Friday, April 12, 2013

Good News for the Modern Investor!


"Buckle up folks! The ride is on!"


Oh my gosh! What a ride we are on! The market is going up like a roman candle and if you jumped out too soon (because of listening to all the panic merchants), well, it sucks being you! I think the DOW might hit 15,000 before the end of the month and we will all be crying all the way to the bank!

Okay, enough already! Some know, and many do not, that the recent market run-up has NOTHING to do with reality. Just about every metric is wrong - all signs point to danger and lots of it. However, Jack Loo and the boys have us all believing in pixie dust. So I, as a self appointed "Dr. Doom", will lay out some factoids which will give some pause about the future of your tenuous investments.

  • Surprise! For those who thought the "too big to fail" for the banks are mistaken. The banks have been given mucho candy by the Administration and are bigger than ever. One huge bank failure could bring down the entire system. Dodd Frank did NOTHING to fix this except give everyone thousands of more job killing regulations.
  • The Debt. Sorry to keep bringing this up, since the President recently told us it was "no biggie". We are getting ready to pass $17T and even with the most austere budget being discussed, we will probably be at $20T by the time the President's term is up. The interest to service this debt will be mind boggling.
  • Jobs. Oh yes, now that we are convinced that a 14.4% U6 unemployment is the "new norm", finding a job with a "livable wage" and decent bennies is as rare as hen's teeth. However, there are plenty service sector jobs with lower wages and no bennies. If you want to strike it rich however, get a government job. That is where the money is these days.
  • Energy. We continue to live by the skin of our teeth on energy. All we need is one shock in the Middle East, a major storm, a refinery fire, or whatever, to send our fuel pricings rising once again. Yet, the President insists on pouring good money after bad into "green" boondoggles.
  • The Euro Zone. Don't relax folks - it ain't over yet. Portugal, Spain, Cyprus, Ireland, Greece and Italy continue to struggle. All it will take is one match to start financial contagion in Europe that will spread over here in a New York minute.
  • War. How safe do you feel today? We have a young nut with nukes telling us he will ignite our cities, we have another nut trying to finish his nukes so he can destroy Israel and "The Great Satan (us)". And of course, the War on Terror is far from over. Any armed conflict in the world will send world markets tumbling.
So, anyhow, who cares? Pop those champagne corks and blow up the balloons. The party is on. The Fed continues to print money giving us this false euphoria. They are our best friends. We know they are doing the best for our country. This whole inflation and deflation thing is just another right wing fear tactic - right? WRONG! When the Fed uses its last arrow from the quiver, the bottom is really going to fall out. The market will adjust to what it should be and the tears will be flowing like rain. That is the news, and it is not good.

1 comment:

  1. "We have a young nut with nukes telling us he will ignite our cities...."

    Which nut is that?

    ReplyDelete