The big flinch? Or a smart response?

"I am good with waiting until the 'spike' is over this month. Letting a few more go back to work in April is fine with me. But May is different. That is the month we MUST start coming out of this. Hopefully, the testing and vaccine research will be much further down the road at that time."

Here we are. Day 2 of the week which the President's medical team has warned us about. The dreaded "spike" is coming. Anytime between now and April 25th, some are saying. But now we are starting to hear the same thing coming from different docs on the team. The models were off. They are off. Not by a little, but by a lot. Like, instead of 240,000 dead at the worst of this wave, now they are thinking between 50,000 and 135,000. Some are saying even less. I know as of right now, the dead in the US count up to be about 11,000. Still not good, but a long way from the models.

Two pieces of good news I have heard as of late. That is, besides the worst case numbers probably being too high. First off, the Governor of MN is considering extending the number of days of hunkering down. HOWEVER - he is also considering allowing some of the "non-essential" professions, to return to work. THAT IS GREAT NEWS! The second one is a bit more far fetched, but I love the fact some are talking about it. Sending China a bill for what they have done to our economy. This virus came from their back yard, and might have come about due to nefarious reasons.

Right now, we have lost .000033 of our population to this virus. If we lost the amount of people as first forecast (240,000), the percentage of population lost would have still been a fraction of a percent. In the county I live in, we have had 40 cases out of 350,000 citizens, with zero deaths. Heck the entire state has had about 1,000 sickened to date, with 30 deaths. 115 remain hospitalized. 

What is the purpose of reporting all these stats? First off, I think the American people have been playing this smart. They know this virus is highly contagious, and have modified their lifestyles accordingly. Bravo to us. The second point is one I have been hearing more and more as of late. In fact, it is starting to become a dull roar. We need to open things up. For example, in northern Minnesota, there are counties with either a handful or cases or zero cases. Let these people go back to work. Let my county, with only 40 cases reported, go back to work (to some degree).

So much for the flinch - now for the smart response. Americans hopefully are learning from this episode. Be smart, take nothing for granted. I know I have. The invisible world can sicken or kill us just like the visible world can. When we start going back to work, no matter what the job is, these lessons cannot be forgotten. There are dozens of ways we can make our workplaces safer from the dangers of the invisible world. What am I saying? We can have our cake and eat it too. We can go back to work, and still be safe at the same time. But we need to be smart about it.

I am good with waiting until the "spike" is over this month. Letting a few more go back to work in April is fine with me. But May is different. That is the month we MUST start coming out of this. Hopefully, the testing and vaccine research will be much further down the road at that time.

The country is ready to go back to work. We will go back better, smarter, and healthier. It is time. 

H**l week, and how we got here

"How FEMA can be really the organization was intended to be. How (God forbid), if one of cities gets hit with a dirty bomb, or our nation suffers an NBC attack from either Smallpox or an EMP event - we know what to do."

It seems odd to refer to this week, the Holiest of Holy in the faith most of us share, with a frat term. And because it is Holy Week, I will not correctly use the term - just suggest it. But this is the week that the Surgeon General said would be our "Pearl Harbor", or our "9/11" week. Why? The "spike" is coming this week, and it will be knocking at the door of cities which can ill afford to put up with it. As the President said, "Lots of death this week". We are in a real mess folks. Now is a good time to look back on how we got here.

The story has it that in 2005, then President G. W. Bush just finished reading a book on the Spanish Flu of 1918, and how it killed so many people world wide. Since 2005 was not that long after the sucker punch of 9/11, Bush started to wonder if we could be "sucker punched" again - only this time by a virus. So he established a national stockpile of emergency equipment. If our nation was visited again by an unwanted virus, our cities, our nation, could be ready for it.

Bravo Zulu to President Bush. That lasted throughout this administration and into Obama's. The stockpile was used more than once, and the supplies contained therein were nothing less than life saving. Towards the end of the Obama Administration, the "cupboard" started looking a bit empty. It needed to be refreshed. It was not. That was a huge miss for Obama.

Then comes President Trump. The "cupboard" is still lacking the supplies it needed to be fully stocked. Whatever the reason, be it a hostile Congress, the endless impeachment BS, or other national priorities, our national "cupboard" remained short of the requisite supplies. Then came the Wuhan virus (now known as COVID - 19), and the rest is history. We are rolling into h**l week, with cities fighting with other cities for scarce PPE, vents, and medication.

When this is long over, when we have buried our dead, and treated our sick as best we could, will we have learned something? We better have, as this "shock" to our system could have been so much worse. What we have learned from Katrina, Super Storm Sandy, and COVID - 19 is simply this - the government can only do so much. And some time that "so much", ain't much. We need to rely on me, myself and I to protect our families as best we can. But when it comes to mass medical help, we do need a functional government which works, and does not resemble the Keystone Cops in an emergency.

