The Warfighter - (take 2)

"This is so far outside of his wheelhouse, it is not even funny. And bottom line - it is not funny at all."

On Sunday evening a week ago, before the football game started, a grim faced President addressed the nation. He talked about the menace of the Islamic State, the attack in California, and how we are crushing them overseas. Lots of bombing runs, lots of drone strikes, and selected special forces exercises. One minor problem - nobody, except maybe sycophants, believed a word he was saying. 

Today, he must have received the buzz that his act was not playing well. So, he decided to visit the Pentagon. After meeting with his chiefs, he would again hold a news conference from the homeland of our warfighters. Surrounded by his national security staff as well as many in uniform, he again told the country that the war was going well and it would now go even better. Again a minor problem. Sources have leaked the purpose of the meeting was for the Commander-in-Chief to get on the same page as his troops. Why the Brits, the French, the Russians were having more success than us.

Here is the bottom line. I wish that Valerie Jarrett or somebody in his inner circle would tell the Commander-in-Chief those guys with all those funny looking scrambled egg designs on their hats know how to fight and win wars. They just need to be let go. Let them do their job. They are not trained to be PC - they are trained to kill people and break things. As as General Patton said, they also are not paid to have their people die on the field of battle. They are trained to make the enemy die on the field of battle.

The Commander-in Chief needs to make a decision. Does he want to fight the weather, or does he want to fight and defeat those who want to destroy this nation. I know, I know. He hates this crap. It was not in his script. By now, he should have been well on the way to forging our "One World Government". In Obama's mind, war sucks. He does not understand why it has to be. Well, Mr. President, join the crowd. Most of the rest of us think that war sucks also. And nobody thinks that more than your warfighters at the Pentagon. Because many have been there. But when war does come knocking at our door, we need to know how to face it and then defeat it. And quickly.

We need to defeat the Islamic State for once and for all. And not just in the Middle East, but worldwide. So, we need a Warfighter as our Commander-in-Chief. The Commander-in-Chief owns the direction of the military. Time to figure out which direction is "True North" Mr. President. The time is now. And if we don't do it now, the place will be here.

Powered up!

"The world is on the hook to lower the average temperature by 1 to 1.5 degrees C over the next few years. One good volcano should take care of that for us..."

Me thinks we are going to get an earful and a half in the upcoming months about our obligations due to the recent climate kumbaya session held in Paris. We are going to hear (again) how bad we are. How our driving habits, how we get our electricity, how we do just about everything, is causing the desertification of Timbuktu. AND, how we now have an obligation to financially compensate Timbuktu, as well as to fix our energy future.

A bit of reality first. Where are we today in our consumption of energy? Not much has changed over the past few years. As far as energy is concerned, we still get 25% from petroleum, 22% from coal, 22% from natural gas, about 9% from nuclear and 8% from renewable.

Looking at some of these energy sources more closely, this is what we find:

Petroleum - Despite the best efforts of our Administration, we have become a world leader in petroleum. And we have a lot of it. Current estimates are we have (at today's consumption) 7 years remaining of proven reserves. If we add in what we think is offshore, that number is increased by another 10 to 15 years. Horizontal drilling in the Bakken Field is also adding to that number. And when the day comes that we start to see the end of our proven reserves, we have a motherlode of oil sand and oil shale reserves. How much oil shale? Current estimates are over two trillion barrels worth. 

Coal - Our country was built on coal. It is abundant and it is cheap. And we still have quite a bit left unmined. How much? Based on our consumption patterns of 2013, we have over 260 years of a proven coal supplies left.

Natural Gas - Not nearly as much as coal remains. At current consumption, proven reserves would yield over 80 years remaining. And this number seems to rise every year.

Renewables - As good as this sounds, a large portion of the renewables come from a source we have used for years - hydroelectric. An event larger amount comes from biofuels. What remains is a few percentage points for everything else (wind, solar). 

So where do we go from here? For the first time in many a decade, we are in great shape as far as energy is concerned. And coal, which is our most abundant fuel source, it also the biggest villain. It is number one on the Administration's ten most wanted list. Never mind that 40% of our electricity comes from coal. And the five year forecast is for electrical demand (and production) to go up (slightly).

