"Few wars ever fought have been clean and easy. Just ask Putin about Ukraine. This war in Iran is starting to get messy. There are no easy solutions right now. A quick surrender by the regime would have been nice, but now it looks like that is not in the cards. Meanwhile, the pain at the pump continues to get more painful."
After weeks of combat in Iran, we need to face facts. We have degraded their military. Sunk their navy. Killed their leadership. Destroyed their air force. And neutralized their air defense system. With all of that, we probably did not get all the snakes out of the ground. In other words, the regime still stands. Missiles still fly towards Israel and Arab countries. And the most vexing problem of all, the Strait of Hormuz - remains a big problem.
The Saudis and the UAE have come up with a solution to this problem. Keep the ship traffic away from Iran as much as possible. Why? For ship captains, making it through the Strait is tantamount to in the old west, making it in and out of a box canyon. Plus, because the threats are numerous from the sea, under the sea and from air, many captains (and the insurance agents), are opting for a "no go" posture instead. The result? Merchant shipping stacked up like cordwood in the Persian Gulf.
For about $200B, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could build a canal through the desert. One which would bypass the dreaded Strait of Hormuz. On the plus side, this could be an answer to a very old problem. Oil could once again flow, LNG ships could again pass, and the world would not be on pins and needles, worrying about 20% of oil and gas being unavailable.
But there also is a dark side. One ballistic missile coming from Iran, could put this new canal out of business for months or longer. Even the Houthis from Yemen could be party poopers to this new and innovative idea. Waves of drones, coming in over the desert, could bring shipping to a dead stop. What would that mean? This new canal would need to be guarded like it was Fort Knox. It would mean the United States would have a more permanent presence in the Middle East.
One more thing. This new canal (if built) would take some time. Time the world does not have in waiting for improvements in getting oil and gas to needy customers. Already, one of the major LNG facilities has been damaged by the Iranians, and estimates are three to five years to totally repair. Until it is fixed - then what?
Trump is toying with the idea of not waiting for the last remaining snakes in Iran to be eliminated. That could take a long time, wasting expensive munitions. He might go back on this word and send in the Marines and some Army units. Boots on the ground. Why? Fixing this problem by air will only work so good for so long. Our Marines and Army "door kickers" are trained and ready to do some close quarter fighting to fix things. But it could be bloody. Our body count could go much higher in a short period of time. Is that the risk worth taking?
Few wars ever fought have been clean and easy. Just ask Putin about Ukraine. This war in Iran is starting to get messy. There are no easy solutions right now. A quick surrender by the regime would have been nice, but now it looks like that is not in the cards. Meanwhile, the pain at the pump continues to get more painful.
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