Goodbye, April

"My feeling? If President Trump can lead us through this maze with no permanent damage, as well as vanquishing this virus, there is an empty spot on Mount Rushmore just waiting for his image to be chiseled into the rock. Yes, it would be that big of a deal - for sure."  

Can you feel it? The feeling of an entire month slipping away? We are less than 24 hours away from April. And then most all of April will be spent hunkered and bunkered. It will be a month like many of us have never experienced before. It will be a month (according to the medical experts), when the dreaded "spike" comes. And almost in a twist of irony, right now it looks like the spike will be here over Easter weekend.

Many feel this virus is not that big of a deal. Some feel our government did a "flinch" by shutting down much of the economy. Others feel it might even be a conspiracy to take away some of our freedoms. I understand why they feel this way. After all, this virus is not a grim reaper which could seriously cull our population. If the worse case scenario happens this time around, and we loose 200,000 citizens to COVID - 19, that is still only 200,000(deaths) divided by 330,000,000(population) = a number way less than one tenth of one percent of our population.

But here is the big deal. The number of projected deaths of 200,000, is if we do everything right this time around. Social distancing, washing our hands, hunkering and bunkering - everything. If we blow off this most contagious disease, that number could (and probably will) go much higher. Why? First time around. Many people have no natural immunity to it. Especially the "olds" and the compromised. So just like what we learned back in school, we have come to a decision tree. Go back to work and let nature take its course, or try to protect as much of our population as possible.

I know, I know. We lost over 600,000 to the Bird Flu without doing a flinch. We lost 675,000 to the Spanish Flu, and we lose 56,000 each year to the common flu. Of all these flu strains, the COVID - 19 stands apart from the rest, by how contagious it is. Frankly, it has shocked the experts on how long the virus can survive on different surfaces, as well as in the air. That being said, the next virus to come along might be more contagious - or not.

I think another way to look at 2020, is not the year we waged war against one strain of a virus. One strain, which left unchecked, could do serious damage to many people over time. No, I think this is the year of Infectology, as well as the Infectious Diseases doctors and nurses. This is the year we not only tame or kill COVID - 19, but any other virus to come along in the future. Our science will win that battle. Plus, this might also be the year we figure out how to take out the grand daddies of them all - the common flu and the common cold.

If we can look back on 2020 as a watershed year of mastering these killer viruses, then maybe all this economic pain would have been worthwhile. The trick the President needs to do (and maybe he is the only one who can pull this off), is how to win this virus war without permanently damaging our economy. I think he can do it. He has is surrounded by the right kind of smart people to make it happen.

But the first big sacrifice we need to make, is losing April. This will be the big test. We will see if the 2.2 trillion dollar stimulus bill will do what it is suppose to do. Along with losing Palm Sunday and all of Holy Week, we need to make sure families on the bubble don't go belly up. And companies don't shutter for good. 

My feeling? If President Trump can lead us through this maze with no permanent damage, as well as vanquishing this virus, there is an empty spot on Mount Rushmore just waiting for his image to be chiseled into the rock. Yes, it would be that big of a deal - for sure.  

And then, came Monday...

"Meanwhile, in the land of the 10,000 lakes, as well as the best medial care known in America, we have only 56 hospitalized to date. We have been very lucky so far. Here is an idea. First off, the folks on that cruise ship are all humans."

Okay. I get it. Some of my peeps think this thing is the end of the world. Others think it is the greatest hoax ever pulled. So which is it? I know the "body count" has not been spectacular as yet - that is, unless one of the bodies belongs to someone in your family. In any event, our President, right or wrong, is listening to his docs. And his docs are telling him to tread lightly going though April 2020.

Meanwhile, there is a Holland America ship headed for Ft. Lauderdale with 4 cadavers and almost 200 sick. The Florida Governor told the ship's captain to look somewhere else. The beds in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area needed to be saved for the locals who might (or are expected to) come down with the virus. So the ship needs to look somewhere else.

Meanwhile in New York, the USNS Comfort has landed in New York harbor and the Jacob Javits Center is getting ready to be conformed into a hospital center. In other words, New York is prepping for the worst. Other cities are also looking for beds and rooms to put the COVID - 19 sick into when the "spike" comes.

Meanwhile, in the land of the 10,000 lakes, as well as the best medial care known in America, we have only 56 hospitalized to date. We have been very lucky so far. Here is an idea. First off, the folks on that cruise ship are all humans. Also, many in New York who will will looking for an ICU bed, are also Americans. Also humans. Why can't we, in the land of the Mayo Brothers, in the land of the University of Minnesota, help treat these people? 

I am ready for the hate mail. "This is not a real crisis, or these people on the ship made their own bed". I get it. But my heart leans differently. They are part of the brotherhood of man, and they need our help. Later in this year, when this threat is behind us, we can talk about the politics and/or the pay back. Until then, can we please help each other get through this? Please? 

Joe who???

"Time to go, Joe. Well, not really. Your time to go was years ago. Like at the end of the Obama Administration. You have sucked off the government teat now for four long decades." 

In an alternate universe, I might actually be tempted to feel sorry for him. After all, just like in 2016 it was Hillary's turn, this year it is Joe's turn. One big problem however - many blue voters are now saying, "Joe who?". Yes, it is getting that bad for good old Uncle Joe.

Hey! What is there not to like with Joe? Well first off, all he does is yell. At who? About what? Everyone and everything. Joe likes to picture himself as a scrapper - a fighter. Like most Democrats, he is always saying he is "fighting" for something or someone (note most Republicans seldom use that word). In real life however, Joe is a bumbling old fool. Has trouble putting a cohesive thought together. He is a man who makes stuff up, as he has not done much in his life - only politics. He is a Walter Middy. And - a man who does not understand where the borders are with the opposite sex - no matter the age.

