"2018 will be a very interesting year. How we get stuff done, while still keeping the lid on. I know many of us will be watching closely. I know I will. Will we prune the money tree? Or will we need to plant a few more?"
It has often been said he biggest difference between conservatives and progressives are the mythical money trees. Oh - did I say mythical? Well, they are in the eyes of the conservatives. But to the progressives, they are as real as real can get. Please notice I did not say Republicans and Democrats. The reason for that is simple. There are some squishy Republicans today who also believe in the money trees. And that is a big, big problem.
Because of the mirage of the money trees, each year, every year, we spend more than we have. More than we take in. Pffft - like who cares, right? I have actually talked to people on both sides of our political spectrum who blow this whole debt thing off. That it is just a charade, as it is money we owe ourselves. That we could, with the flick of a pen, get rid of $20+T in national debt and start over. Sorry - I am not in that camp.
The Holy Bible tells us that the fields are vast and the workers are few. If I could modify that verse it would be (for our country), the needs are many and the sources of funding are few. Why do I say that? According to the President, one of the first things he would like to attack after Congress comes back from yet another protracted break, is infrastructure. He would like to work with the Democrats in crafting a fix for our aging infrastructure. How much will that cost? About $1T. The Democrats are already asking where the money will come from. On the other hand, earlier this year the American Society of Civil Engineers was asked what the amount should be to update our infrastructure. Ready? $4.6 trillion.
If the amount is $1T or $4.6T, here is the bottom line - the money is not there. Plus - anyone who is paying attention knows our military is in tough shape after the scalping it took under Obama. How much do the experts at the Pentagon say it will cost to get our military back to where it should be to meet today's threats? Somewhere between $4T and $4.5T over the next 9 years.
Of course we still need to fund all our entitlement programs at the same time. For example, in 2017, about 62,000,000 people received nearly $1T in Social Security benefits. And the number of people receiving Social Security goes up every year. Then throw in Medicare, Medicaid, ObamaCare, and you end up with a huge festering wound in our budget.
So how do we prune our money tree? How do we keep the debt from going up like a Roman Candle? How can we pay for everything which needs to be done? What about our electrical grid? Is that not super critical to harden?
2018 will be a very interesting year. How we get stuff done, while still keeping the lid on. I know many of us will be watching closely. I know I will. Will we prune the money tree? Or will we need to plant a few more?
The New York Federal Reserve estimates the U.S. economy will have grown at an annual rate of nearly 4 percent in the fourth quarter.
ReplyDeleteThat would be after breaking 3 percent growth in the second and third quarters this year.
The 45 economy is booming.
And the New York Fed predicts the boom will continue, with growth above 3 percent in the first quarter of 2018.
The last time we had four consecutive quarters of growth above 3 percent was 13 years ago, in 2004-2005.
Will this growth allow us to catch up on infrastructure and military spending. Not likely.
If a bill passes for 1T of infrastructure, it will be the same as a CR budget, just enough to maintain the mess.
Hopefully, the military will get enough to enhance the Navy and Marines, and a robust drone program. Forget the Army and Air Force. They are obsolete in the new world order. And 45 has no trust in the intelligence agencies, so they don't need more.
Spending cuts to help pay for these can't come from enlightenment or payments on the recently increased debt, so a new Money Tree will have to be planted, albeit a small one.
Cyber warfare, enhanced grid, EMP protection, internet for all, real healthcare reform, space exploration, environmental protections, THE WALL. All are off the table.
You and your family should stay close to the fireplace and for my peeps, stay close to the space heater or open oven door for a few more days. The January thaw is coming.
Dave Gjerdingen
Dave, I like your review, here, but I am still worried about the fundamental math. Add the national debt (still climbing) to the "unfunded mandates" of Obamacare, Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, and every man, woman and child in the country is instantly on the hook for $400,000 that I'm pretty certain every man, woman and child simply does not have and may be unlikely to get in their lifetimes, especially if they need to eat on top of that. Some would say we could just raise taxes, and that is also mathematically possible, simply by raising the federal tax rate to 100% for the next 8 years and spending NOTHING on defense, Social Security, food, clothing or shelter.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, nibbling around the edges of the problem isn't going to help a bit. We need major "entitlement" reform almost immediately.
ReplyDeleteAdd enough people to identify and chase down the Medicare payments for fraudulent claims and we could pay for infrastructure. Same with Medicaid.
DeleteSS taxes should be paid with no income cap. Medicare and SS should be means tested (already are a little), and denied to high income households.
And again, that would extend the "life" of these Ponzi schemes by a few months or years at most. These programs are simply unsustainable in anything resembling their current form. Thinking otherwise is an unshakeable faith in the magical, mystical money tree.
DeleteSystemic processes such as SS, Medicare and Medicaid tend to reward people for making decisions that turn out to be right—creating great resentment among the anointed, who feel themselves entitled to rewards for being articulate, politically active, and morally fervent.
DeleteI am uncertain as to your point, here, but all I am doing is pointing out simple math facts. You cannot forever spend more than you take in, and you cannot take in more than (some sizable fraction of what) the economy produces, and the taxpayers will tolerate. Realistically speaking, a 100% federal tax rate is not going to solve the problem.
DeleteThen wouldn't it have been logical and fiscally responsible to reduce federal expenses PRIOR to the corporate give away, and match the gifts to the expense reductions.
DeleteWe gotta cut down that tree and salt the soil.
ReplyDelete