"Winter Solstice. Enjoy this break in the action. We will have Christmas, New Year's and then start the long cold month of January. But that is when things will start to heat up (politically). If you thought the White House moved at warp speed in 2025, just wait until 2026."
Around ten o'clock this morning, when many are still in church, the Earth will hit a speed bump. Winter Solstice will happen. Not with a bang, but with a whimper. Now, for the next two weeks or so, the days will stop getting shorter. Then, on January 6th, the days will slowly, very slowly, start getting longer. Slowly at first, and then faster. Soon, the first signs of spring will appear. And we will be knee deep in the second year of the second term of Donald Trump.
As many of us know, President Trump is a pragmatist. A realist. He knows the odds are stacked against him in keeping the House and/or Senate after the midterms. I am sure his Chief of Staff knows this also. That being said, Trump and team are going to fight like crazy to be an outlier to history. To be one of those rare administrations who can stay in control after midterms. And how do I think he is going to do that? Back to phenology for a minute.
By the time we are at Summer Solstice in June, the politicking for the midterms will be in full swing. It is of the highest importance that come June, the economy will need no explanation like it needs right now. People need to feel it. In everything they do, they need to feel better off. Gas prices at their highest need to be $2.50. Why not $2.00? I heard an energy expert saying that when oil gets too cheap, some of the marginal wells stop producing. Not worth it. Less oil, the price comes back up towards $2.50/gal. My opinion? I can live well with $2.50/gal gasoline.
But here is the rat in the woodpile for Trump. Insurance. Home insurance is going through the roof (so to speak) in certain parts of the country. Better solutions are needed quickly. But the real stinker is health insurance. Trump and the Republicans had better have a fix for the failed Obamacare insurance and do it quick. Why? Even though Trump and any other Republican had NOTHING to do with Obamacare, they are stuck owning it now. If we don't come up with a better solution and do it very, very soon - Obamacare will be Trump's Waterloo.
Other than insurance, the metrics on the economy should continue to look good. Tariffs will continue to be adjusted to keep the cost of food coming down. The economy will continue to evolve as jobs come back onshore, and other jobs go away due to AI and robotics. GDP should be strong, and the stock market should continue to be in the stratosphere. But all that will be for naught if the fix for this insurance thing remains at large.
Winter Solstice. Enjoy this break in the action. We will have Christmas, New Year's and then start the long cold month of January. But that is when things will start to heat up (politically). If you thought the White House moved at warp speed in 2025, just wait until 2026. Why? If history repeats, 2026 might be the last year where Trump can get stuff done in an unfettered manner. Sit down, hold on, and get ready for a much higher warp speed than we had this year.
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