It is "D Day" - (again)

"What will happen tonight in Iran? I shudder to think. War is a terrible business, and tonight it might get a whole lot worse. Could this spin out of control so much it would result in a world war? Maybe. Biblical? Also, maybe. Stay tuned and buckle up - the worst of this conflict might be just ahead."

Today is the 6th time that Donald Trump has given Iran the "open the f*****g Strait, or else" message. Odds are it will not happen. And if this is the time, that Trump makes good on his threat, "D Day", which could stand for "Destroy Day", could happen this evening. According to President Trump, he will take out every bridge and ever power plant in Iran. And, according to the baddies who are now in control of Iran, if we do that, Iran will hit us where it hurts. Israel's power plants and United States interests in Saudi and the UAE.

I will agree with President Trump on this issue - the "leaders" in Iran right now are bat poop crazy. They will sacrifice a good part of the infrastructure in Iran in lieu of getting rid of their enriched uranium, missiles, and having legal and normal elections. The Strait of Hormuz is yet another issue. That SHOULD be a thorn in the side for most of the civilized world. But somehow, keeping the Strait open falls on our plate. Why? I have no idea.

This war with Iran reminds me a bit of Israel's war on Gaza (Hamas). Because Hamas would not cooperate or capitulate, each day, every day, the IDF ground more and more of Gaza into dust. Today, Gaza looks like a no-man's land. Nothing like a livable city. And guess what? Hamas is still around. Reduced for sure, but still here. I can see the IRGC acting the same way. They will hide in their bunkers as the United States and Israel lays waste to their country. And for what? Like I said - this people are bat poop crazy.

Having the Strait of Hormuz corked up by Iran should set off a five-alarm fire with the nations who depend on a free and open Strait to get their goods on time. The tepid response that most of the world has had on this issue puzzles and perplexes me. Also, this has not made much news but is still important. It will take many months, maybe years, to repair the damage to oil and gas facilities that Iran has caused with their missiles and drones. Because of that, the price of gas (worldwide) could remain high for quite a while. 

BTW - has there been any kind of uproar over the 30,000 to 45,000 innocent civilians who have been murdered in the streets of Iran by their own government? It has been very silent. Crickets. I don't even know if the Pope mentioned it in his Easter address. Those thousands of innocent Iranians have become like the thousands of innocent Christians murdered and martyred in Nigeria. If nobody talks about it, maybe the awfulness of each travesty will just go away.

What will happen tonight in Iran? I shudder to think. War is a terrible business, and tonight it might get a whole lot worse. Could this spin out of control so much it would result in a world war? Maybe. Biblical? Also, maybe. Stay tuned and buckle up - the worst of this conflict might be just ahead.

 

Our new and true friends going forward

"That is it. The world is changing, and America is growing stronger all the time. As such, we need strong and loyal friends. We have them - Poland in Europe and Japan in the Pacific. We are happy to share the Golden Age of America with loyal friends. Those who are not loyal will not get to take part in our Golden Age - they will only get the tarnish." 

Is NATO dead? Or just of life support? For many in this country right now, we are feeling like a jilted lover. NATO, whose bacon we have saved more than once, has been treating us like a former mother-in-law whom they hate. Why is that? Because Donald Trump has called some of the NATO countries out on their nonsense? Their non-payments or short payments of NATO dues? Or is it the Muslim thing? That out-of-control immigration has led to huge Muslim populations in Europe. Whatever it is, our friends from yesteryear might not be our friends tomorrow. They certainly are not our friends today.

Our best friend right now in Europe, a part of NATO, is Poland. They are strong, they have paid their dues, and they stand ready to kick Russia in the groin whenever needed. They are like the NATO of yesterday. Rough and tough, anything but Namby-Pamby's like much of NATO is today. President Trump and former President Duda forged a strong friendship which is still present today. If push ever came to shove in Europe, and if Poland asked for help, we would come running. Besides all of which, we share four bases in Poland with Polish forces. It is a marriage made in Heaven (so to speak).

What about the rest of NATO? The UK? Canada? France? Germany? Spain? The Nordic countries? As far as common defense is concerned, those good old days are over. Today, for common defense, much of NATO is about as useless as a screen door on a submarine. Either NATO needs to find their big boy pants once again, or it might just be time to part ways. Do we hate those weak sisters of NATO? No - but we don't love them like we used to. Their lack of support in this Iranian war was telling and shameful. That will not be forgotten.