And Uncle Joe is also corrupt. Maybe the most corrupt VP ever. Worse than Spiro Agnew. Those in the know, understand that. If he were a Republican, he would have been tossed out with the garbage long ago. Joe has enriched his son, his brother and himself at the public expense. What does all this have to do with him becoming a good President? Not a dang thing. It does however should stand as a sound disqualifier for him never getting close to the front door of the White House - ever again.

To make matters even worse for Uncle Joe, is this virus thing. It has sucked all the oxygen out of his political theater. First it was those DNC sham impeachment hearings which took up all the ink in the press rooms. Now it is this pandemic. And - because Joe is unemployed (not a Mayor, Governor, nor Senator) he gets zero press time. Who is getting it? The rebirth of Mario - Governor Andrew. The Governor or New York, is using this crisis to tattoo his name and face on every DNC delegate prior to the Milwaukee convention.

What can Joe do to help himself out? Leave - and quickly. The longer he stays in the smidge of political daylight remaining to him, and he continues being a gaf machine, the bigger laughing stock he is with the public. Compared to Donald Trump, he is worse than a shrinking violet. In a Presidential debate, Trump would have him tied up in so many knots, Joe would need to see a Chiropractor when it was over.

Time to go, Joe. Well, not really. Your time to go was years ago. Like at the end of the Obama Administration. You have sucked off the government teat now for four long decades. You really have contributed nothing to this country. Employed nobody, made no product, did not even serve in the military. Just yelled and make unkept promises. Bye Joe - it was almost nice to have not known you. 

Good news in a sea of bad...

"Next week will be our first full week of 'lock down' in Minnesota. It will be many other states also. The bad news will continue to pour in. But in the midst of that flurry of bad news, I will search for the good. The rainbow after the downpour. Until then, stay strong, stay resolute, and stay healthy."

I kid you not. It is getting harder to watch the news these days. Especially on the 24 hour cable news channels. It is bad news, after bad news, on top of more bad news. And the majority of the time, the news is all about this new virus. If this were fiction, dressed up as a science fiction movie, I would have turned it off a long time ago. But it is not fiction. It is real life. And it is scary.

I told my wife the other day, I really worry about our youngins. The ones who are too young to really understand all of this. Heck, it is hard enough for the adults to understand it. How is this happening? Why is this happening? When will it all end? It is a barrage of unanswered questions, asked by a people hungry for answers.

Then when all seems to be Guhor (to use an old Russian term from my cryptology days), some good news starts to appear on the horizon. This morning, it was announced that next week, a new and accurate five minute test will be made available. You show some symptoms, take your temp, then call your health provider. If your health provider thinks there is some chance you might have the virus, you will go in, have your throat and nostrils swabbed, and then wait five minutes. If positive, and not very sick, you will be sent home to self isolate for two weeks. If negative, you just go on your way.

The Israelis are sending over large amounts of a drug which might work. Why then, send over millions of units when it is still unknown if they will work or not? Because if it is successful after the proper tests are completed, we will have a stock onshore which we can immediately start to use on sick people. That too was recently announced. Just like I addressed yesterday in "The docs fight back!", our medical community is not taking this fight lying down. All stops are being pulled out, all rocks unturned, to find one or more silver bullets needed to win this thing.

By the way, did you hear yesterday that everyone's favorite union (SEIU), mysteriously found a treasure trove of N 95 surgical masks? Wow! That is a lot of masks to have lost! In a country where surgical masks have been as scarce as hen's teeth, all of a sudden, 39,000,000 N 95 masks suddenly appear. In any event, the cat is now out of the bag, and our nation's supply of masks is in much better shape. 

Putting that news aside, did you also hear about My Pillow? Mike Lindell, has changed 75% of his manufacturing capacity from pillows, toppers and so forth - to making badly needed masks. Mike once again, makes us proud to be Americans, and especially proud to be Minnesotans.

Next week will be our first full week of "lock down" in Minnesota. It will be many other states also. The bad news will continue to pour in. But in the midst of that flurry of bad news, I will search for the good. The rainbow after the downpour. Until then, stay strong, stay resolute, and stay healthy.

Oh, how we will change...

"We will get through the next 14 days. We will get through whatever follows those 14 days. And we will come out of this better, smarter, and stronger. We have been caught with our pants down three times now. It won't happen to us again." 

Tonight at midnight, starts the big "lock down". The essential employees who will be out and about in the next 14 days, will have letters, approved by the state, proving they are essential. And if you are out and about without one? and don't have a good excuse (like going to the grocery story)? Unknown. But tonight we enter the tunnel and start looking for light on the other end. And what exactly will that other end look like? Here are some ideas:

