And what if?

 

 

"He was a bad man. A very bad man indeed. Could he have kept ISIL at bay? Good question..."

Recently we have found out this bloodthirsty band in the Middle East called ISIL is NOT a JV team. So a question which seems to pop up more and more frequently now is this - Would ISIL exist if Saddam Hussein was still in power? In other words, if the United States had not gone into Iraq and deposed of Saddam, what would the Middle East look like right now? And if we had left Gaddafi in power. Or if Mubarak was still in power? In know, I know - this is the "what if" game.

I want to first address Saddam Hussein. Many of us can remember his naked aggression towards Kuwait in 1990. He invaded a sovereign state. In 1991, under the aegis of the United Nations, the United States led a large coalition on nations and removed Iraqi troops from Kuwait. However that war did not end with a defeat - like many recent conflicts, it ended with a negotiated peace treaty. And that treaty had stipulations. And should those stipulations ever be violated by Iraq, it could be "game on" all over again.

Well Saddam did break that treaty many times. There were subsequent UN resolutions condemning Iraq. Legally, the coalition could have gone back into Iraq at any time when the peace agreement was violated. Finally in 2003, the United States had enough. Saddam was a bad man. He used Mustard Gas on the Kurdish people in northern Iraq. He used chemical weapons on the Iranians during the 8 year war. The United States took care of what the United Nations should have.

The same is true for Libya. Even though it is not getting as much press and Syria and Iraq, Libya is a hot, hot mess. There really is no functioning government there. Even though Gaddafi was not the thug Hussein was, he was no saint either. Terrorists and criminals run free through the streets of many of Libyan cities. Egypt - not as bad. Egypt seems to have had the good sense to put the adults back in charge. ISIL will not have a free ticket to ride in that country.

My guess (and that is all it is) of how the Middle East would look now (if Hussein and Gaddafi were still in power) is this - it would still be a cauldron, only a different cauldron. ISIL believes strongly in the prophesy of the 12th Imam as well as living under Sharia Law. Libya, Syria, Egypt and Iraq all have (or had) secular governments. Would ISIL have been strong enough to topple these four governments? I don't know. That will be a good question for future historians.

Back to reality. No more "what if". This morning it was reported that ISIL had captured three more towns in Iraq. The "Iraqi Army" is rag-tag at best and in shambles. If the United States (or someone) does not enter the fray to back up what is left of the Iraqi Army, I am afraid Iraq will fall. If that happens, the world will once again have a front row seat to unfettered genocide. Stay tuned. I am afraid the Middle East is about to go from very bad to worse than bad.