Here is the bottom line as I see it. Even though our President told the world at the start of the COP21 event the United States is the world's second largest polluter, each year we are getting better. We are getting cleaner. Our coal scrubbers are better. More electric plants are switching to natural gas. More trucks and buses are switching to natural gas. Our gasoline burning cars are much cleaner than 20 years ago. Airplanes are cleaner, trains are cleaner. Our houses are more energy efficient. And the story goes on and on.

I think 50 years from now, historians will look back on these days with bemusement. By that time we will probably have a new abundant fuel source and life will be grand. However, the climate will continue to change, and the causes for it will continue to be sought. The smart thinkers 50 years from now will have figured out why the climate continues to change. Because that is what climates do. Always have, always will.   

Feeling safe yet?

"What is going sink us in this War on Terror is not so much what the terrorists can do to us - it is us not taking them seriously..."

Yesterday I posted a snippet of a hearing by a House subcommittee on Homeland Security. They had requested Jey Johnson attend and testify. Instead, he sent an undersecretary who did not know a dit from a dah. On every question asked (and they were very basic questions) they received a dodge back. Every question pertained to how we were going to vet allow thousands of refugees as they enter into this country. Either she did not know the answer or "she did not have those files with her." Her name? Burriesci. Remember that name. She works for you. And as an undersecretary, probably makes some pretty good jack. 

It has also been discovered by the FBI that Tashfeen Malik (as well as her husband) had been radicalized for quite some time. Like a long time. And in order to get into this country under a fiancee visa, she needed to be vetted. Now, how in the Sam Hill do two people get radicalized, learn how to build IEDs and pipe bombs, acquire enough munitions to outfit a small army, and escape detection? And how did this radicalized woman pass the vetting process? If she can make it through, how many more just like her can also do it?

We have a President and the front runner for the Democrats refusing to call this evil group by name? Why? They are afraid of "offending" the bad guys. Like they might get mad at us. Well they already hate us, and I don't think a day passes where plots are not hatched on how to hurt us real bad. We are so wrapped up in PC hell as well as our politics, the bad guys are probably having a field day right now. And as far as I am concerned, Paris and California were nothing more than wake up calls. It seems many of our leaders have drifted off the sleep as the years have passed since 9/11.

And this brings us to the why's and where's with today's Republican Presidential race. Why are Donald Trump's numbers so high? He is the Ying to the Yang. He is the anti to the pro (as in PC). Where the Administration fumbles and mumbles with their words on this topic, Trump speaks his mind, no matter how impolitic. He speaks what many think but are afraid to say.

And what Trump recently said was so vile, he was shunned by leaders in both parties. What he said has been done before in this country. By Jimmy Carter and FDR. Also, in the past this country has stopped all immigration for a period of time. Why? We had so many new immigrants, they needed to have a chance to assimilate into the country.

The biggest enemy we have in our War on Terror is --- us. For if we do not take them as serious as serious can be, bigger attacks are probably on the horizon. We can deal with this threat now in a very decisive way. Or, we can just continue to nibble at the margins and let our kids and grandkids deal with it.

A waste of hot air

"Many on the Left look at climate change skeptics as 'flat earthers'. In other words, dummies. Well, count me in. I am one of them."

Is nobody in the press going to say it. Is there not one person who will tell the emperor he is naked? Do we not have any truth tellers anymore? Fine. Then I will say it. After two weeks of "feel goodism", this tea party (COP15) in Paris has mercifully come to a conclusion. And what was concluded? Absolutely nothing.

Oh, we are going to do something alright. And it is going to cost money - lots of it. And where is the money going to come from? The richer nations will write checks to the poorer nations. In total, about $500B/year. One small problem - if there is a penny that exchanges hands, it will be voluntary. There is no enforcement mechanism built into the agreement.