• Prediction # 1 - As I was out burning some brush and turkey excrement this afternoon, I was listening to Sean on the radio. He (as a native New Yorker), brought up a very good point. How in the world, could NYC, which is one of the top terror targets in the world, be caught flat footed by this virus? With not enough emergency supplies? Here it comes - that will never happen again. Not to New York, not to Minneapolis, not to Grand Island. Every city will have a stout and robust disaster plan, with the IMMEDIATE resources to back it up. Count on it. 
• Prediction # 2 - We are close to some cures for some forms of cancer. We are also getting closer to better treatments for Alzheimer's, MS and MD. I fully expect those diseases to be all but tamed by the end of the decade. HOWEVER - we are still a mile away from a good vaccine for the common cold or common flu. The common flu, this bastard child of the Spanish Flu, still kills kills hundreds of thousands of humans annually. Like between 300,000 and 650,000. The work we are doing on COVID - 19, as well as the work we did on SARS, MERS as well as others, will lead to us finally getting rid of these two common viruses this decade.
• Prediction # 3 - Get used to being wanded by a thermometer every day before entering work or school. Temps, even very small ones, will be a disqualifier to being at work or at school that day. For those whose temps naturally run a bit higher, they will need a doctor's note with them at all times, which attests that fact.
• Prediction # 4 - What is the most common complaint most of us hear about all this washing of our hands? Raw hands. Cracked and bleeding hands. Look for major soap manufacturers to finally come up with soaps which will clean per FDA standards, and still not leave your hands looking like you just came out of a knife fight.
• Prediction # 5 - Right now, our mass transportation systems are all but dead. Fact. Look at the passenger loads on airplanes. Just in our little sleepy hollow alone, we have had 250 to over 300 flights cancelled each day this week. And it ain't because of the weather. Cruise ships, airplanes, trains, buses - all need a re-boot. I believe that companies such as Hepa will upgrade their filters for mass transportation which will make the air people breathe, about as pure as pure can get. Regardless if someone is sharing the ride, and has a contagious virus. When will this happen? Sooner rather than later. My guess? Maybe this year or early next. Without that confidence builder, that flight or cruise to Hawaii might be a long time coming.
• Prediction # 6 - "Hey - you are violating my space bubble, man!". Funny joke from the past. Not so funny today. Look for people's space bubbles to get much bigger, very fast. Six feet? Mine is ten feet right now, and I still feel violated. When will this happen? When new space bubbles are common? When we come out of the tunnel. And it will be painful for some.

There will be many changes for sure. Either ones which are much more subtle than the ones I listed, or ones I just did not think of. Like 9/11 changed the way we live, so will this virus. But I believe we need to look at this as a watershed moment in our history. Something which will allow us to live as a free people, yet be a whole lot smarter on how to survive things seen like 9/11, and things unseen, like COVID -19. 

We will get through the next 14 days. We will get through whatever follows those 14 days. And we will come out of this better, smarter, and stronger. We have been caught with our pants down three times now, starting on December 7, 1941. It won't happen to us again.     

The docs fight back!

"In any event, if COVID - 19 is seasonal, like Dr. Fauci fears, we will be much more prepared for it next year. Our PPE's and ventilators should be in much better stock, and maybe, just maybe, and new anti-virus will be on the scene." 

I had this thought the other day, after listening to the Governor of New York whine (again), how flat footed New York was caught by this new virus. This is like an invisible Pearl Harbor Day. Many knew an attack from the Japanese was likely somewhere in the Pacific, and yet, we remained pleasantly optimistic. That is, until a good portion of our Pacific fleet was sunk or damaged on December 7th, 1941.

The rest is history. The "sleeping giant" was awakened, and our nation went into  unprecedented war footing. Not just with the numbers of young men called to arms, but the amount of national manufacturing which transformed into making war machines. Without that ability to transform our manufacturing, the war would have surly been lost to the Axis Powers.

Today, here comes the sneak attack by COVID - 19. After being through close calls from SARS in 2003, and MERS in 2012, we should have learned our lesson. These stone cold respiratory killers should have taught us, that these type of viruses were not yet done with mankind. They should have - but we did not our lesson. So we collectively tripped along life's journey, fat, dumb, and happy. Many to most of the PPE's and ventilators which were used up during SARS and MERS episodes, were not replaced by either the states nor the fed. So when COVID - 19 came alone earlier this year, many states (like New York), were no more than sitting ducks.

There will be lessons learned once this is over. And hopefully, some heads will roll. Why? There is simply NO EXCUSE for ANY state to be running low on PPE's right now, especially the N 95 masks. And ventilators? Don't get me started! Emergency ICU bed space? A MUST HAVE! Each state's health department will be (or should be) adamant on having ALL emergency supplies totally adequate for ANY emergency. The docs who work for the state or federal governments should be leading that fight. Right now, seeing some of the health care workers in NYC dressed in garbage bags, is worse than unacceptable.

But the docs worldwide are getting some "knock out punches" ready for this round of COVID - 19. They are looking at anything and everything on how to kill it, before it kills too many more of us. This stretches from antimalarial chloroquine, to using plasma taken from people who have had the disease and recovered from it. The plasma idea might have some merit. Why? Antibodies. Antibodies which we, who have never been exposed to this virus, do not yet have. Plus, just about every research lab in the civilized world, is looking for a new silver bullet in fighting this thing. 

In any event, if COVID - 19 is seasonal, like Dr. Fauci fears it might be, we will be much more prepared for it next year. Our PPE's and ventilators should be in much better stock, and maybe, just maybe, a new anti-virus vaccine or two will be on the scene. 

During the Gulf War, then General Powell said one of my favorite quotes. "I don't like a fair fight. I like to go into a fight with overwhelming odds." That is the way our nation's doctors feel. They hate fighting from behind. When or if COVID - 19 comes back, they want to fight it with overwhelming odds.    

     

Sheltered, sequestered, in place

"Stay prepped, stay aware, but most of all, stay healthy. No matter how dark the cloud is which approaches, there will be light on the other side. And maybe even, a rainbow."

