The Futurist

I was very fortunate to have graduated with an undergrad degree from what is now known as the Carlson School of Management in 1975. Having interviewed on campus with different companies my senior year, I was even more fortunate to have received three offers of employment upon graduation. Those offers came from Dayton Hudson (now Target), First Bank System (now US Bank) and a company I knew very little about, Sperry Univac (now Lockheed Martin).

I did remember working with some equipment from Sperry Univac when I was in the Navy. That is really all I knew about what they did. However, the opening offer was slightly higher than the other two, so I accepted and began my professional working life on December 22, 1975. Little did I know that choice would have such a profound effect on the rest of my working career.

Shortly after I started, I was invited to a "all hands" presentation by the company "futurist". I was intrigued - I had no idea what a futurist was. This man had a PhD and his job was to study current trends as to predict the future as it related the the product mix the company developed. A futurist was the type of job I thought one would never get tired or bored with.

In early 1976, the only computers we had to deal with were the large main frames that did all the batch processing. The more common languages in that day were ALGOL FORTRAN and COBOL, that were known and loved but to few, and those few worked downstairs in the very mysterious computer room. In other words, most of us knew computers existed, there were some very nerdy people who took care of them, and we got to use the byproduct of what they produced. Case closed.

Back to the meeting with the Futurist. You could have heard a pin drop in the auditorium when he started out by saying before most of us were done with our careers, we would each be using a small computer on our desk. In addition, at the end of the day when we went home, much of what we did there would be governed by our home computer. Yes, most, if not all of us would have a home computer. A computer capable of not only taking care of our family budget, but also one which could help maximize the efficiency of the home's utilities and schedule family activities. In other words, it would change the way we lived our lives.

I have thought about that man many times over the years and how prophetic he was. Towards the end of my career, a laptop computer was standard issue with my job so I could not only use it at work, but also on travel as well as at home. I could assess the company mainframe to input as well as retrieve data. At home, the family PC contained all family pictures, favorite music, financials and games. It was as popular to use as the TV - actually, you could watch TV from the desktop computer. In short, it did everything the futurist said it could do and then some.

Flash forward to today, thirty-six years after the futurist made his bold forecasts. Many homes not only have at least one PC, but also a tablet and smart phone as well. Each of these has amazing computing power. The displays on each device are crystal clear, so much so they will never be improved. Why? When I was at IBM I attended a technology conference where it was disclosed that the clarity of displays could be improved more, but it would not do any good. The technology was at the end of the rainbow - the human eye could not discern any more clarity in displays so why bother to sink cost into improving them.

Look at today's smart phones for a minute. The fact they are called phones is by itself laughable. Being used as a phone is only one of a myriad of tasks these little computers can do. Most smart phones are a phone, MP3 player, game boy, GPS unit, camera, camcorder, dictation device, social media device, e-mail device, web browser, Internet TV viewer, and much more. All this in a device which is smaller than a pack of cigarettes that fits in your shirt pocket. With tens of thousand of new apps coming on the scene annually, what has the smart phone done? Changed everything, and more is yet to come.

I often wonder what today's futurist would vision for the next decade or two. I can't imagine things getting much smaller or more powerful. In 1965, Intel's co-founder, Gordon Moore developed Moore's Law which states the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. At times this two year period became eighteen months. However, many experts think we are getting to the point now by the end of 2013, the number could stretch to three years. As with displays, we might be getting to the end of the rainbow with Moore's Law.

What does the future hold? Wonderful things to make our lives easier and more enjoyable. However some sociologists and psychologists are concerned we are drawing inwards with our technology and interacting with others less. Watching a group of young people at a bar or out to eat, one might tend to agree. Everyone has phone in hand, checking messages, Facebook, or whatever.

Consequently, a futurist today might not look at the world with such rose colored glasses as in 1975. Our technology is to be used as tools, not just as toys. If we cannot use or control our wonderful technology the right way, it will turn out to be a Trojan horse rather than a gift horse.