Now the arm twisting will start. Our President has no arrows in his quiver beyond that. He can tell Congress that our good name rests on passing this deal. Zzzzzz. And then he will say if we do not honor it, we will have no global credibility. Zzzzz. He will go on national TV to beg voters to arm twist their representatives to pass this agreement. Zzzzz. Bottom line - this agreement is as dead as a doornail in this country. If other countries want to sign onto this, go for it.

What else could have 190 countries talked about for two weeks? Trade? Terrorism? A new world soccer league? ANYTHING! But no. They gathered together for the big heist. The extortion. Picking the pockets of Uncle Sam and other rich nations to equal out the playing field. Redistribution of wealth. One world government bullcrap. Need I say anymore?

Here is the truth. Every year, the United States cuts all kinds of pollution. Why? It is good business to do so. Pollution is bad for everyone - including the polluters. To have goals with penalties will cost real money - and lots of it. That money, plus any money promised to poorer nations will come from - us. The taxpayers.

So yes, I am a "flat earther". Until someone can show me empirical evidence that all climate change is manmade, I am a doubter. And excuse me for saying this, our Administration has been looking for a damn good reason to initiate "Cap and Trade". This looks like a doorway to me.

I don't give a tinker's damn what the rest of the world thinks of us. What the Pope thinks of us. The bottom line is this - we led the world in the industrial revolution. We made the world richer. In the digital age, we did it again. We will also (probably) be the nation to find the next new fuel source. The one which will eventually replace petro products. And when that happens, it will reveal all these dog and pony shows to be what they really are - just that. 

Not so fast times at Robin High...

"High school today in some districts look NOTHING like high school did fifty years ago..."

Sometimes I don't know if I was blessed or robbed by going to Robbinsdale High School in the mid sixties. After hearing about what high school is like today, it makes my (as well as my classmates) experiences sound a bit muted. After all, we got up in the morning, got dressed, ate breakfast, and either took the bus or drove to high school before the opening bell.

We went to school looking good. We had dress codes, but most students tried to exceed them, not breach them. Boys were boys and girls were girls. Often times, each were dressed "to the nines" while at school. We liked each other, we liked our teachers. And most importantly, we respected everyone. The thought of fighting a teacher was not in our universe. Most of us just wanted to learn, earn good grades and then graduate so we could go further in life.

There were no cops in schools, no metal detectors. If someone had accidentally brought a hunting rifle to school in the back of their pickup truck, they were just asked to take it home. Nobody got shot or stabbed in my high school. Even fist fights were very, very rare. Now I am not saying we were all perfect - we had our faults. But compared to today, our faults were mild.

So what happened in the past fifty years? Why is learning so risky and hard these days? In the days of the internet and Google, learning should be a snap. But it is not. And many don't even care about learning. Just this past week, two brothers beat a teacher in a city high school so severely, he now has a TBI (traumatic brain injury). The teacher might never be the same again. And what did he do to deserve such a beat down? He was trying to break up a fight.

Where do we go from here? How do we make high school the same safe environment that many of us "Boomers" had? How do we make learning fun again? How do we get to a place where it is okay to like and get along with everyone? To like and respect the teachers?

The PC'd superintendent of the St. Paul recently had a real hairbrain idea. Let's not discipline anyone, for anything. How has that been working one might ask? There is so much disorder going on in those schools right now, the teachers are threatening to walk off the job. They say working in the public schools in that district is no longer a safe working environment. 

In my view, the bottom line is this. Strong homes help make strong schools. It is hard to have strong homes when there is so much dysfunction in many of the poorer neighborhoods. The difference between today and yesterday is simple. Fifty years ago there were also poor neighborhoods. But many of the poor folks did not that define them. They wanted their kids to do well in school so they could live a better life. Today, many in the poorer neighborhoods could give a care. And that makes life (and success) in some schools very hard for everyone.

So what was life like at Robbinsdale High School in 1967? Not perfect for sure. But very, very close to it.

   

Climate busters...

"The picture here is of an active volcano in Nicaragua. It is one of only a handful of active volcanoes in the ring of fire..."

As much as I would like to buy into this notion that humans are responsible for climate change, I am not quite there as yet. Looking back at the history of our planet, climate is always changing. And that is a good thing. For if it was not, I would be penning this article under a mile of ice.

