Again, war or peace in Persia?

"But then comes that nagging question once again. What about the day after? Who is going to be in charge of Iran? Certainly not us. Will it be Reza Pahlavi? The eldest son of the late Shah?" 

Ancient Persia, now known as Iran, is once again in the spotlight. I would have thought that after the Midnight Hammer pounding that Israel and the US gave to Iran, they would have put their tails between their legs and headed for the hills. But no - not this crowd. As hundreds of thousands of their citizens have taken to the streets to demand a change in government, the Revolutionary Guard, along with some paid Arab mercenaries, have decided to make many of the protesters into target practice. President Trump warned them not to do it, but since when do the Mullahs ever listen to us?

With the number of Iranians killed in the streets (by their own government) estimated now to be in the tens of thousands, it might be time for Iran to pay the piper (so to speak). With an "armada" (Trump's term) of US ships (including the USS Lincoln) off the coast of Iran, some help from Great Britian, and probable help from Israel, the writing might be on the wall. Have targets in Iran been identified? Count on it. My feeling is this will be more than just a pin prick event. It will decimate the Revolutionary Guard and extinguish the Mullahs.

But then comes that nagging question once again. What about the day after? Who is going to be in charge of Iran? Certainly not us. Will it be Reza Pahlavi? The eldest son of the late Shah? Does anybody in the Shah's family have the backing of the people right now? If not the eldest son, there are also three daughters and one younger son. Or - move on from both the Mullahs as well as the Shah's family. As we can see from Venezuela, getting somebody who has the backing of the people AND is friendly to the US at the same time is a daunting job.

I think the surgical yet complete attack on Iran is a done deal. Why? Trump's credibility is on the line. The Iranian people remember clearly the last time they took to the streets when Obama was president. The help they got from us was nada. Zip. And many died or were tossed in prison. Trump does not want that legacy. He wants to be known as Iran's liberator. He wants Iran as an ally once again, just like when the Shah was in charge. 

Some might ask, how is it that the newly minted chairman of the Board of Peace is going to wage war on another country. Many remember that in Venezuela we did not lose a soul, but the Venezuelans and Cubans guarding Maduro were not so lucky. My view is this - sometimes to obtain peace, a bit of upfront war might be necessary. A peaceful Iran in the Middle East might be worth the risk of a limited war. Just like a more peaceful Caribbean might have been worth the risk we took in getting Maduro out of country.

Stay tuned on the Iran situation. What will happen will happen sooner rather than later. Why do I think that? We need the Lincoln back on station in the Indo-Pacific as a stopper to any move China might make in Taiwan. Oh, what a world we now live in...