Playing not to lose

"And South Korea - you are on your own. We will give you and Japan weapons which will give you parity with the North. But for us - we are done. Not just a little done - we should be done forever."

Have you noticed that every war (conflict) we have been involved in since our victory in World War II, has not resulted in a victory? We either play to a draw, or not to lose. Even the stellar victory we had in 1991 in the first Gulf War. We kicked butt and took names. We could have gone right into Baghdad and effected regime change right then and there. Could have saved the Iraqi people a whole bunch of suffering. But nope - after we kicked Iraqi forces out of Kuwait, we took our boot off Saddam's neck. Big mistake.

But the grand daddy of them all, the place where we have spent tons of bucks and sent thousands of troops year after year, - is South Korea. And for what? The armistice was signed in 1953, for crying in the beer. And we are still over there. With over 25,000 troops and spending about $750M a year (after South Korea kicks in the other half). Using my "bunny math", I am guessing we have spent north of $30B since hostilities ended. That number is much, much higher in Afghanistan, and we have only been there since 2001.

I guess as a citizen, as a retired vet, I can ask this question. What is the end game? Is it to still play to a tie? To try and not lose? Do we have a path to victory? I know, I know. The citizens don't want to hear what that is. Why? Because it is ugly.

The United States remains the world's greatest super power. We have "toys" in our toy chest which would rattle the soul of the fiercest hawk. Could we use them? Oh, yes. The collateral damage? Next subject please. If we were like the Russians, we would not give two toots and a holler about "collateral" damage. But we are not them. We are us. And we don't play that way.

So, here is the truth. Why are we sending another 3,000 troops into Afghanistan? Is it to win the day? Allow that country to be free and experience a democratic way of life? Or is it to continue to "play for the tie", and not to lose. Just asking.

As far as South Korea is concerned, I would tell them this much. Your capitol, being a stone's throw from the 38th, is hampering our defense of you. The year is 2017 - we are ending this right now. We will either end the threat along the DMZ (done with great harm to Seoul), or we are leaving and you can figure it out. After almost 70 years, we are done.

Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan - get ready for bad news. We are not playing "peace keepers" or "tie breakers", or "nation builders" anymore - we are just going for the "V". And South Korea - you are on your own. We will give you and Japan weapons which will give you parity with the North. But as for us - we are done. Not just a little done - we should be done forever. Good luck and good hunting.

The new nature of banking

"A financial expert I went to see had some simple and maybe sage advice. If you have some money right now, go buy something you want. Or spend it on an experience like travel. Why? The value of money is slipping away. Soon, it might not be worth much at all."

This is a great time to be alive if you are looking to buy a house. Or to refinance a house. Or to buy a car. Or even a line of credit, using your house as leverage. The interest rates continue to be almost historically low. So low, many investors are calling capital these days, "free money". And for the most part, it nearly is.

First I will talk about the "ying" - how cheap it is to borrow money. Because the Fed has let our prime rate fall so low to keep the economy from crashing, the effects that even John Q. Public feels are profound. How so? About four years ago, my wife and I replaced both our autos. For the first (and probably only) time in our lives, we bought two cars at once. However, with both a generous trade in on our former cars as well as a 1.6% interest on the new cars, the sticker shock was not shocking at all. If the purpose of having just about free interest was to stimulate car shopping, it sure worked for us.

For houses, I am seeing adds all the time now for rock bottom interest rates. When we built this house 34 years ago, interest rates were so high, we needed to get an ARM (variable rate loan) just to qualify. Our ARM was 10%, with a ceiling of 16% and a floor of 4%. I hated it. I told my wife if interest rates ever returned to normal where I could get an 8% fixed, I was going to jump at it. I knew that we would never see historically low rates like our parents had on their houses - 4 to 5 percent. Boy was I wrong!

Today, you can get either an upfront mortgage or a refinance loan for somewhere in the mid to upper 3 percent range. Wow! That puts a whole lot of houses which at one time would have been considered affordable, in the affordable range.