Get ready for this. My wife and I are about to throw some sunshine towards our Governor. And it has to do with his 2 pm announcement yesterday. Forget just for a minute what the subject line was. I know some are pleased, and others are hopping mad. About halfway through his announcement, my wife turned to me and said, "Could you imagine if we still had Mark Dayton? And he was trying to mumble his way through the explanation?" No, I really could not imagine Mark Dayton leading the state right now.

Love it or hate it, the "shut down" starts at COB on Friday. Do I think we will have the SiP order (Shelter in Place) until April 10th? Maybe. It was a guess by the Governor. Just like the President saying we will be up and running by Easter. It all depends on the curve, baby! I really don't like thinking about the "curve" as just something on a graph. Rather, I think of it as a tsunami. Where all of a sudden, up to 2.4 million people in Minnesota could become infected with this disease.

Where does that leave the elderly shut ins in the state? Depends on the weather. If the weather is anywhere from "just okay" to marvelous, being sequestered might be tolerable. If the weather is cold, rainy, or snowy - being stuck at home for two weeks or more, could start to suck real fast. But, we will all do what we need to do. Our job is to stay at home. Not the toughest assignment I have ever had.

The thing I remain focused on the most right now, is that our country (unlike with Swine, SARS, and MERS) learns something. So, the next time we get visited by an unannounced virus, our state leaders are not running around with their hair on fire. Yes, I am talking about you New York. You have really set the example on how to be prepared for a pandemic - a bad example.

One more thing of note. This country, in a partial shut down mode, needs to learn how to stay somewhat productive when a good portion of the work force in mobile. The President is right - we can't just shut everything down for 2 months or so, and expect at the end of that time, things are back to normal. They won't be. And as strong as our economy is, we can still crash it. Then we will have real problems.

That is it this morning from the Bird's Bunker. Stay prepped, stay aware, but most of all, stay healthy. No matter how dark the cloud is which approaches, there will be light on the other side. And maybe even, a rainbow.

New York, New York...

"If nothing else, this invasion of the invisible COVID - 19 virus has been a wake up call for the world. If we learn nothing, it will end up just being an expensive waste of human life and resources. If we learn a lot, it could protect us from going though this again. Let's try and getting smarter this time. Or the next time, could be the last time." 

New York City. For those who live there, it is home to just about everything. Like - why would anyone live anywhere else? For those of us who do not live there, especially out here in "fly over land", many in the "city" look at us as hayseeds. But right now, this large, happening city, has a huge problem. Because they have always prided themselves in living vertical, living in the middle of the action, recommended social distancing has taken a hit. The result is a world "hotbox" for COVID - 19.

Then comes the rise of Mario Jr. (Andrew). He is one the news every day now with an update. With 433,000 cases worldwide, 55,000 of those in the United States, New York alone has 26,000 of them - almost half of what the country has. And with that number of cases, and the projections for the number to go much higher, New York state, and in particular, New York City, has a huge problem. And people are dying in New York - so far, 271 people have passed.

Here is the issue which New York faces. Besides the normal sickness which requires some to be hospitalized, this wave of new patients which need ICU beds due to COVID - 19 infections, are swamping the system. EVERYTHING is in short supply. Ventilators, masks, gowns, gloves, beds, and - doctors and nurses. This is a mess of the highest order. New York might soon look like Italy where doctors need to decide who gets an ICU bed and lives, and who does not get a bed, and dies.

It is not my intent to get political in this post, as this is no time for politics. That being said, here is an excellent reason why living vertical has its risks. Agenda 21, the pet rock of the UN, is a loser. So is Thrive 2040 in Minnesota. The states in "fly over land", where suburbia and acreage live, the numbers of infection are much lower. They are still bad, but nothing like NYC or other large, vertical cities. When this is over and we do a national lessons learned, I hope this makes the list.

Speaking of the "lessons learned list", I have a few suggestions:

• Since many of our recent virus outbreaks have been ones which attack the upper respiratory system, we should have tens of millions of ventilators in our national stock system.
• We should also have at least a billion N 95 masks, and maybe more of the non - N 95 masks in our nation's supply system.
• When I was in boot camp, we had an empty hospital ward with sixty beds, cleaned and ready to go. It was there "just in case". We need to do the same in our country. Many, many more ICU beds, cleaned and ready to go - "just in case".
• Grocery stores will change how they operate at the check out counter. Better safeguards for both the customer and clerk alike, and much cleaner.
• Digital thermometers will become very common, and "swiping" one's forehead every morning before work or school should become routine.
• "Distance learning" and "social distancing" are here to stay (in some form).
• Washing one's hands will go from just a rinse, to an art form.
• Shaking hands might just become very rare. Hello, fist bumping.

If nothing else, this invasion of the invisible COVID - 19 virus has been a wake up call for the world. If we learn nothing, it will end up just being an expensive waste of human life and resources. If we learn a lot, it could protect us from going though this again. Let's try and getting smarter this time. Or the next time, could be the last time.  

Grandma, or the 401k?

"Whoever said these are strange days, was not just whistling Dixie. Historic days. Days which will change our future. Stay strong. Somehow, we will get through this. That is, most of us will."      

Well, it looks like we are coming to the "great decision". And it will not be between the Democrats and the Republicans. It will be between the economists and the doctors. What is the question to be answered? When do we bring our great economy back to life. For many, it is believed if we let it "sleep" too much longer, it might be able to be resuscitated. Of course, there are risks to doing that. According to our medical profession, life or death risks.

First, a bit about this pesky little virus. As time goes on, we are learning more and more about it. Like, it can live on carpet for up to seventeen days. And we can't get rid of this thing - only slow it down. In fact, we are hearing from more and more sources that up to 80% of us will eventually get it. Our only hope is to slow it down enough to allow the restocking of ventilators, N 95 masks, and other necessary items. 

