"The revolution in cars will be tied closely to the revolution in battery technology. Changes will be coming, and coming fast. Exciting times are on the horizon. People with prepared minds as this change happens, will do very well."
Years ago, when I worked at Ecolab, I was responsible for the procurement of all electronic devices for the company. One of the biggest items I bought was the wireless tablets the service techs to use when out on calls. Fujitsu Corporation from Japan made the tablets. They needed robust batteries to last all day with numerous stops and changeable weather.
Ecolab had quarterly reviews with Fujitsu. At one of our reviews, I brought up the battery issue. Why Fujitsu could not make a battery which was better than the one they were selling Ecolab. We got into a very good exchange of information (I knew a bit about batteries and capacitors from my time at FMC), but more information was needed. They agreed to fly Fujitsu's battery expert out of Tokyo to attend out next quarterly meeting. We agreed to carve out one entire day just for battery discussions.
As much as I thought I knew about batteries and where the technology was at that time was dwarfed by this gentleman from Japan. He took myself and the rest of the team to school. Fujitsu, like many technology companies, knew there are huge rewards for companies who can make the next leap in battery technology. Fujitsu at that time, was looking to get order(s) of magnitude better with their battery technology.
If you are looking for stocks to invest in, any company who makes batteries or capacitors might be the right place to park. The developing market for driver-less cars will take batteries - lots and lots of large and robust batteries. There will be a large market for batteries and capacitors to be used in houses which employ the new types of solar collectors. New batteries will be needed for cell phones, which can stay charged for a week or more, no matter how many apps are running at once.
It is funny. In the paper this morning, the long awaited admission by our government concerning the incredible amount of shale oil we have in this country was revealed. I have known about this for years, thanks to my best man who is in the oil business. The good news - we have hundreds of years of supply of this stuff. The bad news - the market for petrol products will start to as with the new battery powered cars coming to market.
Yesterday afternoon, I wrote about Bob Lutz. How he believes the next generation of cars (driver-less) is upon us, and the transition is already starting. There was no hesitation in his voice. No if, ands or buts. He was as sure of this new technology as the sun rising in the East tomorrow.
The revolution in cars will be tied closely to the revolution in battery technology. Changes will be coming, and coming fast. Exciting times are on the horizon. People with prepared minds as this change happens, will do very well.
Unless some genius finds a way to make electricity to CHARGE these batteries, we're going to burn a lot of coal, gas, and oil. And if we're doing it to hold down CO2 rather than that it is cheaper and more reliable, we're on a fool's errand.
ReplyDeleteI'm more interested in getting the new energy technologies up and running: in-situ coal gasification, lithium fusion, garbage direct to electricity AND natural gas, pebble bed coal burning, etc.
ReplyDeleteBack in 1990, I visited General Atomics on a robotics project. Once our program review was over and before we left for the airport, the division manager asked if we would like to "peek beneath the curtain". This was 27 years ago, and they were working on energy solutions which knocked my socks off. I think before Dave and I depart this world, we are going to see the next really big energy thing in "go to market" shape. And no offense Jerry, this will be far above coal gasification. This will be something akin to cold fusion or fuel cell. Or maybe even something beyond that...
DeleteAfter reading a few articles from Brookings and others, it seems we are on the verge of dozens of new battery technologies. But the comments above are serious concerns re:electricity generation.
ReplyDeleteEnergy creation and delivery will be interesting technologies for my kids and grandkids to experience in their lifetimes.
Coal is something we have in abundance. If we could gasify it we would have a useful, deliverable form of energy for centuries. And that new coal technology at Ohio State gets TWICE the energy from the same amount of coal. Likewise, garbage-direct-conversion is revolutionary and already in production. Lithium fusion is in the labs awaiting the practical engineering needed, while thorium "batteries" and thorium breeder reactors are already designed. It seems the biggest obstacle to all these technologies are radical environmentalists and global warming kooks, so that risk-averse capital won't bring them to market.
ReplyDeleteThe obstacles are not largely technical, but political. I find that offensive.
These "obstacles" have largely been removed by 45 appointees and his executive actions. Should see major projects advance. Only obstacle would be, do they make good business sense for the investors?
DeleteI wish I shared your optimism, as that is my wont. But simply announcing withdrawal from Paris hasn't ended the HUGE risk to investors of some sort of government-mandated CO2-abatement scheme that will cost billions and do NOTHING for the climate. Even those who have studied the opportunities for a new energy bonanza have decided there is nothing in which to invest in the current uncertainty.
DeleteThis administration and congress will not do anything about increased CO2 levels, as they credit it for increase in crop yields worldwide.
DeleteThe =previous= administration admitted that if we radically curb CO2, we reduce global temperatures, 100 years from now, by 1/100 of a degree! The computer models the UN uses say the same thing. The current administration is simply doing what common sense would dictate. CO2 is not the problem, so how can it be the solution? Again, if we want new energy technology because it is cheaper, more abundant and at least equally reliable, government mandates won't be needed. If it incidentally produces less CO2, the plants will starve, but the rest of us will be perfectly fine.
DeleteAnd the big push for batteries is to store unreliable energy like that produced from wind or solar. For cars, the obvious solutions are NOT all-electric, but hybrids. 20 years ago a fellow had an all-electric vehicle with a small gas turbine and aircraft generator to recharge the batteries. Range was limited only by fuel tank size, and it wasn't fussy about fuel. But of course it produced some CO2 (and quite a bit of noise) so nobody recognized it for the elegant solution it was. Likewise, GM had the "skateboard," a fuel cell frame, no batteries required.
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