Now the "yang". If you have any money in the bank, all it is good for is keeping your money safe. It surely is not good for making much interest. Most savings accounts, including a CD is good for maybe 2%, with a whole bunch of conditions. I remember well when I first started working at Control Data one of the older men I worked with was ebullient one day. He was going to take some money out of his savings, pool it with his brothers and a cousin, and then buy a 18 month, $100,000 CD. It was going to pay 10% per year, or 15% for the 18 month term. He, his brothers and his cousin, were going to walk away in 18 months $15,000 richer.

I think back with some bemusement on that old adage from a Twin Cities bank, "Tuck a buck a day away". Okay - for what? Money is the bank is no good other than a holding spot. Money in the market can be very good right now, or this house of cards could come crashing down - big time. Bitcoin? Maybe, or maybe not. Metals? Many financial experts think they might be okay. 

I would like to hand out some free investment advice, but I am as confused as the next person. A financial expert I went to see had some simple and maybe sage advice. If you have some money right now, go buy something you want. Or spend it on an experience like travel. Why? The value of money is slipping away. Soon, it might not be worth much at all.

Faster than a speck on a speck on a speck

"Myself, I would like to believe that we were all put here for a reason - to matter."

Here it is, a drop dead perfect Sunday on a early fall afternoon. Other than the Vikings stinking up the field in Pittsburgh, all is well. Here we are, situated nicely in our town, situated in our state, which lies within the greatest country the world has ever known. And we live on a planet which is perfectly suited for us. For those in the faith, we believe this planet was created by God this way for use to dwell on. For those outside the faith, the following is for you.

Every morning when you wake up, stretch your legs, get out of bed to make coffee, you are the center of the universe. Your eyes, your ears, your sense of smell, your tactile senses are what keep you connected with your universe. Some mornings, after you get up from a good night's sleep, you feel very good. In fact, you might as well be the master of your universe. Now if it is okay, let me burst that bubble just a bit.

You, I, and everyone we know, are really nothing more than a speck on a speck on a speck. Huh? What does that mean? We live on Planet Earth, a beautiful rocky planet situated a perfect distance from a star which is the right size and the right age. On our planet, we are spinning around, one revolution every 24 hours. Even though we don't feel it, this spin causes us to move at 1,000 mph every day we make that revolution.

In addition, our perfect Planet Earth travels around the sun once every year. It is that rotation, along with our 23.5 degree tilt, which gives us our seasons. On that trip around our sun, we are all traveling at 67,000 mph. Wow! Now that is moving! Wait a second! Not so fast. Our solar system, is also moving within the Milky Way galaxy. How fast? About 500,000 mph to make one revolution around the galaxy. 

Okay - Is not the universe expanding also? If so, how fast are we moving with expansion? Put your seat belt on bucko - this is a fast one. Our galaxy is traveling through the universe (through expansion) at 1.3 million miles per hour! Whoa! 

As we sit on Planet Earth, we are smaller than a speck. Our Earth, which is part of our solar system, is smaller than a speck in the Milky Way galaxy. Our Milky Way galaxy is smaller than a speck in the universe. So no matter how important we might feel, we are just a speck on a speck on a speck. And by the way, us specks are going a zillion miles an hour in all directions!

However, if you are in the faith, you know that your speck, my speck, everyone's speck, all matters. We all matter a whole lot more than just being  "specks". Myself, I would like to believe that we were all put here for a reason, for a purpose - to matter.

That way being a speck on a speck on a speck is not insignificant - it is kind of cool. It is cool knowing that in the scope of the universe, we may all be infinitesimally small - but in the eyes of the Creator of the universe, we are not small at all.

London bridges falling down...

"In real life, terrorists would love to take down a London Bridge. Why? The image. Just like taking down the twin towers. Stay vigilant folks. The bad guys are still out there."

Another terror attack in London. The main question which needs to be asked is where the next one occur. Paris? Brussels? Madrid? Munich? The fact that there is going to be another attack goes without saying. Why. Future behavior is usually no different than past behavior. However, I have a deeper question to ask. 

