"Going forward towards 2030, Putin is the wild card. He is unhinged and demented. At least Xi has enough common sense to look at the welfare of his people. Putin does not. It is after all, all about him. Not about the average Russian family, who already may have lost a son in this meatgrinder of a war."
There is an old saying - "So and so would like to move on but still has one foot stuck in the tar." Yesterday, Trump talked to Putin for two hours about a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine. It was a phone call, but sure was not "beautiful". What does Putin want? More than can be offered. The analogy is this - somebody breaks into your house when you are on vacation. That intruder was living there. He has control of your house AND your car. In a negotiation with law enforcement, the intruder agrees to give back your house, but not your car. That is where negotiations are right now. Russia wants to keep Crimea and the Donbas Area of Ukraine. You know - that whole "spoils of war" thing. Putin has one foot stuck in the tar of Ukraine.
I have said this before about this war in Ukraine - Putin will not concede an inch if he believes he is winning. And even though the brave soldiers of Ukraine have fought valiantly, going forward it is strictly a numbers game. In other words, without the help of a third party (or parties), Ukraine cannot win. Russia will prevail and take Ukraine as its own. Why? Russia has more men and equipment than Ukraine does.
And because Russia has thousands of nukes at its disposal, should third parties enter to help Ukraine fend off the Russians, Putin could take the nuclear genie out of the bottle. Then we are in a real-life World War III. What can Trump do? What could he offer Russia to stand down? More sanctions? Putin just blows those off. With the carrot and the stick, neither seems to be working with Russia. Time is on Putin's side, and he is slowly turning Ukraine into dust.
Back to my analogy of the intruder. It galls many (including myself) to offer Putin ANYTHING since his gains in Ukraine are ill-begotten. Putin deserves NOTHING except maybe a trail in the Hauge. And honestly, if Russia did not have nukes, NATO would have driven him out of Ukraine months ago - maybe years ago. But Putin does have nukes, and besides thinking he can win in Ukraine, he also thinks his nukes could win World War III for him. And that is the real scary part.
Going forward towards 2030, Putin is the wild card. He is unhinged and demented. At least Xi has enough common sense to look at the welfare of his people. Putin does not. It is after all, all about him. Not about the average Russian family, who already may have lost a son in this meatgrinder of a war. What would be the ultimate stick for Putin since he has no interest in carrots? I think we all know the answer to that one.
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