Washington whispers about our ammo supply

"Is the pause in the action really just a time to get an agreement hammered out with these recalcitrant Iranians? Or is it to catch our breath and stockpile more needed munitions. Or is it a little of both? Meanwhile, stay tuned to what is going on in the Middle East. The dynamics seem to change daily."

Imagine having a neighbor who loves to collect new and used guns. You go visit him, and he often takes you into his gun room. It is quite impressive. Just when you think he has it all, he tells you he has another pistol and a long gun on order. One day, you ask him if he would take you out shooting. If you could pick the gun of choice and then try it out. With an embarrassing silence, he stammers and then confesses - "I would love to, but I have very little ammo left. I can't get any more for a while, so now I have to be careful on how I use what I have left."

The Washington whispers are getting louder. We had enough missiles (especially the SM3 missiles for our VLS ships) to fight a certain type of warfare. What we did not have, were counter measures cheap enough, and prolific enough, to counter a constant stream of drones and missiles. If an order of battle for Iran was to overwhelm an invading Navy (like us) with cheap drones, it almost worked. We are not out of missiles as yet, but if rumors are true, to fight a different kind of war in the near future (like against China over Taiwan), things could look iffy.

Here is the dichotomy. We build some of the best and most sophisticated missiles in the world. Our bombs are no longer "dumb" - on the contrary, they have absolute guidance built into them. Now here is the other side of the coin. Money and time. Each missile or round costs money. Some, a lot of money. For example, some SM-3 interceptors cost almost $30M/each. Depending on the variant, some are cheaper, but all are expensive - quite a bit more expensive than the drone it takes out. And the time to build one of these missiles, is many times longer than the time it takes to use one. Ergo, some of our weapon lockers for these expensive missiles are starting to look like Mother Hubberd's Cupboard. Not empty, but far from full.

Even though the state of our weapon inventory is something most commanders keep close to their vests, enough leakage has happened in the press (and otherwise), to know there is a problem. POTUS has authorized a full speed ahead order with some of the nation's largest munitions manufacturers, but that still is not fast enough. Will this issue last forever? Of course not - but it is here now.

Is the pause in the action really just a time to get an agreement hammered out with these recalcitrant Iranians? Or is it to catch our breath and stockpile more needed munitions. Or is it a little of both? Meanwhile, stay tuned to what is going on in the Middle East. The dynamics seem to change daily.