"The IRGC is slippery - they have been for many decades. Bottom line? Getting them to comply with promises or agreements might turn into a shell game of sorts."
Those who have ever negotiated for a living or taken a negotiation class, have heard this infamous axiom -the most, and some of the very important movements come right at the very end of a negotiation. I will confess when I first heard that, I thought it was some kind of lore or fiction. That is, I thought that until it happened to me - more than once. Now, it does not happen every time, but in my case, it seemed to happen when it really counted.
I am not only frustrated by the negotiations with Iran, I am also (in a weird kind of way), fascinated by the process. I know what Trump and team are trying to do. Wait until the right deal is scribed on paper and then try and implement it. I also (don't know but believe I know) what the Iran team is doing. It is something they have done before many times and are very good at it. Stall. Stall. And stall again. While they are stalling, work their shadow fleet, reconstitute their drones and missiles, and prepare to act like this war never happened.
The doubter in me thinks that this entire negotiation stage production might just be a "stork dance". Meaning what? Lots of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Even if an agreement is signed, and the Strait is opened up to normal traffic, how long will this fragile peace last? Will the peace also involve Lebanon, or will that dust up be the trip wire which ends the master agreement? There are so many things which could go wrong with an agreement which is signed by the snakes from Iran, that I would be amazed if it lasted a year. Maybe even a month.
What is the good part about this "pause" in the action? We are watching Iran like a hawk right now. It has slowed down or stopped any work to procure and/or enrich uranium. But Iran is a big country with lots of hiding places. Most of which we know about, but maybe not all of them. I hate the idea of having boots on the ground, but I also need to face some hard facts. Even though our intel is very good, having eyes and ears on the ground is even better. The IRGC is slippery - they have been for many decades. Bottom line? Getting them to comply with promises or agreements might turn into a shell game of sorts.
Meanwhile, not to bitch about first world problems, I filled up my truck this weekend. Almost $100. Because of the ill will in negotiations that the Iranians are showing, this might be the case for the rest of the summer. I have said this in a recent post - finish the job Mr. President. The IRGC only understands force, and lying has become an art form to them. They are playing us sir. Sorry to say, but I believe it to be true.
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