Moore's Law, not more law please!

 

 

 

"Push the Envelope" - to move beyond the limit of what has usually been done or was the accepted standard

As a hard core conservative, I bristle at more law(s). We have quite enough thank you. However, ever since I first worked in the computer industry, I have been fascinated by Moore's Law. For those not familiar with the law, it is really not a law - more like a theory. It is named after one of the co-founders of Intel, Gordon Moore. He predicted that the number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every two years. This would lead to amazing computing power as time went on. His theory has held true since inception. However, sometimes it doubles in eighteen months and experts are now predicting it will soon slow down to three years.

Moore's Law, which has been around since 1965, has had more lives than a cat. Every time it appears that we are reaching the "end of the rainbow", a new development or discovery is made in materials or manufacturing processes which allows the law to stay valid. One of the scientists I respect the most, Dr. Michio Kaku has recently addressed Moore's Law. He believes this time we are coming to the end of current technology with existing materials. We have taken silicone about as far as we can take it, and within ten years, Moore's Law will flatten out. According to Kaku, once we get to 5nm processes for chip production, silicon is finished. Any smaller and processors will just overheat.

Is there life beyond silicon? Now is where we once again cross the line from science fiction to science fact. What is coming down the road in computing is nothing short of amazing. For example, consider the following technologies:

•  Protein computers
•  DNA computers
•  Optical computers
•  Quantum computers
•  Molecular computers

I can't explain these new technologies as I barely understand them myself. However, there are enough people who think they are viable enough to pour R+D money into their development. Addressing these technologies, Dr. Kaku continues, “if I were to put money on the table I would say that in the next ten years as Moore’s Law slows down, we will tweak it.”

The other day my wife and I were out for lunch as witnessed another example of the fruits of Moore's Law. Two business men were sitting at a table next to ours discussing a deal with terms and diagrams. The entire deal was resident on one 7" tablet. Both men were using only that tool to put the entire deal together. I thought back on all the deals I worked on in the "old days". We used reams of paper, huge "mini" computers and lots of people. Now you can work a deal and eat a hamburger at the same time.

One additional data point on the results of Moore's Law that affects most all of us. Cell phones. This little device, smaller than a pack of smokes, can act as a computer, GPS device, MP3 music player, still camera, video camera, game boy and on and on. Oh, by the way - you can also make phone calls on it. The technology contained in this very small, very reliable device is astounding. And we are not done yet. The Watson Lab of IBM as well as other technology incubators are working feverishly on the next big thing. Soon, there will be new products which will make the jaw dropping iPhone 5  look like yesterday's newspaper.

The future looks bright if you are a techno geek. Smaller, more powerful, cheaper. Recently, I heard a futurist discuss what he thinks personal computers will look like five years down the road. He believes we are getting ready to cross the red line between machine and true artificial intelligence (A.I.). Again, science fiction might be changing into science fact.

We are living in a brave new world - a world that could be the answer to our dreams or the start of nightmares. We just need to make sure we are the Master and we can keep the Genie close to the bottle.