Monday, February 6, 2023

Viet Nam - the western Pacific's random variable





"I would love to see the same with Viet Nam. They need and want our friendship - and our protection. When war starts in the region, our protection will be very important. Staying neutral might be all but impossible for those who reside in the area."


As I penned the other day, the sides are becoming more clearly defined in the western Pacific. The "big showdown" is expected somewhere between 2024 and 2027, between the United States and China. What happened over the weekend with the "slow boat from China" spy balloon, certainly has not helped matters much. The cornerstone of this coming dispute will of course, involve Taiwan. It will be a battle royal of today's good guys and bad guys, who reside in that western Pacific neighborhood. 

But there is a random variable. A country who only a few decades ago, was a mortal enemy of the United States. But time changes things. Time even heals old wounds. Viet Nam and the United States are now on very good terms. But so is China and View Nam, only not as good as they once were. Seems China's expansionism in the South China Sea is not going over well with Viet Nam. Not enough to break relationships, but certainly enough to strain them.

This is a time of great promise for United States/Viet Nam relations - if we don't screw it up. Right now we have two Coast Guard cutters that are being used in "joint base" operations with Viet Nam. There might be a third cutter coming soon. Why is this important? It seems that China's expansionist plans in the South China Sea know no boundaries. In other words, China has no interest in entertaining Viet Nam's claim to disputed islands. In the eyes of the ChiComs, the South China Sea is no more than a Chinese lake, and none of Viet Nam's business. 

I am very pleased that our relationship with Viet Nam has progressed to the place it is at. We had some very deep and painful scars to overcome. That being said, I would love to see our relationship totally eclipse the China/Viet Nam relationship. So much so, I would love to see a US base or two be established in Viet Nam. Now that - would really be a burr under China's saddle. 

Viet Nam has a lot to offer. I am reminded when I went to Tokyo in 1970. That was only 25 years after the end of World War II. How was I, an American treated by the Japanese? Like a long lost friend. Now the relationship between Japan and the United States could not be stronger. I would love to see the same with Viet Nam. They need and want our friendship - and our protection. When war starts in the region, our protection will be very important. Staying neutral might be all but impossible for those who reside in the area.

One final thought which is a bit off subject. Taiwan. What would be a good response to China's recent incursion in our airspace? Load up Taiwan with as much state of the art defense equipment as possible. Send a message to China, that if they want to take Taiwan, they are going to have to come over us first. 

Why is that important? Just like Ukraine might only be the first stepping stone for Russia in Europe, Taiwan might only be the first stepping stone for China in the western Pacific. We must always remember history - especially the most important lesson. Those who do not learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.  

 

 

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