The danger of a wounded bear

"How will this end? I have much trepidation. One small misstep, and this could end poorly for everyone. All the good things the world is trying to accomplish this decade will end immediately. A nuclear exchange, even a small one, will change everything, for everyone, forever. It is a simple as that."   

One of my younger friends, who had never been in the military, recently asked me how much danger we are in right now. I had to give an answer that person for sure would not understand, as it goes back to the 1960's. I responded, "This is the closest I think we have been to war with Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis." And that is the truth. Even though Putin has lots of bluster, and loves scaring the willies out of Biden and crew, the fact remains we are dealing with a wounded bear right now.

As much as Putin would like to give NATO a bloody nose right now, he does not have the chops to do so. That is, conventionally. His Navy (which is not much to write home about), has taken a beating from the Ukrainian drones and missiles, as they have sat off the coast of Crimea. Basically, Putin has subs, and not much else for a Navy. 

His Army has really taken a beating in the two plus years of being in a Ukrainian slugfest. For Putin to launch an offensive against Poland, Finland or Sweden would be a real stretch. Plus, it would bring to Europe into the beginnings of World War III. That leaves Putin with one tool in his toolbox which he thinks can give him leverage. His nukes.

Actually, the path to war with Russia is shorter than many might think. All Putin needs do is something foolish, like setting off a tactical nuke inside of Ukraine. The United States has told Putin if he should ever do that, the United States would attack Russian forces inside of Ukraine and neutralize them. When Medvedev (key player in Putin's inner circle) heard that response from the US, he was quick to sum things up. "If the United States joins Ukrainian forces in Ukraine, we will be at war with America." 

This is when Putin acts most like a wounded bear. If he can't beat Ukrainian forces, and the war becomes only about attrition, and if Putin can't beat NATO with his conventional forces, the wounded bear which lives inside of Putin has only one choice left. Activate his nuclear forces. 

Every month, the weapons that NATO is supplying to Ukraine become more precise and have a longer reach. Ukraine is now doing what they have yearned for since the start of this conflict - they can bring the war home to Russia. They can not only hit Russian targets in Ukraine, but they can also hit Russian targets in Russia. This is a very dangerous escalation. It makes Ukraine nothing more than a proxy war between NATO and Russia.

How will this end. I have much trepidation. One small misstep, and this could end poorly for everyone. All the good things the world is trying to accomplish this decade will end immediately. A nuclear exchange, even a small one, will change everything, for everyone, forever. It is a simple as that.