Sunday, November 2, 2014

Come Wednesday morning...


"It sure seems like it has been a long, long time since the BPOU endorsing convention..."



Here I sit on a cold Sunday morning, wondering how many more clocks I need to reset. The deer hunters are getting geared up for the annual event, and most trees have finally lost their leaves. Halloween is over, and today's paper was replete with ad after ad for (ready for this) Christmas sales. But - before we get to Christmas, Thanksgiving, Deer Opener, or Veterans Day, we have one more big event to go through. Election Day.

However it turns out, the political landscape is going to look different on Wednesday morning. To the victors, their countless yard signs will have a big "Thank You" on them. For the vanquished, their yard signs will silently begin to disappear. There will be some heads hung low, and others will breathe a sigh of relief. One thing I do know for sure - with the exception of some expected run offs in some of states, Wednesday it will be over.

Here is what I think will Wednesday morning will bring:
  • The race for Governor will be much closer than predicted. If Jeff Johnson wins, the coattails of that victory might pull in Randy Gilbert, Doc Severson and Scott Newman. If Mark Dayton wins, he will not fill out his term. He is not a well man. A Dayton victory will mean the Constitutional offices will stay in DFL hands. When Dayton resigns due to health reasons, Tina Smith will become our new Governor.
  • Al Franken will be re-elected. The outcome will be much closer than the polls indicate. The main reason will not be anything negative about Mike McFadden - it will be the 100% name recognition of Franken. For the "low information crowd" in the metro area, name recognition is everything.
  • Tom Emmer will win the 6th in a landslide. Everyone seems to be in agreement with that prediction.
  • Stewart Mills will be the new Congressman from the 8th District. It will be very close. The deciding factor will be mining and jobs.
  • The Senate will change hands - barely. It will not be a Republican tsunami as some have thought. The Republicans will have a one or two seat majority.
  • Mitch McConnell will survive and be re-elected to his seat. He will then be voted in as the Senate Leader.
In any event, come Wednesday morning we shall see if these come true or not. My hope is that it would be a Republican tsunami, with victories stretching from the Senate, to the House, to our Governor, to the Minnesota House, to the Constitutional Offices. But I am trying to be realistic. I think Jeff Johnson would be 100 times the Governor that Dayton or Smith will be. I also know the Twin Cities get bluer every election cycle. Jeff will do well outstate, but the metro area will be tough for him.

On Wednesday morning, the sun will rise and life will go on. This is how our Republic works, warts and all. It won't be long until 2016 will become the topic of conversation.


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