The Western Pacific is a different story. I wish we could have ten more countries just like Japan to have our back. This new Prime Minister of Japan (Sanae Takaishi) is a force to be reckoned with. She has zero fear of either Russia or China and has proudly put her growing and fearsome military in harm's way. This island nation whom we fought so hard almost 90 years ago, is now a staunch ally. We have other close friends in the Pacific arena, but none right now as close as Japan. 

That is it. The world is changing, and America is growing stronger all the time. As such, we need strong and loyal friends. We have them - Poland in Europe and Japan in the Pacific. We are happy to share the Golden Age of America with loyal friends. Those who are not loyal will not get to take part in our Golden Age - they will only get the tarnish. 

Beware of the faux job reports!

"Is there a golden fleece out there, or is it all gloom and doom? I believe those who are cleaver, nimble and ambitious will find that pot of gold. Those who are not, will need to learn how to get by on some kind of GNI (Guaranteed National Income)." 

Last month's job report is out, and the corks are popping all over (with some folks)! But what does these new jobs report really tell us? That we added more jobs than expected, so our unemployment rate ticked down a bit. Or - did it? The U6 unemployment rate (boy, it has been a while since I have addressed the U6!), showed the actual unemployment rate went up to 8%. Why does this matter? Because if you get frustrated with finding a job, and just drop out, nobody counts you for anything. That is, except for the U6 unemployment rate. 8% of the people in this country who could work and are not working - is a big number.

Did you hear about Oracle? Larry Ellison, one of the richest people of the world and owner of Oracle, just axed 30,000 via an email this past week. Right before Easter. Why does this matter? Microsoft also just laid off 6,000 employees. And Alphabet, parent company of Google is in the process of laying off 2,500 employees. These are companies which have always had huge growth potential. And they will keep growing - only with less human employees and more AI infusion.

As we continue through this decade, buckle up. Many jobs are going to become more tenuous and temporary. Jobs which were once believed to be unreplaceable, will be replaced by automation. Sorry - this is the brave new world. This is going to become a much bigger problem as we slide into 2030. Will there be jobs out there? Some, yes - and good paying ones at that. But they will be niche jobs that require a certain type of expertise and training. The kind of jobs we are not educating our young folks for.

Anybody who has either owned a business or did the financials for a business, knows this immutable fact - human employees are expensive and messy. Messy? They need time off for maternity. Time off for military. Time off for being sick. Vacation. They only work between 40 - 50 hours per week. The list goes on and on. Automated jobs on the other hand, don't take lunch breaks. No vacations. No sick leave. No raises needed. Bottom line? To stay competitive in our brave new world, will cut as much expense as possible out of the workforce, while still being more effective and efficient every quarter. That will be the key to success. 

We need to stop preparing and training for yesterday's jobs. We need to break out the crystal ball and really focus on where the human jobs will be tomorrow. Next year. Five years from now. We need to think long term and short term at the same time. Is there a golden fleece out there, or is it all gloom and doom? I believe those who are cleaver, nimble and ambitious will find that pot of gold. Those who are not, will need to learn how to get by on some kind of GNI (Guaranteed National Income). 

 

Could this be - a new forever war?

"If this is all true, what are our options? Call it a day in two weeks and head for home? Call in Marine tunnel rats and Army door kickers to settle in for a prolonged boots on the ground mission? Set up shop with our Navy on station and continue looking for high value targets? More and better bunker busters in the offing?" 

What I am going to put forward is not yet 100% verified. But the signs are pointing towards that it might just be true. In March, Iran released a video of its massive underground Missile City. Somes areas of this multi-cave underground city are decoys. Others are still works in progress. But the Iranians have been working on this underground city for decades. Why? For a time such as this. When they can take a hit and still come out fighting.

The story has it, that Iran still has in its possession, tens of thousands of missiles and drones. All buried in tunnels hundreds of meters below granite mountains. Beyond our best bunker busters? Maybe. If that is the case, what is our remedy? Israel's remedy? Anybody? If they have their infrastructure set up to fight for decades, does this mean the Iranian war could develop into a (gasp!) - forever war? If so, were does that leave us? We have after all, vowed NEVER to get involved in another forever war.

