Ill begotten gains

"Ill begotten gains. With the expense of much national blood and treasure, Russia wins Ukraine. And then what? Was it worth it? With this invasion, Russia has awakened many sleeping giants. Including some isolationists in America."

How is the war in Ukraine going? It depends. If you are on the receiving end of Russian artillery, not well. The war has become a "slugfest" between "arty" on both sides. A war of attrition. The Ukraine Army is losing between 100 and 200 souls every day. The Russians? Hard to say, although their losses are now north of 30,000.

Just for the sake of discussion, let's suppose the Russians finally break the spirit, and drain the resources of the Ukrainian Army. They win the war, and take Ukraine as their own. What do they win? For starters, a country which has been half destroyed. The conquered citizens will HATE the conquerors. Major cities such as Mariupol, lay in ruins. And who is going to pay to have these cities rebuilt? Russia? If they win the war, the sanctions would last forever and a day.

The Hauge is going to be very busy at the end of this war. Human rights commissions in both  Ukraine and outside of Ukraine have been very busy documenting war crimes against both Russia as a country, and Russian individuals. What does that really mean? Can Russia or Russian soldiers be made to stand trial? To face justice? Unknown. But one thing is for sure. Russia has managed to brand itself as the "new Nazis". They are the pariahs of Europe - maybe the world. Very few countries will want to deal with them. Those who have been accused of war crimes will be fearful of traveling outside of Russia. They could be caught and tried. What a life. 

NATO will have grown by two countries. The boundary between Russia and Finland is enormous. NATO will no longer need to be shamed by a US President to uphold its share of the organization - each country will willingly do it with no prompting. The lessons of Ukraine will last much longer than a generation or two. To counter Russia, every free country in NATO or not, will want to be prepared.

China might take pause in it ambitions for Taiwan. Does China want to be respected in the western Pacific and beyond? Or, does China want to make a move on Taiwan and be held in the same undesirable class that Russia is? The United States I feel, will be much more vigilant and involved should China make its move on Taiwan. South Korea, Japan and Australia might also be involved. China needs to know a large war in that part of the world will not do anyone any good.

Ill begotten gains. With the expense of much national blood and treasure, Russia wins Ukraine. And then what? Was it worth it? With this invasion, Russia has awakened many sleeping giants. Including some isolationists in America.

When the Russian people realize what Vladimir Putin has done to them, he will need to look over both shoulders - twice if not thrice. His remaining life on this planet will not be as it was before the invasion. His life once he leaves this planet, might be a whole lot worse.