"I have no clue to what the correct negotiation strategy will be where Ukraine walks away thinking they got a good deal. Unless, Russia has an epiphany, retreats completely, returns Crimea, and leaves the Donbas area alone. Other than that outcome, I have no clue what the satisfier will be for Ukraine."
"You can win if you cheat" at one time was a cliche used in some business settings. Of course, it was only tongue in cheek. The real saying should continue to be "Cheaters never prosper". That is, unless you are Valdimir Putin. And "All is fair in love and war" rings hollow when it comes to garnering a peace in Ukraine. Why do I say that? No matter the outcome, Ukraine will get screwed, and Russia will walk away with a partial prize.
Some in the world may refer to Russia and Ukraine as the "warring parties", but to Ukraine, Russia has only one name - "occupiers". As much as Ukraine balks at giving up one inch of ill begotten territory to the "occupiers", losing big chunks of land to Russia, might be a fait accompli.
What will Russia need to give up during these upcoming negotiations? To stop the fighting. Stop the killing. Stop the bombing. How about Ukraine? Stop the fighting. Stop the killing. Stop the bombing. AND - maybe give up Crimea. AND maybe give up the Donbas area of Eastern Ukraine. AND maybe some of the minerals contained therein. Sound fair? Certainly not to Ukraine. To them, they are getting screwed with the largest screwdriver in Europe. What can Ukraine gain? Peace - maybe.
Russia is only a shell of what they once were. Many refer to Russia as being "a gas station with nukes". Much truth in that statement! All they really have to sell worldwide right now is their dirty oil, plus they have more nukes than any other nation. That makes them a huge threat. Their military has proven to be a joke. They wanted a three-day war with a neighboring country who had a fraction of Russia's military. One country has a battle harden former KGB Officer and the other country has a comedian turned politician. It was supposed to be a massacre. But we all know how that has turned out. After three years, a standoff, with Russia losing up to a million troops.
I have no clue to what the correct negotiation strategy will be where Ukraine walks away thinking they got a good deal. Unless, Russia has an epiphany, retreats completely, returns Crimea, and leaves the Donbas area alone. Other than that outcome, I have no clue what the satisfier will be for Ukraine. Is Russia in the catbird seat right now. That would be a yes!
Bottom line? Russia is now and has been for a while now - a bully. Take away Russia's nukes and they would be a nobody. Poland would be the real powerhouse in Europe. But Russia has nukes, and the chances of Russia given them up is about zero. And as long as Russia does have nukes, Russia will always be a bully.
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