Caliphate or Chaos

 

 

 

Caliphate - Derived from "Caliph" - which is a title given to those who succeeded the Prophet Muhammad as real or nominal ruler of the Muslim world, ostensibly with all his powers except that of prophecy

 

 

What has been happening in the Middle East the past couple of years has been mind numbing. In February 2011, after thirty years of relative peace and stability, we saw our old friend and ally Hosni Mubarak forced out of power in Egypt. It was very dicey for a while. Some thought Egypt might erupt into civil war. However, the U.S. trained military stepped in and ensured democratic elections were held. To almost everyone's surprise, the Muslim Brotherhood was selected to be the ruling party. Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was voted in as the new leader. The table was then set for a major feud between the Islamists who backed Morsi and the secularists who after decades, grew accustomed to a more relaxed lifestyle. Less than two years later, Morsi is ousted, and all hell broke lose for a while in Cairo. Stay tuned for the next chapter in this volatile region. 

It is not just Egypt - it is Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Jordon, Iraq, and even into the Persian state of Iran. These are not homogeneous peoples. They come from different histories, different tribes, different religious philosophies. The only thing that temporally unites them is their hated for Israel and their chief backer, the United States.

To make matters far worse right now, we have the rise of ISIS. This is terror group so radical, they have killed more Muslims than Christians, Jews or apostates. Putting this ingredient into the witch's caldron has made a very dangerous area even worse.

Where is the United States in all of this? Right where we should not be - in no man's land. We found out the hard way that when we turned a blind eye to a long time friend like Mubarak, we allowed the genie out of the bottle. Egypt remains one of the biggest prizes in the Middle East. If it falls into chaos, or what some call a Caliphate, watch out. Using U.S. supplied F-16's, Egyptian forces could attack Israel from the west while other Arab states join the attack using other fronts. It could be a repeat of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, only much, much worse.

By the way, what seems to have been lost in the chaos is the dirty little secret buried in Syria and Lebanon. Syria has (although not fully reported by the press), tons of very lethal chemical munitions. It is also thought that Syria and Lebanon might have been the repository for much of Saddam Hussein's chemical stockpile when his fall was imminent. If ISIS gets their hands on this stuff, it could be lights out for many people.

With Iran, don't think for a minute just because there is new leadership the weapons program has stopped. The centrifuges continue to spin as the "red line" quickly approaches. We may be ignoring it, but Israel is not. Crossing the "red line" means war. We will then have to choose between defending our closest ally in the region, or doing nothing. A nuclear Iran should be as concerning to the world as a nuclear North Korea. For some reason, it is not.

The question remains - are we experiencing chaos, the start of a Caliphate, or the birth pangs of Armageddon? Whatever is coming, it is not good. We need to get off the golf course and pay attention. We need an "A" team working this, and working it now. This is not amateur hour or a training ground for newbies. If the Middle East erupts in flames, it will be bad for everyone, everywhere. The clock is ticking.