What if this 80% number is correct? And we can whittle down the number of fatalities to 1% of those infected? For a country of about 330 million, the math does not look good on this. 330,000,000 x 80% x 1% = 2,640,000 people. Many of them elderly. Of course, with a proper vaccine, all those numbers go away. But without a vaccine, we will be gambling over 2.5 million Americans to bring back our economy.

My guess as to what will happen? Even though it makes medical sense to stay hunkered and bunkered until at least May 1st, I think that in early April we might start to send people back to work and school - to a degree. However, as many that can work from home will still be encouraged to do so. And as many students who can successfully learn from online school or home school, we be encouraged to do so.

In the absence of a widely used and safe vaccine, the virus will then spread across the land like wildfire. Testing will become more prolific, and many will test positive. Some will remain asymptomatic and only be carriers, while others will be symptomatic and become sick. Some very sick, and some will die. 

This is the quandary that President Trump is facing. It is a decision I am glad I do not have to make. But it is a decision which must be made, and quickly. If this new idea of using an existing malaria drug along with a zip pack works, then we can have our economy back as well as not sacrificing too many citizens.

Whoever said these are strange days, was not just whistling Dixie. Historic days. Days which will change our future. Stay strong. Somehow, we will get through this. That is, most of us will.      

Rx, for an unplanned disaster

"But the big 'whoops' is how our nation is fighting this thing. Instead of having a rock solid plan in place, one which would not require this choice of shutting down the economy or protecting the citizens, we get daily spits and starts."

What we are seeing right now, as this nation is all tied up in knots from last week, is a perfect example of not being prepared, Relax - this is not about individual prepping - although I could blather on about that for pages. This is about how our nation prepares for an unplanned disaster. And in my book, this invasion of an unseen virus, has turned into an unplanned disaster.

Let's just for a minute, revisit some of our fairly recent history on actual or near disasters:


Y2K - We had forever and a day to plan for this thing. This thing which never happened. But if it had, we had some plans in place. To some degree, we were ready.

9/11 - We really got caught with our shorts down. Even though, the bad guys had tried to take down the twin towers in 1993, we learned nothing. In our naivete, we knew this could never happen again. We are America. We have oceans protecting us. So when it did happen in 2001, this nation (collectively), was running around like our hair was on fire. The market tanked, things came to a standstill, and the government told us to go out and "buy something". It was a mess and took a long time and over a trillion dollars to recover.

SARS - This could have been a worldwide killer. SARS stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. This hit the world stage about 2003 and spread from there. Fortunately, this disease was not that tough to contain, as its transmission was basically limited to drops of moisture let loose when and infected person coughed or sneezed. After dodging this bullet, it would have been a great time for world leaders (especially ours) to come up with a plan should this ever happen again. Like, if the next virus was much easier to transmit. We did nothing.

MERS - Similar to SARS, this respiratory virus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) came about in 2012. Like SARS, it was a stone cold killer. About 75% of the folks which got it, died. Also like SARS, it was tough to transmit. Had to be moisture let loose from an infected person with a cough or sneeze. Once again, after dodging this bullet, it would have made sense for the WHO and CDC to come with a plan on what to do if something much tougher came along. We did nothing.

Coronavirus - That brings us to today. How prepared were we for this new virus which came from Wuhan China? Not very, I am afraid. Since SARS and MERS attacked the upper respiratory area (just like the common flu does), one would think we would have had respirators and ventilators coming out of the woodwork. We did not. In our panic, we needed to have companies (like an auto manufacturer), re-purpose their lines to make respirators. But we still have a critical shortage. We also have a severe shortage of surgical masks and testing kits.

But the big "whoops" is how our nation is fighting this thing. Instead of having a rock solid plan in place, one which would not require the choice of shutting down the economy or protecting the citizens, we get daily spits and starts. We are trying to figure this out as we go. Full shut down, partial shut down, or no shut down? Unknown at this point. Meanwhile, NYC has turned into a global "hot zone" for being late to the party with no plan. Like maybe having 10,000 cases of coronavirus in that city alone.

This weekend, the Governor of New York had a presser which gave some grim news. This new virus is so virulent, the measures we are using to protect people are only temporary. In other words, up to 80% of New Yorkers will eventually get the disease. Cuomo said we need to slow this down until we get enough respirators. This is a plan?

Meanwhile, how are you doing? Are you positive or negative with this virus? Don't know? Join the crowd. Since this virus can live within a person for weeks without showing any symptoms, and still be infectious, many of us end up being unwilling carriers. Very few of us are being tested. Those who know they have the virus can go into a "self quarantine". Those who don't (because we won't test them), just keep on spreading the virus.

Here it is only Monday. Again, more questions than answers. Stay informed, stay prepared, try and stay healthy. Good luck to us all. 

  

   

Is it only fear itself we have to fear? Or not?

"I just hope that many minds much sharper than mine, are looking for the proper balance. Starve the virus, without starving the economy. Can we do it? Sure hope so. Meanwhile, we are five weeks (and change) away from May 1st."

We need to come together and find a solution. And we need to do it fast. On what? The vaccine? We have already covered that. Not quite. We need to find a solution to where the happy median is. Some are saying we have way over-reacted in shutting so many things down. That it is tanking the economy. No doubt that statement has validity. Also, the number of people who will die from this will be way less than previous outbreaks as well as the common flu. That statement might also have merit.