So what or who are the biggest polluters or causes of climate change on the planet? Is it us? The Chinese? The good people of India? Who is it? Not a who or whom, but what. It is volcanos. Or the sun. Or El Nino. Or some other force of nature.

For example, in June of 1991, a little known volcano in the Philippine Islands erupted. It is named Mount Pinatubo. The explosion affected just about everything on the planet for over a year. How big was it? It ejected as many particulates into the atmosphere as the Krakatoa eruption did in 1883. And that is a bunch! 

In other words, it made what humans do seem puny. And then there is the sun. Nothing can warm up the planet more than the sun. And a solar flare with the right trajectory and horsepower can do great damage. The sun, volcanos, and whatever else in nature are responsible for major climate shifts. Ice ages, then warm ups, then ice ages, and now receding ice. The climate and the weather have been constantly changing over the eons.

Saying all that, I am going to disclose something surprising. I think it is time to make the next leap in technology. Some say we already have it, but powerful forces which rule the worldwide petroleum industry are keeping it squelched. My thought on that - urban legend. The person, the company, the country which comes up with a clean burning, unlimited source of energy will have fame and fortune for many decades to come. And I still think it is right around the corner. It will not wind, and will probably involve some solar. However, my guess the big shebang will involve hydrogen extracted from water. And it will be done at a "go to market" price, affordable to all.

Once we have cleaner and more abundant energy sources, we can go back to using oil for one of its intended purposes - a raw material used in various manufacturing processes. But guess what will also happen? The climate will continue to change. And we won't have the burning of fossil fuels to blame anymore. We will have to blame another alleged villain - maybe cow farts.

Today, the COP21 Conference comes to a close. Lots and lots of talk about climate and climate change. The one cause of climate change once again escaped the spotlight. In fact, I bet nobody talked about it. And that cause is Mother Nature. Our planet itself. Included with that is Sol. Our star which is the giver and sustainer of life of this planet. Nope - once again, I think nature skated on this one. 

News from COP 21

"The most important thing is to make people feel good that they are doing something. Other than that, it was just a chance to exchange some hot air..."

I know many out there have no idea what this title (COP21) is all about. And I don't blame them. What it does stand for is the "feel good" waste of time in Paris. Yes, it is the long awaited follow up to all the nonsense which came out of the Kyoto Conference in 1997. Not much of substance came out of that one and not much is going to come out of this one.

This two week conference, which caused a huge uptick in the world's carbon footprint just to get all these jet setters there, ends (thankfully) tomorrow. I have had a passing curiosity, so I have been keeping up on the news. In particular, I have been waiting for the punchline. And that should be delivered either today or tomorrow.

This conference is getting ready to lay the hammer on the guilty. Well, when I say guilty, I mean the successful. Those who have successful economies. According to the zealots who are running this conference, economies in our world are zero sum. If for example, the United States does better, than Tanzania must have done worse. And by doing worse, the conference is saying there are enormous costs that must be addressed. As economists say, paying for the externalities of production.

How much costs you might ask? Hundreds of billions every year going out to the year 2050. A staggering sum of over $6T! And where in the world is all that money going to come from? Well no doubt, our representatives will volunteer to use our unlimited cash reserves in Washington to pay for a bunch of it.

However, there is a hitch in the giddy up. Congress has already told the President, not one thin dime. Unlike the Iran nuke deal, this agreement will be impossible to bypass Congress on. How do I know? Congress holds the purse strings. They simply will not write the check.

So just like in Kyoto, the United States will once again be the party pooper. And to that I say, GOOD FOR US! The United States is already the most philanthropic nation in the world (by far). To ask for a ransom due to this fairy tale called "manmade global warming" is a non-starter. 

Tomorrow, as COP21 comes to an end, the rich, powerful and famous will get into their private jets and burn some more holes in the atmosphere getting home. We will be lectured over and over by our Lecturer-in-Chief on how bad Congress will be if they don't approve this deal. After all, what is another measly $6T on top of our already $19T debt?

It has been almost 20 years since the last conference. Hopefully it will be at least 20 more until the next one.