Monday, January 1, 2018

2025: The death of driver's training







"In any event, I am not going to wish my life away, but I am keeping my eyes on 2025. To see how our technologies and life styles change. That being said, 2018 is the year we are just now starting to discover. And that, I will."  


All eyes are on 2025. 2025? What happened to 2018? Like, I just woke up and am trying to wrap my head around the fact it is a new year! For some reason, the year 2025 is being looked at as a "bell weather" year for the futurists. And 2025 (now) is a scant 7 years away. But in those 7 years many futurists believe, we will see more changes than in the past 100 years.

How much of a change are we headed into? I encourage you (should you have the time or inclination) to read some of the tech blogs penned by futurists. Much of it is very fascinating. However, one of the more intriguing predictions I have read is this - in that short 7 years, between now and 2025, young people might not be required to take driver's training any longer. Really? 

Really. Some economists are projecting that by 2025, the global driver-less car market (on a global scale) will be $42B - or larger. I know - that sounds like chump change compared to the $1.7T the auto industry is worth right now. But the point is, once driver-less cars start to make a dent in the market, they are expected to grab more and more market share every year. 

Now the question some futurists are asking is this - will we still need driver's training if the world is headed pell mell into the age of driver-less vehicles? Not just driver-less cars, but trucks and buses also. Will we still need to train over the road truckers? Bus drivers? Is this revolution going to be one which matches the Henry Ford revolution of the Model T? I think yes, and yes again. 

My grandson is turning 3 this month. Under normal circumstances, he would start driver's training in 12 years. But will he? Good question. I think there is a better than even chance that he will not need to. Maybe it will still be offered as an elective - or not.

Are we ready for this driver-less revolution? Ask a Millennial. Many of them are big time Uber fans. Many don't have cars. Many don't need cars. And many don't want cars. With driver-less cars, maintenance, storage, and the expense thereof are no longer required. No muss, no fuss. Need a ride? Get on your smart phone and schedule one. Once the ride is over, the driver-less car goes bye-bye.

In any event, I am not going to wish my life away, but I am keeping my eyes on 2025. To see how our technologies and life styles change as we approach that year. That being said, 2018 is the year we are just now starting to discover. And that, I will.  

2 comments:

  1. I am interested in seeing which city will embrace this technology and actually welcome and fund necessary infrastructure changes to make it happen, Probably a southern city with geometric grid of wide streets, maybe Lubbock, Texas. Just turn 'em loose and see what happens.

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