But on the other side of the equation are the caution flags. The people who think this COVID - 19 is a different bird all together. Even our own (and highly respected) Mike Osterholm, thinks once this virus has run its initial course, our new normal will look different from our old normal. More and more cities and states are starting either a formal or informal "shelter in place" practice. That the only way we can win this thing, is to continue to "starve" this virus, until we can "kill it" with a vaccine.

The President seems to think our biggest priority right now is protecting our citizens. Making sure as few as possible die from this thing. He is convinced (and oh, do we hope he is right on this one), that once we "flatten the curve", and start serious testing of a working vaccine, our economy will come roaring back to life. But to do that, we must first hibernate our economy to such a degree, it might look to be dead. 

Some think the reason Italy is having such a high death toll, is due mostly to age and pre-existing conditions. That might be true. If it is, Italy has shown itself to be a fairly unhealthy place to live. How so? Way short on resources needed to fight this thing - as well as being very slow to react when it first appeared. But Italy is still used as the example of how things could be if we don't react correctly to this virus.

Yesterday, I took some fire across my bow, as I suggested a national "shelter in place" until May 1st. It would not be a full shut down - many could still work from home if their type of job allowed it. People would still be employed at health care facilities, grocery stores, and drug stores. Farmers would still be able to farm their land. And some factories which had the proper protections would be allowed to remain open.

Just out of coincidence, yesterday afternoon, the on-line USA Today had an editorial by a person named Yaneer Bar-Nam. He is an MIT guy who studies pandemics. His thesis in the editorial was the same as mine. Shut things down for five weeks (that would put us out to around May 1st). Was he right? Was I right? Unknown, at this point in time.

I just hope that many minds much sharper than mine, are looking for the proper balance. Starve the virus, without starving the economy. Can we do it? Sure hope so. Meanwhile, we are five weeks (and change) away from May 1st. Until we reach that date, good luck to us all.



    

Shutting down. Fear, fact or flinch?

"There will come a day, hopefully sooner rather than later, that a vaccine will be available to kill this thing. Then our lives will continue as they have been. Only (as the President says), we will come out of this stronger and smarter. I totally agree with him on that point." 

Drudge is reporting, that right now 20% of the nation is shut down. Of course, having California in that mix really shot that number up. There were rumors going around yesterday that the Governor of Minnesota might mandate a "shelter in place" for Minnesota starting on Monday. Turns out - just a rumor. However, Illinois did it. And NYC did it (sort of). In any event, all this hub-bub over shutting down has led to a national conversation. Is shutting a state down based on fear, on fact, or is it a flinch?

Every doctor which I have heard on the media, especially the world famous docs who are on the President's task force, say the same thing. Stay away from each other, wash your hands frequently, and don't touch your face. Most importantly, protect the elderly and immune compromised. Not one doc I have heard, has said to "blow this thing off". But many folks I know of, think this is a poor trade off. To trade our economy for a the few thousand lives this virus may cost us. Even though the President addresses this issue daily, that question remains.

By the way - here is a fact. If we let this virus get on top of us, like what happened in Italy, the death tole can look very scary. Yesterday, in one day alone, over 600 Italians died. That brings their death tole up to 4,000 since this virus invasion began. This is in a country which has less than a fifth of our population. In other words, that would be like our country having over 20,000 deaths from this virus so far. Would that change any minds?

Also, this virus (according to the medical profession), is over three times as likely to be transmitted as the regular flu virus is. And if you catch it, and if you are elderly or compromised, at best you will get a hospital stay. At worst, a funeral. And what the WHO has found out from young people who have caught this virus in Europe AND survived - what it can do to the lungs is "terrifying". Bad damage, sometimes permanent.

President Trump is confident our economy will come roaring back ONLY IF we beat this virus. And yes, beating this virus might mean taking a hiatus from our daily lives for a while. This is not fear talking - this is leadership. There are few things in life which mean more to our President than our economy does. He is damned proud of it, and should be. However, one of the things which means more to him than our economy, is the safety and well being of the American people. For that reason, he is willing to unplug the motor of our economy for just a while. Long enough to (as Lindsey Graham said), to "starve the virus".

I would like to see the entire country shut down until May 1st. Then we can check to see how (or if) this contagion is being checked. Shelter in place, working at home if able to. Schools will all practice "distance learning". Folks would be able to shop for food, medicine, and to see an doctor if an emergency. Other than that, our homes would be our everything.

There will come a day, hopefully sooner rather than later, that a vaccine will be available to kill this thing. Then our lives will continue as they have been. Only (as the President says), we will come out of this stronger and smarter. I totally agree with him on that point. 

Not all will agree with me on this post. In fact, many will not. But this is the way I feel. This is the way the doctors feel. This is the way the President feels. One day, we will have a cure for every disease which ails us. But that someday is not quite here as yet. Until we can "kill" these germs and viruses, all we can do is "starve" them. And that is what I think we should do. NOW.

California - behold the bold!

"Once the American people get to the point they are sick to death, of putting up with this virus which can make them sick to death, they will agree to put their lives, their families lives, on hold for a month or so."

I will be the first to admit I rarely if ever agree with Gavin Newsom. But he has done two things as of late which are very, very gutsy and correct. First off, he gave the President kudos for how he is doing in managing this COVID - 19 crisis. Usually, he spouts off that the President cannot even cross the street correctly. Then came yesterday. The boldest thing any Governor of California has probably ever done. He shut down his state. Everyone is to stay home.

