"Some corporations have invested huge dollars in this developing technology. It is coming, and coming faster than most realize."
Yesterday, I penned an article about the unbelievable traffic on I-40 between Little Rock and Memphis. One reader of that article responded by reminding me of all the goods that Americans use and need every day, that come via truck traffic. To that I respond, you are so very right sir! Back in business school I took an elective on transportation. It was fascinating as well as educational. I did not expect to learn as much about trucking as I did. Trucking really is the backbone of the country.
The reader did point out one more thing - forget the driver-less trucks. Sorry - this juggernaut is ready to roll. The technology is just about there, and cost of truck transportation need to be reduced. What does that mean? Currently, we are short tens of thousands of licensed OTR truckers. By 2020, that number is expected to grow to 100,000. And the current force is "graying". The average age is 49.
Will drivers freak out the first time they see a driver-less truck on the highway? I know I will - until I get use to them. But we are getting ready to cross the Rubicon. There were three concept "people movers" at the super bowl yesterday. All driver-less. Fifty year from now, it will be rare to see people driving anything. We will have driver-less cars, buses and trucks. We will have ships at sea which are automated. Our planes will be pilot-less. That includes jet fights in combat. Yes, the world fifty years from now will look NOTHING like what we have now.
By the way, most OTR truckers are very good. But the job does take its toll. A friend of mine who is a trucker said the current cadre of truckers are not as good as truckers from yesterday. I think we are trying to do too much with too few drivers. Fatigue often times wins the day. When we were down in Nebraska to see the eclipse last summer, there was a terrible accident on I-80. A trucker did not see a car stopped ahead due to congestion. That huge rig hit the back of a small car and killed three college girls.
And trains. Amtrak, the train we all love to hate, has had three accidents in the past 50 days. The fatal train wreck from this past weekend was due to the train being on the wrong track. Maybe automation can saved this failed government program.
Get ready folks. A few driver-less vehicles are now being fielded in the SF Bay area. Some corporations have invested huge dollars in this developing technology. It is coming, and coming faster than most realize. What do I think about it? It would sure be better coming down to Florida, going 80 mph, sitting back and playing computer games. And the driving? Let HAL do it.
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ReplyDeleteShipping a full truckload from L.A. to New York costs around $4,500 today, with labor representing 75% of that cost.
ReplyDeleteBut those labor savings aren’t the only gains to be had from the adoption of driverless trucks.
Where drivers are restricted by law from driving more than 11 hours per day without taking an 8 hour break, a driverless truck can drive nearly 24 hours per day.
That means the technology would effectively double the output of the U.S. transportation network at 25% of the cost.
While the efficiency gains are real—too real to pass up—the technology will have tremendous adverse effects as well.
There are currently over 1.6 million Americans working as truck drivers, making it the most common job in 29 states.
45's regulators will be understandably reluctant to allow technology that has the potential eliminate so many jobs.
Yet the benefits from adopting it will be so huge that we can’t simply outlaw it.
A 400% price-performance improvement in ground transportation networks will represent an incredible boost to human well-being. Where would we be if we had banned mechanized agriculture on the grounds that most Americans worked in farming when tractors and harvesters were introduced in the early 20th century?
ps And for Jerry, We won't have to switch to electric trucks to achieve the savings!
The Correction is Here! And the timing of the unnecessary Tax Reform Bill is to blame!
ReplyDeleteThe Correction arrived amid growing concern that an economy juiced by a massive corporate tax cut, and already at full employment, could overheat and require forceful action from a new and untested Federal Reserve chairman — installed by 45 — to cool things down.
On top of concerns about rising inflation, the tax cuts are already increasing the federal government’s need to borrow and accelerating the date by which Congress must raise the federal debt limit. And as of Monday, there was still no plan in Washington to raise the limit and avoid a catastrophic default.
If the recent jump in hourly wages gets pushed up even more by corporations handing out bonuses and pay bumps in the wake of the tax bill, the Fed may be forced to move faster to fight inflation — offsetting the economic benefits of the tax cuts.
Interest rates are already rising as the government discloses it will have to ramp up borrowing in 2018 to make up for revenue lost to the tax-cut bill. Borrowing? The GOP must be reeling!
Higher rates on government bonds make stocks look less appealing.
They also can make it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and spend, possibly slowing the economy.
This fixed income senior just tossed 15K into the crapper. With more to come! But at least I was predicting it.
I may have to wash out my big boy panties a little more often.
Thanks, 45! Hope your new guy has some skills. Yellin did, and you dumped her for political reasons!
A new study by Uber argues that millions of driver jobs will survive well into the future and that the spread of driverless trucks may actually stimulate the need for more — not fewer — drivers.
ReplyDeleteThe explanation lies in the plausible limits of driverless technologies. Here’s what the Uber study says: “The biggest technical hurdles for self-driving trucks are driving on tight and crowded city streets, backing into complex loading docks and navigating through busy facilities. … These maneuvers require skills that will be hard for self-driving trucks to match for a long time.”
Based on this view, Uber argues that the trucking industry will split into two parts. Long-haul transportation over major highways will be performed increasingly by driverless tractor-trailers that will deliver freight to “transfer hubs” on the edges of major cities. There, local workers and drivers will reload the cargoes and make delivery to final customers.
This system, Uber argues, will be more efficient for shippers and more attractive to drivers. The study assumes that “each self-driving truck could do the work of two of today’s trucks because they can operate at all hours of day and night.” Now, trucks spend only about a third of their time on the road. By doubling this, self-driving trucks would cut costs. That in turn would stimulate more shipping. Combined with normal growth, this would require more drivers, despite more driverless trucks.