Here is my deeper question - why? What is their purpose? What is their end game? Bring Europe to its knees so that it will reject western ways and adopt Islam? Kill all who follow the Cross? Extract revenge for many in Europe being allied with the United States? ISIS never tells us the reason for what they do. All they do is claim responsibility.

The Muslim Mayor of London has been interestingly mum on a response to these London terror attacks. Because these attacks have been perpetrated by Muslim terrorists, I would think his voice of condemnation would have been the loudest. Nope. In fact, he referred to the latest terror attack in London as an "incident".  Please Mayor Kahn, give us a break!

I have said this ever since 9/11. Until a country has control of its borders, until there is an iron clad method of knowing "who is who" within the country, the chance of bad apples getting "inside the tent" and  doing dastardly things, are very good. How bad is it in Europe right now? Bad, bad. I think there are numerous "sleeper cells" over there, just waiting for their time. 

Having a terror problem is kind of like being addicted to something. First you need to admit there is a problem. Any substance abuse counselor will tell you that until you face your problem, you will not get better. Same is true to terror. A country must admit it has a terror problem. How do I know? We went through that for eight years with Barack Obama refusing to call Islamic Terrorists what they are.

London bridge is falling down, falling down, falling down. London bridge is falling down, my fair lady. So goes the nursery rhyme. In real life, terrorists would love to take down a London Bridge. Why? The image. Just like taking down the twin towers. Stay vigilant folks. The bad guys are still out there.

New energy - a return to Wardenclyffe?

"The questions I have for the scientists are quite simple. Was Tesla onto something viable, or was he just "chasing smoke and mirrors". And second, is it worth the investment to rebuild Wardenclyffe and pick up where Tesla left off?" 

I will admit it. I am a sucker for science. I am also a sucker for technology. There is so much new right now, so much just primed to jump off the drawing board and make the transition market products. What fascinates me more than anything else right now, is new energy. The holy grail. The golden fleece of the new era. In the very near future (I believe), we are going to crack the code on clean, cheap, abundant energy. 

One of the smartest men in our history was Nicolas Tesla. Even though Elon Musk has named a car company after him, Tesla gets nowhere near the credit he should for some of his very innovative thinking. But the one thing he really wanted to hang his hat on, never happened. That would be wireless energy. 

He was so sure he was right, he convinced some financial backers to help build a wireless transmission tower in Shoreham, New York. It was called the Wardenclyffe Tower (although many referred to it as the Tesla Tower). Tesla was fascinated with Marconi's radio wave propagation theory. He wanted to prove Marconi correct and then up the game. He could do so by being able to transmit messages, faxes, and even telephone calls across the Atlantic, all the way to London. Thus, he needed the Wardenclyffe Tower built to do so.

Once he was able to prove Marconi right, his next step in using his tower was to transmit electricity without the aide of wires. He thought the Earth was a natural conductor, and using the Earth as well as the atmosphere, electricity could be transmitted all over the world - without any wires.

That was around the turn of the 20th century. If he had been successful, our energy problems today, our global warming debate today, would be extinct. However, his biggest financial supporter, J. P. Morgan did not feel same love Tesla did. Morgan pulled the plug (so to speak) on the project, and all work stopped.

The questions I have for the scientists are quite simple. Was Tesla onto something viable, or was he just "chasing smoke and mirrors". And second, is it worth the investment to rebuild Wardenclyffe and pick up where Tesla left off? I think the answer to those questions are well worth spending some R+D dollars either by the government, private industry, or both. 

One more thing for all my investor friends who deal with J.P. Morgan. Remind Mr. Dimon that his company, by being cheap, might have cost this world well over a hundred years of clean and free energy. How is that for an investment Jamie? 

A man for all (and any?) seasons...

"Mr. President - there are many out here who still believe in you. However, there are others who are not saying, 'I told you so.'  It is time for a win sir. A win which is good for the country and a win your base can believe in. Good solid tax relief is an excellent place to start."

