"The random variable is us. If we are not motivated to get out and vote due to love for this great country, then the Democrats will win because their visceral hated for our President."
Here we go folks. This weekend, the state district conventions start, and during the first weekend of June, is the MN GOP state convention. It is now real time, go time. Right now, our gaze is on the home turf - the statewide elections. How important are they for this state? About as real as real can get. For if we muff this one, and have four to eight years of Tim Walz, Lori Swanson, Steve Simon and others - our trickle of wealth and seniors out of this state will become more of a flood.
But I am going to talk bigger picture. All eight Congressional seats in our state are up for election or re-election. Both Senate seats (a rare event) are up for election or re-election. President Trump is not. However - should the Republicans become typical Republicans, get lethargic, they could be down to one or two Congressional seats, and zero Senate seats.
Some might think, "Well, this is the midterms after all. History has shown the ruling party usually takes it in the shorts." Others might think everything is fixed, and we can't change it. The dreaded Blue Wave is not a myth, but a real tidal wave or tsunami. However, I am going to give a different take, based on what I heard on the news last night.
A nationally recognized poll pundit summed it up this way. If the election were held today, we would lose the House - and maybe the Senate. Why? The hatred the Left has for President Trump eclipses the love the Right has. It is as simple as that. If the Right had the same motivation they had in the 2016 election, they would add to their majorities. Heck, they might even have enough votes in the Senate to get stuff done for a change.
In November, should things not change, and we have near historic losses, it will not be because the Democrats have found the magic elixir for their message. It will not be because they have found candidates more attractive and charismatic than JFK. Nope. What will be the cause of it then? As was said in the rock opera Tommy - "Look in the mirror boy!"
That is the long and the short of it folks. What needs to be fixed on our side to win the midterms? Nothing. We can win if we want to. Our messaging is fine, our candidates solid. The random variable is us. If we are not motivated to get out and vote due to love for this great country, then the Democrats will win because their visceral hated for our President.
Yes, but Republicans generally do not think that government should have so much say in their lives that getting out to vote for other Republicans is a personal necessity. Even if we were to mount a campaign, fully justified based on the reality, to scare the bejeebers out of them, I am not sure enough of them would believe it to make a difference. I hope you have a suggestion!
ReplyDeleteThe base may not come back to vote as they are very satisfied with the tax cuts (extra money in their paychecks and a year away from filing reality); tough stance on brown people at the southern border trying to take away the stoop field labor and hotel staff jobs so many white folk aspire to; massive infrastructure bill (lot's of folks going to get asphalt jobs) and slamming the rest of the world with tariff threats (my farmer nephews in MN are excited) that will MAGA. Not to mention his newly found toughness on Russia. And they never did care about his personal peccadilloes.
DeleteI still predict their are more NEVER DIC's willing to vote in mid-terms than deplorables unsatisfied with the progress made on their agenda.
Will not change a thing to have a liberal congress. Still ineffectual and the American people will continue to suffer and pay the price.
The news that Paul Ryan is retiring from Congress was received by grim-faced members of the GOP caucus finally realizing what they’ve done, and what’s coming. Ryan pulled the ripcord today after a 19-year career in Congress, declaring he would leave Washington at the end of his current term to spend more time with his existential angst over what he let Donald Trump do to our country.
ReplyDeleteThe happy talk about holding the House is over. The spin for the press, the rubes, and the donor class just came to a shrieking halt. Nancy Pelosi is in her crone cavern, cackling with glee, knowing that the Democrats are now in play in almost 80 congressional seats. The general of the House Republican army just announced he’s leaving the field just as the tide of political war looks most grim.
Ryan and his caucus hoped to run on the tax cut, the economy, and infrastructure. All of these messages now will be swept aside. Ryan owns his share of the blame; too often, he behaved as if he was some deferential junior VP at a Trump resort and not the leader of the House of Representatives in a co-equal branch of government. The idea, popular among the House leadership, that a diet of ass-kissing and deference would make Trump into a normal president who didn’t need the political equivalent of Depends was always a strategic mistake.