Monday, March 11, 2013

I guess we are at war (again)...

 
 


"War, huh, yeah
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing"
 
War
 Edwin Starr


It is often been said it is harder to end a war than begin one. Wars can be started in many different ways. However, wars can only end in one of three ways: 1) you conquer the other side 2) the other side surrenders or 3) the two sides sign a cease fire or armistice agreement.  Today, Pyongyang announced they are going to nullify the 1953 armistice agreement which brought the Korean conflict to an end. I guess that means we are back to war in the Korean peninsula.

The Korean War was a three year, vicious and bloody event. Barely after World War II ended, the Korean War started in 1950 and lasted until the cease fire in 1953. The body count was high - even though there is disagreement as to the actual number killed, the most conservative number is about  2.5M. Of this number, about 1.3M were North Koreans, 600K were South Koreans, 500K Chinese, 33K United States forces and the rest various countries that supplied troops to the United Nations. Other estimates put the total dead much higher. One estimate states the total number of killed for both military and civilian was almost 10 million - about the same as World War I.

So why would you ask, after suffering through a brutal three year war, would anyone want to abrogate the one thing which stopped the war? First off, the new (and very young) leader of North Korea is really feeling his oats. His military has almost 1M active forces, with 7M in reserve. That is a huge army for a small country. In addition, because the world allowed it to happen, the North Koreans have developed nukes. It is now estimated they have as many as 10 workable nuclear bombs or warheads. By contrast, South Koreans have about 500K in active forces backed by 30K of United States troops. The South Koreans also have state of the art ground fighting equipment supplied by the United States. The North Koreans have as good as they can buy on the open market with what little money they have.

Ever since 1953, the tale of the two Koreas have been like the book Rich Man, Poor Man. South Korea has been rebuilt (with the help of the United States) and now has a world class economy. North Korea has had very little rebuilding and has suffered under three generations of dictators who starve their people to feed the military. The satellite pictures from space tells the tale better than anything else. At night, the South is lit up like a Christmas tree, and the North has just a few lights showing. The North continues to bluster, detonate underground bombs, and attempt to develop a viable launch platform accurate enough to deliver a nuke across the Pacific. For that behavior, the United Nations, at the prodding of the United States, has leveled crippling sanctions against North Korea. Similar to the Iranians, the North Koreans let the sanctions hurt their people, while the bomb makers and military keep on working. 

An irony of the Korean War was it happened so soon after the United Nations charter was signed. The United Nations charter, which was signed and became effective in 1945, states the following in Section 1 of the purpose:

"To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace"

I guess if the North Koreans come storming across the 38th parallel again, we might have to skip the help of the feckless United Nations, and get back to the first way to end a conflict - conquest. The people of North Korea deserve better than what they have right now. What will life be like for the North Koreans if they become part of South Korea? All they need do is ask the East Germans how their lives have changed since becoming a part of the reunited Germany.

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