War now? Peace Soon?

"In any event, we are about two months from having Donald Trump sworn in as our next president. Will that make a difference in the Ukraine war? We hope so. The world hopes so. This is one tender box we would like to have extinguished. We would like to have it extinguished before it sets Europe on fire." 

The war in Ukraine might be approaching a crescendo. A final climax. This past weekend, Putin unleashed hell on earth on the poor people in Ukraine. One of the largest missile and drone attacks of the war. And because Putin has ice water running through his veins, he targeted mostly utilities. Why? Make the people suffer. Destroy their heat just as winter in coming. But there might be something else at play here.

It is no secret that peace in Ukraine is high on President Elect Trump's things to do list. He has already had a phone call with Putin. And Biden is aware of Trump's wanting peace also. That being said, Biden needed to counteract this weekend's carnage in Ukraine. So, Biden did something he previously said he would not do. He authorized Ukraine to use long range missiles to reach inside of Russia. High risk, and maybe higher reward.

Here is what the plan might be. Earlier, Ukraine had launched a surprise attack on Russia and captured some land in the Kursk region. Why? This is Ukraine's big chip in the game. When the time comes for peace talks, Ukraine will need some leverage. Captured land for captured land. Plus, Kursk is where the 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been gathering and training. Hit them where it hurts. 

Speaking of where it hurts, Putin's army is going to finish up this war in Ukraine looking like a prize fighter who just went 100 rounds with ten opponents. It is now estimated that Russia has lost over 700,000 troops to either death or serious injury in this war. That has really put a dent in Putin's war machine. It will take Russia years to build its military back up to be a real threat to NATO. 

Here is the risk to obtain the reward of peace in Ukraine. For Ukraine to use US supplied missiles to attack the Russian mainland, might be the straw which broke Putin's back. In other words, he might react with something more deadly than just drones or conventional missiles. He might be tempted to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Should that happen, the peace dividend would be off the table, and World War III would have started. This is high stakes poker for sure.

In any event, we are about two months from having Donald Trump sworn in as our next president. Will that make a difference in the Ukraine war? We hope so. The world hopes so. This is one tender box we would like to have extinguished. We would like to have it extinguished before it sets Europe on fire.