Thursday, May 24, 2018

Say what???





"So, we will see how this plays out. Trump did leave an opening for Kim to take. Or - he can crawl back under that rock and let his people continue to starve and want. A good leader Kim, cares for his people. A despot, only cares for the oligarch. Remember that fact. Either become the most honorable Kim Jong-un, or go back to being the 'Rocket Man'."



Those who said it was too good to be true, were not just whistling Dixie. One of the world's biggest thugs, had his sister visit the Olympics in Seoul, get wooed by the western culture, and then report back to her brother. All of a sudden, Kim Jong-un wants to play nice instead of being a jackass. Only one problem - way, way too many moving parts right now. All those moving parts will make it tough for this to be a smooth U-turn. In fact, it became a panic stop instead.

Just like a drunk who well off the wagon, Kim and his minions could not resist going back to their old ways on the cusp of this historic summit. Logical minds wonder if he had taken a long walk off a short pier. Nobody in their right mind would have screwed up the deal of the century (or longer in North Korea's case) that Trump had laid out for Kim. A chance to go from the dark ages (literally), and move into the same playing arena as his southern brothers.

But a two letter word is suspected of getting in the way. A two lettered word? Yes, spelled Xi. He hates the idea of a unified Korea. A split Korea, with a bit of manageable friction between North and South, plays right into his hand. It ties up tons of resources and troops for the United States. That allows China to be more and more adventuresome in the South China Sea and beyond. If peace breaks out all over Korea, and the United States starts a Korean draw down, that means a much stronger Seventh Fleet footprint in China's new playground.

There is something else which I would not be surprised if mentioned to the North Koreans by Secretary Pompeo. Viet Nam. Look at Viet Nam's lifestyle today as compared to what it was before they decided to play nice with us. Trading partner, friend, travel destination, and (stand by for this one), maybe a future allie. Life in Viet Nam is good. Life in South Korea is better than very good. Life in North Korea sucks. Trump has offered to change that, and change it quickly.

One of the things I learned early in my life as a negotiator, was a iron clad rule of the game. Know where the cards are on the table. Trump has a very, very strong hand, and Kim is not even holding a pair of deuces. In other words, if Kim listens to Xi instead of Trump, he will be worse than an all day sucker. Xi will give him spit; Trump will give him the 21st century.

So, we will see how this plays out. Trump did leave an opening for Kim to take. Or - he can crawl back under that rock and let his people continue to starve and want. A good leader Kim, cares for his people. A despot, only cares for the oligarch. Remember that fact. Either become the most honorable Kim Jong-un, or go back to being the "Rocket Man".

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