A state of 40 million people. A state with a GDP of over $3 T dollars. A state, if it were a sovereign country, would the world's fifth largest economy. To shut this state down, takes guts. A real commitment to "flatten the curve". This is also what the Mayor of NYC wants to do. However, the Governor of New York is not yet of that ilk. Neither is the Governor of Minnesota. But it might come to that. For all of us. How soon? Maybe before the end of March.

The feds and the states have been doing a lot of thing right in this war on COVID - 19. The one thing however, which sticks out like a sore thumb, is this paucity of valid tests. If we could test everyone in the country, we would know exactly where we stood right now. For example, the Governor of California said it is his belief that if his state were not shut down, the infection rate could reach over 50%. Rather than a guess or an estimate, I would like to know the exact number of infections NOW in California. Also in New York. And in Minnesota.

Maybe the best news to come out yesterday for California as well as the rest of the nation was Malaria. Not the disease, but the vaccine. Seems there is a glimmer of hope this COVID - 19 virus does not like this Malaria vaccine. Wouldn't that be a God send for so many, if true!

In any event Lindsey Graham summed it up well yesterday. "First we are going to starve this virus, by practicing social distancing and proper cleanliness. Then we are going to bomb it with vaccines which will kill it." The Malaria vaccine could be one of those vaccines to "bomb" it with. Thank you Senator Graham. Your words were spoken like a Colonel in the Army Reserve.

I mentioned this before, but it might bear repeating. The only way the American people will agree to draconian measures like sheltering in place, is if they feel that is less painful than giving in to this runaway virus, with some potentially deadly effects. Once the American people get to the point they are sick to death, of putting up with this virus which can make them sick to death, they will agree to put their lives, their families lives, on hold for a month or so.

So one more time. Well done, Governor Newsome. A gutsy move, and a right move. "Bending" or "flattening" the curve might just take gutsy moves such as this. Having the most populous state Governor, you might just have set the tone for the rest of us to follow. That is what leadership is all about.     

Some Mercy and Comfort please...

"All I can say in conclusion is this - thank God we live in the United States. Thank God we have President Trump at the helm. And thank God we have the vast medical prowess and acumen we have in our country."

For a change, our government is working like a real government should. Senator Lindsey Graham said yesterday that, "This was the most united he has seen our government since 9/11". Good. And I love either watching or listening to the daily pressers with the Vice President (often times the President also joins), and the nation's medical team. Every day it seems our government gets smarter and more prepared for this very tiny, maybe deadly, and uninvited guest.

Yesterday it was announced the USNS Comfort and the USNS Mercy were being prepped for duty. One will be stationed off of NYC, and the other one some yet to be determined place on the west coast. Both these ships are monsters in fighting diseases or treating the hurting. To activate these ships was a smart thing to do, and to do it now was very timely. As NYC is becoming a "hot spot", having these additional beds available will be a God send.

Also yesterday, it was announced the President had invoked the 70 year old (and rarely used), Defense Production Act. Why is this important? If things really start to hit the fan, we will need a boat load more ventilators, respirators and surgical masks. This new authority gives the president the right to direct private companies to immediately make these items - even if that is not what their business is. It really is a wartime act. But according to the President, we are at war with this virus. 

Here is the sobering news, if I may report it. The worse case scenario with this virus, even if we can stay on top of fighting it, is this first round of the battle may last as long as eighteen months. Why eighteen? That is how long it is estimated it will take to have a "go to market", successful vaccine. If it is shorter - great. But having a vaccine will be the silver bullet which will end this war. Why is that? It is thought that like a common cold, even though you have this virus once, you can still get re-infected at a later time. Without a vaccine, we could be doing this stork dance for a long, long time. With a successful vaccine, life may once again return to normal.

Today, a bit past sun up, we will attempt to go to the grocery store. Seniors are encouraged to go early, to take advantage of a defacto "seniors only" time to shop. This might be our new norm until this ends. Going in, disinfecting our cart, keeping a safe distance from others, getting what is available, coming home, and disinfecting everything we bought. Sound paranoid? Or smart? This is the way the nation's medical team is recommending we do it. So we will. If we can't trust our doctors, then we are really screwed.

All I can say in conclusion is this - thank God we live in the United States. Thank God we have President Trump at the helm. And thank God we have the vast medical prowess and acumen we have in our country. But mostly, we pray to God for His protection, comfort and mercy as we go forward in this battle.

Spring Break!!!

"Looking for something to do on spring break kids, that will take your mind off of yourself? Volunteer. Shop for older folks. Check in on older friends and neighbors. Give to food and clothing shelves. Volunteer there."

Boy, oh boy, oh boy! Did I ever love spring break when I was in college! One year Maui, the next year Cancun, and the third year, South Beach. Girls, beer, party time and beach time! It was great! Well not really. Spring break when I was in college was nothing more than an opportunity to get some more hours in doing my part time job(s). Even getting the GI Bill, I was as broke as a joke in college. Plus - I got married before I graduated, and my student wife and I were broke together. When we were not studying, we were working.

Of course, I graduated with $0 student debt. My wife had $1,000 she incurred before we got married. But that was it. Kids today, who love to travel down to Florida and beyond for spring break, often times graduate with tens of thousands in debt. Is there something wrong with that picture? And today, in an unprecedented time of needing social responsibility, we can't get these butt heads off the beach, even though they are playing with fire. They can easily become carriers to this disease which has proved to be so deadly to older and compromised folks. Like their grandma and grandpas.

I don't care which doctor is on TV right now, the message is all the same. Act responsible. We do all of us need to act in a manner which will "flatten the curve" of infection. If we do not, if we all act like the youngins on spring break, we take the real risk of overloading our medical system with COVID - 19 patients. What does that mean? It means Italy, where decisions need to be made on who lives and who dies. Rationing. Can it happen here? Absolutely. Check out the numbers. We simply do not have enough hospital beds, respirators or ventilators if this virus goes unchecked.