My last official act in the Navy was constructing a lessons learned report for NSA about the First Gulf War (Desert Storm). As good as that war went for us, there was still plenty which never made the press, which could have gone better (from an intel perspective). I had lots to write about. I really hope someone high up in the food chain does a lessons learned report about this cluster called COVID - 19. How we can get a whole lot better, in a very short period of time.

How FEMA can be really the organization was intended to be. How (God forbid), if one of cities gets hit with a dirty bomb, or our nation suffers an NBC attack from either Smallpox or an EMP event - we know what to do. We can minimize the death count, rather than running around with our hair on fire like we are now. No - we have a long way to go. Like miles.

I hate the fact we are having this spike. I really hate the fact it is happening over Holy Week. Yesterday was the strangest Palm Sunday I experienced since being on active duty. We watched Pastor Jeffers on Fox Nation. That was our church service. It was good, and transforming, but it was not like being in church.

As we head towards Easter, we can only hope and PRAY this "spike" passes as quickly and painlessly as possible.      

On the beach? Redux?

"This was the day, this Palm Sunday, which was to become the start of Holy Week. The week of the passion, which would change everything, for everyone, for ever more."

I don't know if I ever mentioned this before. One of my favorite novels is a very good one from yesteryear. I must have read it a half dozen times (rare for me). It was penned by an English author, and was about a post apocalyptic world. The novel is On the Beach. A classic in the eyes of many. The author is Nevil Shute. Although a different scenario than what we are going through right now, with a much different outcome, I cannot help thinking about some of the similarities.

In the novel (for those who have not read it), the northern hemisphere has been decimated by a nuclear war. Everything north of the border was poisoned, and everything living was either dead or dying. For those south of the equator, life was just fine for now. People were alive, going through with their daily routines. The only fly in the ointment, was this giant radioactive cloud of poison, slowly heading south. Soon it would cover the entire globe, and nothing would survive. 

I will not go into any more of the details. Let me just say, an American sub with a Australian officer aboard, survived the holocaust up north, are trying to get to Melbourne, Australia before the cloud hits. The Australian officer wanted to be with his wife and daughter during those final days. But that is where most similarities end with what we are going through. The one similarity which remains however is this - the approaching cloud. Not a radioactive cloud in our case, but COVID - 19 infested "cloud".

According to the experts, this is the week when the dreaded "spike" begins. The hot spots we have are now hotter, and new ones have sprung up overnight. Since immunity to this new virus is in short supply, the medical professionals are begging us to adhere to the current warnings. We need to take them very seriously. Deadly serious. Plus - there is a new warning out as of today. And this one really got my attention. Stay out of grocery stores. Have your food delivered, or have someone younger buy them for you. Even with precautions, we need to stay out of grocery stores.

It is ironic that this warning should come on Palm Sunday. The day in history where people had hope they would be saved by this man riding into town on a donkey. This was the day which was to become the start of Holy Week. The week of the passion, which would change everything, for everyone, for ever more.

For those in the faith, this is a good time to use it. For those who might have strayed from their faith, this would be a good time to reclaim it. For those who were never in the faith, this would be an excellent time to discover it. It is never too late. 

God is good, all the time. He is always in control. He is in control right now. He knew this was coming, He knows how this will play out, and He knows how it will end. We need to trust in Him. And we need to bathe everything in prayer. We need to pray for our country, our world, our fellow citizens, our doctors and nurses on the front line, our first responders, and our families. We will get through this. With the help of God, and His almighty grace, we will endure.   

A changeling? Or not?

"I believe our patience will last throughout April, although it will not be an easy ride. But May? That is a horse of a different color. If May looks like April, fraught with uncertainty, I think all bets are off. Many Americans will roll the dice on the COVID virus, and start living somewhat normal once again."

Question - why do we keep getting the flu shot every year (for the common flu), and a percentage of us still get the flu? For example, I get one every year, and this year I had not only the flu once in the fall, but also AGAIN in February - which morphed into pneumonia. The only good news, is when I was being treated for my pneumonia in Florida in February, the doc told me if I had NOT received the flu shot as well as both my pneumonia shots, this bout would have landed me in the hospital.

But I digress. The question on the table is why, when we get the flu shot, do some of us still get the flu? As a pharmacist friend explained to me a few years ago, every year the flu shot is a crap shoot. Why? It mutates. It is a changeling. The drug makers (BIG PHARMA to many), try and guess what this year's vaccine cocktail will be. Sometimes they are close, sometimes a mile off. The bottom line is this - the common flu still kills tens of thousands of Americans each and every year.

