"All I know is this. If the world can come out of this mess in Ukraine without a major spread of conflict, it will be a miracle. Our only hope is regime change in Russia - sooner rather than later."
Kaliningrad. A part of Russia which is set apart from the rest. How much of Russia's land mass is Kaliningrad? A wee bit. Not much at all. But Kaliningrad is mostly Eurocentric in its thinking, and its world view. But nevertheless, it is still Russia. And last February, Putin put some Iskander nuclear capable missiles in Kaliningrad. Why? To blunt what NATO was doing. That being said, this very small part of Russia, is more similar to its neighboring Poland, than it is Mother Russia. But now, due to the war in Ukraine which Putin started, innocent little Kaliningrad is getting pulled into this mess.
Let's pretend for a minute, that we had some very bad blood with Canada. So much so, that Canada told us we could no long fly in their airspace. Makes it tougher to get up to Alaska, which is part of our country. Then to make matters worse, Canada told us we can no longer use their roads or railways to ship certain products up to Alaska. That is kind of what is happening to Kaliningrad. It is being isolated by Lithuania, a member of NATO. Without the ability to deliver material to Kaliningrad through Lithuania, that leaves Poland as the only other option. And we all know how that would work out - NOT.
Bottom line? Kaliningrad is a little piece of Russia, adrift in a sea of NATO countries. Not a good situation for Russia. What options does that leave Putin? When tiny little Lithuania dictates terms to him on how he can get material to Kaliningrad? He threatens them (of course). But here is the reality check - Poland and Lithuania are members of NATO, standing firm behind the aegis of Article 5 of the charter. Unless Russia wants to expand Putin's war into Europe, there is not much he can do about the isolation of Kaliningrad.
The question which I have wrestled with is simply this - how many times can we poke this nuclear tipped bear, before Putin does something stupid? Heavier and better arms, albeit not enough, continue to pour into Ukraine.
The Russian Navy has taken a pounding in this war. I read the other day, the losses Russia has suffered, are the most tonnage lost since World War II. And the most amazing part of this statistic is this - the Ukrainians had yet to put one ship to sea during the conflict.
Some say Putin has opened a can of worms when he invaded Ukraine. Others say he popped open Pandora's Box. I think something similar, yet different. I think Putin is both the third and fourth horsemen of the Apocalypse. The third for famine, and the fourth, the pale rider, for death. The stage is set.
I don't mean for this to be political. But man or man, would this ever be a good time to have a strong President. Someone who could stare Putin down. Joe Biden is not the man who can do that. And that puts us closer to a slugfest with Russia. I miss having a Reagan type of diplomacy. Hello, Star Wars.
All I know is this. If the world can come out of this mess in Ukraine without a major spread of conflict, it will be a miracle. Our only hope is regime change in Russia - sooner rather than later.
This little piece of Russia might at least prove useful as a bargaining chip.
ReplyDelete