I know, I know. I sound "preachy" right now. I really don't mean to. All I want if for all of us to get though this together and then go back to some sort of normal life. In case you have not noticed, lives for most of us are far from normal. And are going to be less normal for a while longer. Heck, yesterday, the midwestern state of Kansas threw in the towel for school. All schools will be closed for the rest of the the year. Now, California is considering doing the same. And NYC wants to go into a "shelter in place" mode, like San Francisco has done.

President Trump's medical team is watching the daily infection numbers like hawks. This federal government of ours, along with our state governments, are ready to enact draconian measures if need be. Nobody in our government wants to go into a national "lock down" mode like Italy, Ireland or Spain, but we might if we have to. What will keep us from doing that? Individual responsibility. Individual responsibility leads to social responsibility. And social responsibility leads us on a quicker path back to normalcy.

Looking for something to do on spring break kids, that will take your mind off of yourself? Volunteer. Shop for older folks. Check in on older friends and neighbors. Give to food and clothing shelves. Volunteer there. Give, give, give. Why? Your country needs you. Now, more than ever.

Traveling into the suck...

"Our motto going forward might be 'we are our brother's keepers'. Now is the time for all of us to lean on each other. Some will be hit harder than others. Stress will become the mood of the day. We need grace in dealing with other, and compassion for other's struggles."

Seems that every day, we get more and more isolated. Less freedoms. Less places to go. Less things to do. For some, less opportunities to make money. Not to plagiarize history, but these are the times which will try men's (and women's) souls. As bad as things are now, they might get a whole lot worse. How worse? Total lock down worse, like in Italy, Ireland and Spain. Or, shelter in place worse, like what is happening in San Francisco. 

Grocery stores are struggling not to present bare shelves. Restaurants will struggle to say open, since they will just be allowed to serve take out, or delivery. Bars will be shut down, most attractions in town will be shuttered, and of course, school will be out of session. In a period of just a few weeks, we have gone from normal to anything but normal. And the changes to our normal have come faster than a Nolan Ryan fastball.

The docs that are on the virus task force are pretty hard over on one major point. The faster we "flatten the curve", the faster we will all be able to return to some semblance of normalcy. However, to play footsie with this virus, to not take it seriously, could mean many more fatalities, and abnormal living going out into 2021. Italy waited too long before taking this thing head on, and now they are counting the daily dead by the hundreds.

Even after things start to return to normal, they will not be. Our society will have changed due to this virus. How we live, how we interact, how we everything. If we are smart, we will have learned a lesson. If we are like the spring break kids on Florida's beaches right now, we will all be on a fool's errand. 

Our motto going forward might be "we are our brother's keepers". Now is the time for all of us to lean on each other. Some will be hit harder than others. Stress will become the mood of the day. We need grace in dealing with other, and compassion for other's struggles. If you are a person of faith, prayers will certainly be encouraged.

Love it or hate it folks, the full force of the federal government is going to get behind the American people and the businesses they work for. The price tag for beating this thing might run into the trillions. But we will make it. If we use our heads, listen to the medical experts, there is no doubt we will make it through to the other side.  

The remote learning sea change

"I think this is very exciting. Most of our kids will rise to this challenge and do very well. I expect so well, the test scores for most will go up. Real learning will take place. A new sense of responsibility will take hold."

Okay you change agents! Wake up! This is the event you have been waiting for. How do I know? I too, am a change agent. Not for all things - but some things. Like education. Of all the things which need changing, NOTHING needs it more than education. Why? Using today's model, too many kids get left behind. Too many kids don't learn nearly enough. Not in all districts, but in some. 

Enter "remote learning". Some might refer to it as online learning. Something Control Data played around with in the 1980's, using their Plato program. The President of Old Miss was on the news this morning discussing remote learning. He was almost giddy talking about it. In his words, once we get into this pool, we might never come out. In other words, this event, this COVID-19 outbreak, could change higher ed forever. Maybe secondary education also. 

There are some kinks to work out for sure. But that is why we have the wizards of smart working on this. Like I said, online learning is not new - been around for decades. But to have it mainstreamed, that is a horse of a different color. But with this new social distancing we are all stuck with, mainstreaming it will be. Oh - and besides much more online learning, get ready for more home schooling. How do I know? Our government does not want our country to look like Italy - where almost 400 people died in one day due to COVID-19. This - more social isolation for all.

What are the tools needed to make this work? First and foremost, a laptop or tablet. Then of course, easy access to the internet. What if a student comes from poverty and cannot afford either of those? First problem to be solved. But with our education system awash in money, I don't thing that problem will be too hard to figure out. What about students who decide to blow off this opportunity, and just play video games instead? As part of the "woke" generation, it will be time these kids all "awoke". No more coddling. If they need help, help is there. But, if they don't produce with the tools they are given, and eschew getting help, good luck on the outside.

I think this is very exciting. Most of our kids will rise to this challenge and do very well. I expect so well, the test scores for most will go up. Real learning will take place. A new sense of responsibility will take hold. Teenagers will start acting like young adults instead of clones of Beavis and Butt-head. 

Today in many districts across Minnesota, starts the planning for how to make remote learning work for K-12. Wednesday will be the day it will be mandatory for all districts. This will be a BIG change for all students, for all families of those students. But we will get through this. We will be better for it on the other side. We all need to embrace change, because change is coming, and coming fast.