Right now, everyone is "eyes open", waiting for the big and expected "spike" to hit this month. And after the spike passes, then what? Can we go back to normal? Will the COVID - 19 killer be vanquished? According to the experts, "maybe" on the going back to normal question, and "no" on the second question - COVID -19 will still be with us.

What we are going through right now is only the first wave. Will we be better prepared when the second wave comes? The third wave? And so on? Maybe. Depends if COVID - 19 is like the common flu and mutates. If it too becomes a changeling every year, the future indeed is hard to tell. 

The questions which are burning in most American's minds right now, are the same ones we have had every day since this all started. When will this be over? When can we get back to normal? Can we go to a baseball game this summer? What about football this fall? Will I have a job to go back to? Is my 401k account tanked forever? Can I stay in my house? 

This virus has done much worse so far than kill 7,000 of our citizens. It has killed the hopes and dreams of many of us. Just like that in this young year of 2020, we have gone from hopeful, to many of us being hopeless - just like that. This microscopic virus is doing all it can to kill or wound the American dream. The question which we need to ask as a country is this - will we let it? Or can we find a way to live with this thing, even if it mutates every year?

I think we can all give ourselves a high five for the job we are doing in Minnesota on following these new rules. If nothing else, the majority of Minnesotans are good rule followers. Social distancing, washing your hands until they bleed, not touching one's face, no gatherings, and staying indoors. I have been pretty good on all of those, although I have strayed a couple times (safely) in leaving home for brief errands. HOWEVER - I can do all these recommended things for a while, but not for a long period of time. THEY ARE DRIVING ME CRAZY!

I believe our patience will last throughout April, although it will not be an easy ride. But May? That is a horse of a different color. If May looks like April, fraught with uncertainty, I think all bets are off. Many Americans will roll the dice on the COVID virus, and start living somewhat normal once again. Especially in Minnesota, where summer is so short, it is marked in days, not in weeks or months.   

Coming out the other side...

"The hopes, the prayers, of many of us, is a vaccine. One which will end this thing. Kill it dead. Allow our lives to go back to what they were in 2019 and before. That is the other side I am looking for. That is the other side that I think the rest of us are looking for also. What does the other side of midnight look like? We will find out together."  

I will say one thing about being sequestered. Lots and lots of time to think. Many of the thoughts I have been having are not good thoughts, as worry has invaded my thinking process. Worry about my family's health, worry about the economy, worry about the health and well being of our medical professionals as well as our first responders. Mostly however, I think about what is on the other side of this. What life, what our world, will be like. What it will look like.

Seems like everyday, another part of our normalcy for the type of summer we are used to - vanishes. Like yesterday, we found out that all the city beaches and pools will be closed. We have already found out the locals up north don't want the cabin people up "in their neck of the woods". Why? It is for the most part, untouched by this virus. Having all these party people from the metro invading their towns and lakes, could change all of that in a heartbeat. 

How about going out to eat? Sitting with friends, having a drink, sharing a meal, and just catching up on things. Miss that? I sure do. Just seems like yesterday that my wife and I had lunch with our good friends, Cal and Ellen. And just like that, Ellen passed away when we were down in Florida. The restaurant we ate at, is now closed for dining. Little did we know while having that most enjoyable lunch with our friends, it would be the last one we would have with Ellen. Maybe the last at that restaurant.

When we do come out on the other side, there are some lessons to be learned, and some realities to be endured. The lessons are simple up to this point. Even though we can trip along life's road in a merry and carefree manner, things in our country can turn on a dime. Many, many folks were not prepared for it. They were not prepared to walk into a store and see empty shelves. They were not prepared for social distancing. They were not prepared for constant ultra-cleaning (like 20 sec hand washing). And they were not prepared for this modified "shelter in place". Hopefully, once this is over, most of us will be better prepared and better "preppers".

Here is the grim reality. Not all of us will make it through to the other side. Especially if you live on the east coast. Or parts of Michigan. Or New Orleans. Or even California. If the statistics hold, up to .66% of us will not survive this. I know - that is less than one percent of our population. But that is still losing Americans in the six figure range. Those kind of losses make our 9/11 losses look like a blip on the radar.

The second reality is this - if we don't come up with a kick ass vaccine (and soon), this thing will be with us to some degree, even after the "spike" is over. Some will have immunity to it once this spike is over, some might not. The docs just don't know at this time. And so long as this thing is still with us, even to a lesser degree, we can't return to total normal.