This reminds me of the Gazan tunnels, only on steroids. We had no idea in the labyrinth of tunnels under Gaza where the hostages were being kept. In Iran, the Zagro Mountains were used as cover. Some of the Missile City tunnels are buried deep under those mountains. Like over 400 meters deep. Deeper than our bunker busters can reach.

Some think that Iran has been planning for this war for years - maybe decades. They lured the US and Isreal into a conflict which Iran knew, could not be won by the infidels. They would wear them out - use missiles against their Middle East allies. Maybe sink a carrier. They knew the Americans did not have the stomach for a multi-year war. They could outlast any enemy. They have enough missiles and drones to last just about forever.

If this is all true, what are our options? Call it a day in two weeks and head for home? Call in Marine tunnel rats and Army door kickers to settle in for a prolonged boots on the ground mission? Set up shop with our Navy on station and continue looking for high value targets? More and better bunker busters in the offing? 

The future in Iran has gone from somewhat clear to very cloudy. None of our options look good right now. We might just have lit the match for an all-out Middle East war, involving just about everyone. Our intentions have been honorable, our execution has been next to flawless, but our intel seems to have had a Missile City size hole in it. And the beat goes on.  

Meanwhile, in another reality...

"For a short period of time, gas will be over $4/gal. Bid deal. Fertilizer will be more expensive for a while. But to "de-nuke" Iran, this is all worth it. Trump's numbers are down because of this needed war, but he does not care. Why not? He cares more about America than his numbers. It has been, still is, and always will be America first for Donald Trump. This war is only part of it."   

Go with me just for a while. I am going to pretend we are in another universe, another reality. Here we go!

Donald Trump has just won the election. He is now the 47th POTUS. He won by promising America first, all the time. The world was a mess, thanks to the narcoleptic Joe Biden. But that was then and this now. One of the first calls that Trump received to congratulate him was from Bibi Netanyahu. "Mr. President, we need to address this issue in Iran and do it fast. They are months, maybe weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. I have talked to President Biden until blue in the face, but he thought he could just buy the regime off. That is not working."

Donald Trump listened politely. He had known Bibi for years and liked him. But he promised America first, and he was sticking to it. "Sorry Bibi. No more wars. We are not getting involved in sending more weapons to Ukraine, and we are not getting involved with Iran. Que sera sera Bibi, whatever will be will be. Now have a nice day and say hi to your wife."

Four years passed, and Iran is stronger and more truculent than ever. But Trump stuck to America first, and no more wars. The new president was about to be sworn in. Gavin Newsom from California. The Strait of Hormuz had been closed down for two years now, and Iran was choosing which ships to let through and how much of a fee those ships would pay. No country (except the United States) had enough military muscle to stop Iran from doing this. Finally, France had enough. If the United States was not going to open up the Strait, France would.

France sent in their prized aircraft carrier, the Charles De Gaull. As soon as the De Gaull entered the Red Sea, a bright flash erupted. Just like that, the De Gaull was gone. A nuclear missile from Iran had hit the De Gaull and destroyed her. Almost at the same time, another flash went off over Paris. Then came the warning from Iran. We have more nukes and are not afraid to use them.

President Elect Newsom immediately blamed Donald Trump. "You had four years to stop these guys, and you did nothing! Now we have a rogue nuclear power in the Middle East. It is like having another North Korea. You will go down in history Donald Trump, as the president who allowed this to happen."

Now - back to reality. Donald Trump still does believe in America first, but he is also a realist. He knew that if the Iranian threat was not addressed, bad things would happen in the near future. Maybe to Israel, maybe to Europe, maybe to us. Trump saw Iran as an existential threat to everybody. Only the US had the military muscle and the acumen to take Iran's regime out. The team of the US and Israel was just what was needed.

For a short period of time, gas will be over $4/gal. Bid deal. Fertilizer will be more expensive for a while. But to "de-nuke" Iran, this is all worth it. Trump's numbers are down because of this needed war, but he does not care. Why not? He cares more about America than his numbers. It has been, still is, and always will be America first for Donald Trump. This war is only part of it.   

    

Water woes...

"If you live in Denver, Las Vegas, Tucson or Pheonix, you might need to think about moving - soon. When 'Day Zero' happens, you could not give houses away in cities which have no water. Think about that chip manufacturer who just built a huge plant in Phoenix. Chip manufacturing takes lots of water. What were they thinking? They were not thinking at all."  

