Is this the October surprise - redux?

"Tonight, in the midst of all this mayhem, is the Veep debate. I may or may not watch it. Part of the reason is I don't think I can stomach watching another Walz debate. Don't trust the man. He is at variance with the truth. But tomorrow is another day. Could it get any more squirrely than today? Maybe. Stay tuned. This is not over as yet."    

Okay - I will confess. I did my morning article a bit too early. I thought (as naive as I am) that there were only two Earth shaking stories this morning. I was wrong. We now have a trifecta. The Longshoreman's strike, the mega storm known as Helene, and now the war on Israel in the Middle East. Was the war thing on my bingo card today? No, but it should have been.

Ready for this? The 180 ballistic missiles which came raining down on Israel today, was a game changer. As the saying goes, the Rubicon had been crossed. There is now no going back. Even though the "lead from behind" brigade, was telling Israel to take a chill pill for weeks now, Israel was ready for this escalation. Now the Middle East landscape will never look the same. Israel has vowed, no more missiles from Hamas, no more missiles from Hezbollah, and now more ballistic missiles from Iran. 

Poor old Uncle Joe. All he wants is for his Veep to win the election, and then he can get all tucked in Cozy Cares Care Center. But hold on. Joe's Veep is constantly on the campaign trail; the Longshoremen are on strike; and one of our "storms of the century" has caused all kinds of havoc and mayhem in our southland. All of a sudden, Joe needs to be President again. And he has to act sharp. 

If this is the October surprise, it is a whopper. A three-part pile of goo. A mega-storm, a mega-strike, and now maybe the start to WW III. For a normal president, this would be a handful. But for drifty Joe? This is way beyond a bridge too far. What will this do to the election? Great question! We all know what Covid did to the last election. The ramifications of this trifecta might be a lot worse than Covid. 

Will the US get pulled into this Israel-Iran conflict? We already have. CENTCOM has already used some of our assets in today's attack. As good as Israel's defenses are, help from a few of our SM-3 missiles being fired by our Burke class destroyers, helped stem the tide. But if the attacks get worse, more of our state-of-the-art assets could come into play.

Tonight, in the midst of all this mayhem, is the Veep debate. I may or may not watch it. Part of the reason is I don't think I can stomach watching another Walz debate. Don't trust the man. He is at variance with the truth. But tomorrow is another day. Could it get any more squirrely than today? Maybe. Stay tuned. This is not over as yet.    

Is this the October surprise?

"During the best of times, and far away from any election - this storm and this strike could be major issues. But right now? It is a bad surprise. Maybe even a bad October surprise. Stay tuned on this one. This story is far from over."  

Oh boy. Here we go again. This time it is the Longshoremen's strike, and it is a blow to the nation's solar plexus. And by the way - it is October 1st. Could this be the October surprise that seems to happen in every election? I don't know for sure, but right now, Biden and Harris are in a pickle over it. Oh - and so is the country which depends on open ports for smooth acting supply chains.

Here are some mitigating facts that I have heard on the news concerning this strike:

Item One - Longshoremen are the highest paid union in the country. Wages range from $88K/year to $300K/year (with overtime). Even with those astronomical wages, the union is asking for a 77% increase in pay. That would allow high end crane operators to make about a half million dollars a year (with overtime).

Item Two - Automation. The Longshoremen want none of it. One port has an automatic gate. That one gate has become the hill to die on for the union. They hate it and want no more like it.  The problem is to stay competitive and efficient; ports will need to automate much more than a gate. This could be a stickier issue than the wage issue is.

Item Three - Federal cooling off period. No thanks said the President. "I believe in the power of collective bargaining". So, Biden will not get involved. The problem is, once the ports shut down, soon many other things shut down as well (like, remember Covid?). Biden it seems, does not want to be bothered with this strike. Cuts into beach time up in Delaware.

Item Four - Have we forgotten about the aftermath of Hurrican Helene? Hello? We have fellow citizens who cannot even get a bottle of water right now. Plus, the S+R teams are still finding bodies. Is this the best time to have a nation crippling strike? This is not the time to be selfish.

Item Five - This is a storm issue, not a strike issue. Some of the mail in ballots as well as polling centers in the areas of the greatest storm damage might impact the election. What does all this mean? I have no idea, but it is probably not good, not good at all.

The news cycle for the rest of the month could be void of election politics and focusing on the dual problems of Helene aftermath and cleanup as well as the Longshoremen strike. During the best of times, and far away from any election - this storm and this strike could be major issues. But right now? It is a bad surprise. Maybe even a bad October surprise. Stay tuned on this one. This story is far from over.