Saturday, October 3, 2015

Way out of balance...







"This economy is not only weak, but what little strength it has is way out of balance. We are heading in the wrong direction, and fast..."



This morning really said it all. We went out for breakfast and then stopped at a grocery store on the way home. Both places had help wanted signs. Yesterday, just about every place we stopped had a help wanted sign. It seems like in just a few short years we have gone from no jobs anyplace to jobs everywhere.

Now that is the "good" news. Now for the real news. This morning it was reported many restaurants in the Twin Cities have needed to cut down their hours. Why? Not enough cooks. A culinary chef is a high skilled position. We simply do not have enough right now. 

And the jobs report came out yesterday. A paltry 142,000 jobs were created last month. On top of that, average pay raises were kept at zero. Plus, more and more people have left the labor force. In fact, the labor participation rate is now 62.4%. That is .2% lower than it was last month. And last month was terrible.

But the real problem we have right now besides an anemic economy, is balance. We have an overabundance of low educated, low skill workers, and a shortage of the higher skilled, high tech workers. Plus with the generous benefits we are currently paying on just about everything, many on the bottom see little value to taking a job that pays $8 to $15/hour. Just like in some Euro countries, being unemployed is not a bad gig.

What do we need to get back in balance? First off, fix our immigration system. We need to attract people who can come here and immediately contribute in the higher ended jobs. People who have low skills or no skills need to go elsewhere. Next, we need to educate our young people better. Many cities (like Minneapolis) have broken education systems. We continue to let young people fail and drop out in almost record numbers. Those who do graduate don't know a dit from a dah. In these days of Google and the internet, there is simply no excuse for graduates to not know simple facts. 

Finally (close your ears those on the Left), we need to repeal ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, and any other piece of legislation which has crippled our businesses with thousands upon thousands of pages of needless and expensive paperwork. The role of government has never been to create jobs - it has been to till the field to make job growth the most attractive for the job creators. Low taxes and low regulations. Right now, both our federal and state governments have poured poison on the fields of job growth by using confiscatory taxes and burdensome regulations.

One more thing. And this is a tough one. We need to fix our welfare and benefits so they are no longer more attractive than work. That will drive more lower skilled people into the lower skilled jobs. 

Bottom line - we are in a mess right now. Because of our jobs numbers, the Fed will never allow our rates to return to normal. The longer they linger in this zero based la-la land, the harder the fall will be when they do return to normal. In 2016, if we can make it that long, we need the adults back in charge to try and right this ship. Or, to put balance back into our economy.  

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