News flash! Our world is awash in water. Over 70% of the planet is full of water. Now the bad news. Most of that 70% is non-potable water. Good for saltwater fishes, and that is about it. Our nation has had water since the get-go. But now we have some challenges which have been ignored for years. In particular, we have some of our larger cities which are starting to run out of drinking water. And when that happens, those cities will have to migrate to "Plan B". The only problem is - there is no "Plan B".

Four of the harder hit cities are Las Vegas, Denver, Tucson, and Pheonix. Western cities, who are in the middle of a serious multi-decade drought. Here is the issue - those cities continue to grow, and the available water continues to shrink. Snowpacks, which are the lifeblood of the west, are not what they once were. Lake Powell and Lake Meade are close to "dead pool" status. The once mighty Colorado River has way too many straws coming out of it, and it too is shrinking. 

Most Americans use about 80 gallons of water per day. Oh yes - we use water for just about everything. The last gasp before the taps run dry, is when cities go on a mandatory rationing program. That is where only 8 to 10 gallons per person per day will be allowed. That would be a huge problem for many. However, when "Day Zero" comes, there will be no water to use. Zip. Taps run dry. Mexico City has flirted with that day for years. Pheonix might only be five years away from "Day Zero". And then what?

When I say there is no "Plan B" for these cities, there really is no plan should "Day Zero" come. We have been warned about this situation for years. We have done nothing. For example, the number of desalination plants we have built in the last couple of decades is peanuts. With almost 100,000 miles of shoreline (including Alaska and Hawaii), a few dozen well placed desalination plants could be a lifeline to thirsty cities. But these plants take time to build. Permitting is required. NIMBY needs to be overcome. With Phoenix only being five years from "Day Zero", we really need to start on these plants yesterday.

MIT is developing something known as Atmospheric Water Generation (AWG). It would be taking water out of the air, even in low humidity. That is the good news. The bad news - it is only in the development phase. Years away, maybe many decades away from having it scaled where it could be used for cities. For a current crisis like we have right now, it is too little, too late.

If you live in Denver, Las Vegas, Tucson or Pheonix, you might need to think about moving - soon. When "Day Zero" happens, you could not give houses away in cities which have no water. Think about that chip manufacturer who just built a huge plant in Phoenix. Chip manufacturing takes lots of water. What were they thinking? They were not thinking at all.  

  

 

Can Iran ever be our friend again?

"War is a crappy thing - it really is. But a threat like Iran needed to be taken very seriously. The US and Israel had no choice but to go to battle with them. We know the regime lied to us over and over again over the past few years. How could we tell when they were lying? When their lips moved."   

Lots and lots of bad blood right now between the regime in Iran and US. Even with the regime gone, can we ever have a normal relationship again? Ever? I don't know - but then again, there is Viet Nam. Our relationship with Viet Nam is good right now. Maybe not perfect, but good. And how about out WWII enemies? Germany? Good. Japan? Better than good. I guess time will tell. But before the end of the day (so to speak) in Iran, much more hurt is yet to come.

Here is what I do not understand. What we are doing in going to war with the regime right now, is for the good of the world. Good of Europe. Really for the good of Israel. And yet, I read an article which said American Jews are against this war (figures). What do the American Jews want? A nuclear Iran which could wipe out Israel? Sometimes I wonder where American Jews are really at. They side with the progressives up to the point of throwing Israel under the bus.

Europe is also against this war. They think it is "our war" instead of being peacekeepers for the world. Even though they now have seen Iranian missiles can reach every city in Europe. Do they want to take the chance of getting nuked by some pissed off Mullah five years down the road? What is wrong with Europe today? They have gone soft in the belly (NOT Poland), and many now wonder if Europe will ever have our back again.

This war will come to a conclusion. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Donald Trump will force the issue by taking out every speck of power that Iran has left. That includes Kharg Island. It is really too bad that the Iranian people will have to suffer for a while. But to make the juice worth the squeeze, we need to finish the job. We would have preferred that the Mullahs and their henchmen in the regime just called it quits. But it is what it is. Soon, it will be time for lights out in Iran.

War is a crappy thing - it really is. But a threat like Iran needed to be taken very seriously. The US and Israel had no choice but to go to battle with them. We know the regime lied to us over and over again over the past few years. How could we tell when they were lying? When their lips moved.