Wednesday, March 13, 2024

What the what is going on??




"Will there ever be news so bad it will cause the market to tank? Maybe Biden getting re-elected. That is as bad as it gets." 


Yesterday, the market had a very good day. Want to know why? Me too. There was a time not too long ago, when there was some "disruption in the force", that the market would reflect that hiccup. Not any longer. What am I muttering about? Let's just look at yesterday from an economic and geopolitical standpoint.

Item One - Inflation is ticking back up again. Joe Biden wants us to do cartwheels that inflation is no longer 8%. But it is still over 3%. That means that goods we buy are 3% higher than last year. And soon, many goods will be 20% higher than when Biden took office. For most families, that is a back breaker. 

Item Two - With inflation ticking up again, the chances of the fed lowering rates are going out the window. In fact, if inflation goes up much higher, the fed might actually raise rates again. What does this mean? The price of a house is 20% higher than when Biden took office. That is maybe a good thing if you are selling. However, the mortgage rate is still over 6% rather than 2.5%. That is a bad thing if you are buying or selling. Bottom line? The housing market is slowing as more and more people cannot afford to move up into a more expensive home.

Item Three - Yesterday, was the long-awaited Special Council Herr hearing on Capitol Hill. The subject was Herr's Biden report. Too bad it was yesterday, as it shoved the other hearing off the air. And that hearing was very important. All the intelligence chiefs were testifying about the current threat level in our country. You know, because Uncle Joe destroyed our borders, and let everyone from all over - in. Bottom line? The threat level has never been higher, and it will be a miracle if some bad actors don't take advantage of our vulnerabilities. Thanks a lot Biden - this is all on you. 

Item Four - If our internal threat is not enough right now, Vladimir Putin thought it would be a good time (sensing Biden's weaknesses), to tell the US we are due for a nuclear war. I know, I know - Putin has done that before. But one day, it might not be a bluff. It might be the real thing. And then everything stops. Nothing else will matter. Life will not go on. But don't worry - Biden put a 1% increase in his 2025 budget to counteract the Russian threat. Big whoop. 

Now with all that (and there was more), why in the world would the market go up over 200 points yesterday? Back in the days when up was up and black was black (and not the opposite like it is today), bad news like this would have sent the investors scurrying for the bond market. Not today.

Will there ever be news so bad it will cause the market to tank? Maybe Biden getting re-elected. That will be as bad as it gets. 

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