Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Occam's razor


 


"Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated"

Confucius

 

Oh my, do I love Occam's Razor. It is a great way to look at problems, no matter how complex. Years ago I worked with a man who always brought up Occam's Razor whenever we were confronted with a problem, no matter the size. However, before I go much further, I should explain exactly what Occam's Razor is.

Merriam Webster defines Occam's Razor as follows: "a scientific and philosophic rule that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily which is interpreted as requiring that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities." Putting it in a much more simple way - take the path of least resistance. It does not work all the time, but in my experience, it works most of the time. 

So who was Occam? Simply put, he did not exist. The name is a derivation of William of Ockham, who lived from 1285 to 1349. He was a well known philosopher who first developed the razor theory. Razor refers to distinguishing between two theories by "shaving away" certain redundant or unnecessary assumptions or bifurcating two similar theories. Some have referred to this as the law of parsimony (a great Navy term) or succinctness.

So what? What dos this ancient law have to do with the price of tea in China? It is this - many of our problems today would less problematic if we took a more simple approach. For example, look at our tax system. We have taken what should have been a very simple system and turned it into a complex mess with so many twists and turns, most tax experts don't fully understand it. The razor approach would have been much easier. Line 1 - how much did you make; Line 2 - multiply by 10%; Line 3 - send that amount to the government. Also, taxes would have been a "pay as you go". No withholding. At the end of every month, you pay your taxes for that month. That way you know exactly how much you paid in taxes.

How about our national debt? That has turned out to be mess of the highest magnitude. We have managed to stack up IOU's to such an extent it has become unfathomable. And yet we keep spending - and spending - and spending. The razor approach again is so simple it is almost silly. Like most families, "x" number of dollars comes in every year, and "y" is spent. If "x" is more than "y", the extra money is saved. If "y" is more than "x", a loan would have been needed with absolute repayment terms. However, most responsible families end up with the amounts of "x" and "y" very close.

There are many more, but I want to do the grand daddy of them all for my final example - Obamacare. The resulting law is the polar opposite of what Occam's Law teaches. What an unholy, complicated mess this has turned out to be, and it is not done yet. Besides over 2,600 pages of gobblety gook in the bill, there are still hundreds of regulations left to be written. Smart people have poured over this thing for months and still cannot figure it out. The insult to injury on this law is a major cost driver was not even addressed - tort reform. Yes, this offspring of politics and inefficiency will be with us for some years. Growing, confusing, rationing, and spending. A monster so big, Occam's Law did not stand a chance.

Those in the business world have many times heard the modern day version of the razor. KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid. Don't you wish we could tattoo that on every forehead in Washington, D.C.? Now that would be the easy approach.



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