The hopes, the prayers, of many of us, is a vaccine. One which will end this thing. Kill it dead. Allow our lives to go back to what they were in 2019 and before. That is the other side I am looking for. That is the other side that I think the rest of us are looking for also. What does the other side of midnight look like? We will find out together.  

At the end of the storm...

"I am of the ilk that believe tough times make tough people even tougher. Not only tougher, but also smarter. And better. We will get through this, even after losing April. How do I know this? Because Americans are not used to failure. We always figure out how to make it work." 

Most of us can remember this song well, as it it was a classic in the day.

When you walk, through a storm,

Hold your head up high

And don't be afraid of the dark.

At the end of the storm

There's a golden light sky,

And the sweet, silver sound of a lark.

The President, as well as his medical team, were very clear the past couple of days. We are now knee deep in the storm. Yesterday, 1,000 Americans succumbed to this virus. Today will probably be worse, as we inch closer and closer to the "spike". In addition, the March jobs report is due out shortly. And it is expected to be brutal. In early May, when the April jobs report comes out, it will be even worse. Like - maybe 30% unemployment.

By now, most of us are getting the general drift on what exactly has happened. How this virus just kind of "popped up" out of nowhere. Or, maybe it did not just "pop up". Like, maybe this was something nefarious perpetrated by the ChiComs. Bats and "wet lung" experiments in Wuhan. But that issue if for another day.

First things first. We need to beat this thing, heal our people, and then heal our economy. Then will be the time to gather our evidence and confront the ChiComs. Every American which has died, the blood of each of them, lay at the door step of China.

I am of the ilk that believe tough times make tough people even tougher. Not only tougher, but also smarter. And better. We will get through this, even after losing April. How do I know this? Because Americans are not used to failure. We always figure out how to make it work. We will endure this "spike", bury our dead, and then in May, start to heal our economy. By June, there is a strong national desire to return to normal. Although our new normal, will be somewhat different than our past normal. Like I said, we will come out of this stronger, smarter and better.

But while we are in the storm, we need to remember one very point fact. It is a fact that most Americans have believed since our get-go. We are our brothers (and sister's) keepers. We will do what needs to be done to get as many of us through this thing, whole. Not sick, not bankrupt, but whole. And if Iran tries to take advantage of our situation right now, may God have mercy on their souls. And China - this conversation is not yet over with you.

When I had to briefly run into a store yesterday for a loaf of bread, I was amazed on how the stores are recovering. They are not totally back to normal, but getting much better. There are rumors abounding that some of our docs are close to a silver bullet. A cure. That might be the first glimmer of daylight at the end of the storm. Maybe, just maybe. With hope, prayers and hard work, just maybe. 

  

Bring us together - again?

"The only news we have heard about April so far as been from the President's Medical Task Force. They said the next two weeks are going to be grim. Horrible. It will be the long dreaded "spike". It will be a cut across the country, but a dagger in the heart of New York." 

I don't know about anyone else, but I am getting very tired of this social distancing. Why? Like most of us, I am a relational human being. I like people. I like talking to people. Even though the President wants to make this taboo, I still like shaking hands with some people. And - I do like to hug on occasion. However, with social distancing, I need to treat most others like they have leprosy. And many others treat me like I have leprosy. I hate it.

Right now, for those of us who are following government guidelines, we are stuck in silos. Telephones, email, social media, Zoom - anything but face to face. That is - unless you are at least six feet from others. Pretty hard to keep a safe distance at a crowded store. Or on a bus. Or on a train. Or on a plane.

Now that we have entered the non-month of April, we are ready for more of the nothingness. The only news we have heard about April so far as been from the President's Medical Task Force. They said the next two weeks are going to be grim. Horrible. It will be the long dreaded "spike". It will be a cut across the country, but a dagger in the heart of New York. Why New York? My opinion? Way too many people living in way too little real estate to practice proper social distancing. By the time most got the message, the die had been cast. 

Speaking of New York, the often photographed Governor of New York actually said something I totally agree with. He said ever since day one, New York had been playing defense with this virus. Catch up. This is why COVID - 19 is causing havoc in NYC. Until New York can get on top of this thing and start playing offense, New York is in for some tough times. 

The other day, someone said, "When can we go back to normal. Getting together as friends, sitting by each other, going out to eat together." That is a great question. When can we be brought back together? Even though it was in January, it just seems like yesterday that we had a gathering at our house with three other couples. We sat close to each other to chat, we sat close to each other to eat, we all hugged and shook hands when it was time to leave. Now that time seems like another lifetime ago. 

Getting back to normal is getting back to our collective normal. First we need to finish this fight. "Get on top of this thing", as Governor Cuomo stated. Then hopefully, at some point this year, our social distancing can go back to something more like it was before COVID - 19. And I do mean - hopefully.