Monday, December 9, 2024

When the Bear comes a calling...






"Bottom line? NATO needs to fix and fund itself. Trump will have his hands full just fixing the mess that Biden has left him at the Pentagon. It is great the world has a new sheriff in town - we just need to make sure he has enough bullets in his guns." 



Donald Trump is at it again. Chiding NATO for not paying their agreed to dues. Dues? What dues? The agreed to (at a minimum), 2% of GDP on military expenditures. Some in NATO (like Poland), are way, way over the 2% threshold. Others, like Canada, are woefully short. Why is this important? Just look at Russia right now. Pounding the country of Ukraine into dust. And because Russia is running short on troops, the call for help went out to North Korea. Now we have NORKs fighting in Ukraine. Soon to be many more.

Ukraine would give their eyeteeth to be in NATO right now. It would sure be a different war. Maybe a world war. But they are not. Some of the other countries in NATO have stood up and taken notice. This could also happen to them. Having a strong deterrence is step one in keeping the big bad bear away. But the US (aka "Uncle Sugar") is not in the mood to fund the underfunded countries in the alliance. Not with Donald Trump as president. In fact, Trump is once again saying "pay up, or we might leave NATO". A bluff? I don't think so.

Sweden just joined NATO. They are under the 2% mandate. Finland who also recently joined - is fine. They are over the 2%. Until Russia gets a new government, who really wants to be on the side of civilization, we need to keep one eye on the bear each and every day. Would Putin like to go into Poland? In a heartbeat. He hates Poland, and Poland knows it. But they are ready for Russia - and will be more ready each and every day. Germany is the same way. France, not as much. They are just under the 2% requirement.

Many news feeds have reported on this. Recent intercepts from the CCP have revealed that China will be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. That is right around the corner. Putin knows if and when that happens, the US will be all tied up in knots in the western Pacific. What a perfect time to make a play on NATO. With the reduction in our military thanks to Obama and Biden, there is no way the US can fight two wars at the same time. And Trump will not have enough time, even with a friendly Congress, to make up our military deficit by 2027. 

Why is the 2% so critical today? Because if push comes to shove with China, the Euro nations will need to stand in the gap ahead of Russia. That is just reality. But here is more reality. Keeping the nuclear genie in its bottle might be next to impossible should war break out between Russia and NATO. And if the nukes start flying around, it will be game over - for everybody. Putin may think a nuclear exchange is winnable for Russia, but it is not. 

Bottom line? NATO needs to fix and fund itself. Trump will have his hands full just fixing the mess that Biden has left him at the Pentagon. It is great the world has a new sheriff in town - we just need to make sure he has enough bullets in his guns. 


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