Friday, May 11, 2018

The enemy of my enemy...






"Stay tuned folks. The world is changing fast. I am not a globalist for sure, but I also believe with the right kind of treaties and trade agreements, everyone comes out better. Wait! Is that not also what our President thinks? Yes, and it is awesome. You go Mr. President! Please keep on keeping on!"




Sometimes I need someone to pinch me to see if I am dreaming. Why? For a starter, friends becoming enemies - bad. Enemies becoming friends - very good. Now we all know that after a very bloody and protracted World War II, we are strong allies with Japan. Not quite as strong with Germany and Italy, but still allies.

Our former allie in World War II, Russia, and the United States are no longer exchanging Christmas Cards. And the once neutral county China, which helped us from in World War II, has now become somewhat of a love/hate partner and friend.

Okay - that is all strange, but it is nothing most of use did not already know. Now we are going to peer a bit deeper into the rabbit hole. On June 12th of this year, one of our biggest world problems, might end up becoming some kind of a partner with us. Yes, I am talking North Korea. Unless they are really trying play us for the fool, North Korea might be ready to sign an agreement with President Trump. An agreement in which they will change. Change how? Go from a nuclear threat, to a country who wants to play nice and get out of the dark ages. To keep its people from starving. Who knows? Five years from now, a unified Korea might be not only an trading partner, but also an allie.

But here is the biggest surprise. After going through a long and bloody war with North Viet Nam, Viet Nam is now our friend and trading partner. Huh? Those bunch of commies? Those "bunch of commies" have learned how to trade like capitalists. After Bill Clinton normalized relations with a reunified Viet Nam, as the years have passed, we have become closer and closer to our former enemy. And the relationship with China who served as the backbone to North View Nam during the war? It has gone from okay, to not okay, to bad, to almost at war.

That bad? As late as 2017, Viet Nam and China almost came to blows over some territorial issues concerning some islands in the South China Sea. Seriously, almost a shooting war. At the same time, the people of Viet Nam were polled on how they felt about the United States. 84% favorable! Almost the opposite of how the Vietnamese currently feel about China. Back in 1975, if someone had told me this would happen in my lifetime, I would have had that person drug tested.

What is the future for Viet Nam? First, they love our protection. Their mistrust of China goes very deep - it goes back centuries, regardless of how they helped during the Viet Nam War. Next, they are really starting to feel their economic muscle. They are big in the agri-business. Most of the frozen shrimp we buy comes from Viet Nam. Next up - electronics and manufacturing. They are a minor player right now, and would like to be more than just "minor".

What am I saying? The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Just like in World War II, China helped us (a bit) against Japan. Today, Japan is helping us against China, Russia and North Korea. We recently parked an aircraft carrier off the coast of Viet Nam. To threaten Viet Nam? No - to send a message to China. 

Stay tuned folks. The world is changing fast. I am not a globalist for sure, but I also believe with the right kind of treaties and trade agreements, everyone comes out better. Wait! Is that not also what our President thinks? Yes, and it is awesome. You go Mr. President! Please keep on keeping on!




1 comment:

  1. I can't think of one treaty that DJT has signed and only one of his highly touted bilateral trade agreements.
    The May 2017 China-U.S. agreement was his first foray into this practice, which received far more press attention than it merited, and to date has borne little tangible fruit.
    You can read it here, just soft mush....
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5624f8dee4b021dd852d2267/t/59ef6068cd39c3bc4116c2e7/1508860008652/Newsweek+Oversold+US+CHina+Trade+Agreement.pdf
    I hope your excitement is borne out, but history shows otherwise.
    His expertise at one-off real estate deals does not translate well to global trade or treaties.
    Just sayin........

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