We have a very good friend whom I will call Mary. We have known her for years. She has not had an easy life, some tough health problems. But you would never know that from talking to her. Why? Day in, day out, Mary never changes. You never have to worry about "which Mary" you will run into when you greet her. Always nice, always the same.

Let's contrast Mary with our chameleon President. The opposite of our friend Mary, the question often becomes, "which Donald Trump am I dealing with today?" I know, I know. There is a big difference between being a candidate in a very crowded field, and the person sitting in the Oval Office. But sometimes Donald Trump does some things which leave his loyal followers scratching their heads.

Take for example our once in a lifetime opportunity to fix our broken tax system. This had gone from "bedrock principles", to trying to shoot a moving target (or targets). This, "let's simplify our tax system so much so we could do our taxes on a postcard", seems to have become lost somewhere in the Potomac. And, "we must have a corporate rate no higher than 15%", seems to have become a variable rather than an absolute. Plus, "only the rich" will pay more? Now the definition of "rich" has shrunk down into the middle class.

It is not just the tax fix, it is also "the Wall". All of a sudden this impenetrable "Wall" the Mexicans were going to pay for, is starting to look more like a screen door. In fact, some seem to think it has become a bargaining chip to be used in negotiations with the Democrats. To the untrained observer (like me), it is starting to look like we are on the cusp of granting amnesty to 800,000 "Dreamers" - and also giving up on the wall. What did Mr. "Art of the deal" get in return? That is besides some very temporary good will from Chuck and Nancy? Good question. 

I know part of what he was been doing is behavior modification for the Republican leadership. That is very clear to me. The President is still smarting from this boner called "Repeal and replace", which turned into a big, fat nothing burger. That being said, right now it looks like Trump is playing every position on the field for both teams. Hello? Grounded in bedrock? Where are you?

One more thing. He as much told the Norks they were going to see "Fire and fury like the world has never seen" if they launched another missile. Last night, they launched another over Japan. I hope the President is not turning into another Obama with vanishing red lines. 

Mr. President - there are many out here who still believe in you. However, there are others who are not saying, "I told you so."  It is time for a win sir. A win which is good for the country and a win your base can believe in. Good solid tax relief is an excellent place to start.

A pimple on his arse...

"The little kid from North Korea might have pushed too hard, too far this time. As Nikki Halley said, "He longs for war". Well little guy, you wish might be our command. God help your people junior. They are about to pay a steep price for your immaturity."

Well, the little butt head did it again. Perpetrated an act of war on a sovereign neighbor. Flew another missile over Japan. How did Japan react? The same way as the first time. The population was sent to duck and cover.


I wonder once again - does this little runt have a death wish? Does he wish to be the last leader of a country which is about to be incinerated? What gives with him?  Listening to the President today talking about his tax reform proposal, he is focused on that GDP growth like a laser beam. The two hurricanes? He is hoping we can still sneak out a 3% GDP in spite of them. If not for the hurricanes - who knows how high the growth could have been.

One thing this President does not have time for, is more war. It is expensive and distracting. He wants both Iraq and Afghanistan to be over with a "W". But what about this distraction from the Korean Peninsula? This little kid who keeps kicking sand in our faces? Our President looks at him like a pimple or gnat on his behind. A major distraction to what he wants to do. And he is not going to put up with it much longer.

What is Trump going to do? More sanctions? More letters? More UN resolutions? Nope. Water off a duck's back. I think Trump is now going to nuke up South Korea and Japan. I really do. Japan has every right now to lay waste to the Norks for overflying their territory twice with missiles which could have been nukes. With over 4,000 nukes, we could nuke up both these countries in a heartbeat without hurting our readiness. 

Recently, Secretary Mattis was asked by a reporter if he was bothered by the daily threats we were getting from the Norks. His reply - "Nope." However, if the Norks overflew our country like they did to Japan, he would probably nuke them. Now we understand how the Japanese feel. They just want this to stop. If it has to be war, then war it is.

The little kid from North Korea might have pushed too hard, too far this time. As Nikki Halley said, "He longs for war". Well little guy, you wish might be our command. God help your people junior. They are about to pay a steep price for your immaturity.