"What do I think the message would be from Trump to both the UK and Argentina? Make a deal. Have the military stand down. More war cannot and will not be tolerated. That is it. That is as far as I think our involvement in the Falkland Islands dispute will go. Trump sees bigger fish in the sea."
Are we on the verge of another war? No, not the "rubbing the wrong way" that Turkey and Israel are doing to each other over Syria. I am talking about the Falkland Islands. That Argentina might end up invading these islands and planting the Argentine flag on them. Kicking the Brits out, as they say. Wait a minute! Have we not already seen this movie? Argentina tried this before, and the Brits kicked back - hard!
Things change over time. Javier Melei and Donald Trump have somewhat of a bromance going on. It is no secret that during the recent tenure of Kier Starmer, our relationship with the Brits has soured quite a bit. Seems like the recent revelation the US has had about unchecked immigration, and DEI, was not on the same path as the Brits were on. As such, the relationship between the US and our closest Euro ally became very strained. And the once great and powerful United Kingdom, is now only a shadow of the stature it once enjoyed.
Now before some might give a collective "so what", here is the "so what". It is what is happening in the other hand (as the magicians would say). Donald Trump has been forging much stronger bonds with many of the countries in South America. The strongest alliance right now seems to be with Argentina. The case that Argentine is making for getting the Falkland Islands back seems to be sound to our current administration. Then the question begs to be asked - if push comes to shove, and war breaks on in the Falkland Islands, what is our posture? Turn the other cheek and show a blind eye and a deaf ear? Get involved (under the covers) by giving Argentina some aid? Or, respecting the long-term relationship we have had with the UK, and asking Milei to stand down.
It is interesting to see how the power shift has changed in the Euro Zone over the past few years. Who is ascending and who has become a "free rider" (or duffer) to NATO. Poland and Finland are rock solid and very strong right now. They have their eyes set on Russia and never blink. Sweden and Norway are also strong, but Finland is the cornerstone up by the arctic for NATO.
France is still ballsy in how they treat Russia. Are they strong enough to make a difference? Maybe. Italy is the country to watch out for. Giorgia Meloni wants to make Italy stronger - much stronger in the near future. The UK is weak and not getting much stronger. Sure, the UK (like France) has some nukes - but besides that, as the saying goes, the UK is all hat and no cowboy. A war with the Falkland Islands might leave the UK fighting this war all by themselves. Article 5 of the NATO charter might go unnoticed and ignored if fighting does break out. Why? For NATO, the Falkland Islands are nothing more than a distraction. The real threat remains to be Russia. And the war in Ukraine once again reminded Europe what a threat Russia can be.
What do I think the message would be from Trump to both the UK and Argentina? Make a deal. Have the military stand down. More war cannot and will not be tolerated. That is it. That is as far as I think our involvement in the Falkland Islands dispute will go. Trump sees bigger fish in the sea. Like the "Donroe Doctrine" which is starting to show signs of really working out well. Do we like Argentina? Right now, we love them. And what is there not to love?
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