the Floyd riots that we are stuck in this new rut. Because if we are, we better get used to living in Dystopia.      

Do we have DUMB, or what?

"Do we have underground bases? Underground cities? Most of us will never know. This might just be urban legend and rumor-mania, or there could be some truth involved in it. Do I have any superior knowledge on this subject? Not a shred. That being said, I am still interested in the stories about these things - true or not."   

Every now and again, the old rumor mill starts to buzz like crazy. Which topic? Oh, there are quite a few. But one of the topics which really catches my glance is DUMB (Deep Underground Military Bases). Now before you hang up the phone, let's take a bit of a longer look at this issue. First off, is it even possible that we do have some military bases underground? The short answer is yes. We have had the technology for years on how to safely and securely construct underground facilities. But the next answer is the most vexing - can we develop these bases without being noticed or heard? Maybe, maybe not. 

The current narrative on our underground bases makes their existence seem actually quite possible. Shortly after the Soviet Union exploded their first atomic bomb, it scared the pants off our military planners. So much so, they started being concerned about how to have our military continue should we ever be attacked by nuclear weapons. We know from our government, they have a continuation of government plan by having POTUS, most of his cabinet and Congress go to an underground secured and safe location in time of national emergency. This is fact. Weather Mountain is fact. Cheyane Mountain is fact. There are some others, but then we lose the factual information and start getting into conjecture and rumor.

If you look at what has been discovered in Gaza, what we know about what is in Iran, burrowing underground in cities and storage areas is common. If these backward areas of the world can do it, why can't we? There have been stories about tunneling machines with plasma cutters on them, which can make miles and miles of tunnels with no debris evident. What about the purpose and location of these bases? If they exist, I am sure the security rating on them is sky high. So much so, some of them might have been around for decades, and decades yet to come.

One year, my wife and I went up to a Minnesota State Park called Soudan. It is a mine deep underground. Currently, it is used for research by the University of Minnesota as well as other agencies. Why bring this up? It was spooky and weird to be that far underground. I suppose if someone was stationed in a DUMB, they would get used to it. But like it said, to us it was nothing but strange and unnerving.

Do we have underground bases? Underground cities? Most of us will never know. This might just be urban legend and rumor-mania, or there could be some truth involved in it. Do I have any superior knowledge on this subject? Not a shred. That being said, I am still interested in the stories about these things - true or not.