"Europe is like kindling right now, and Putin is the match. It will not take much to have this regional war become non-regional. And then, it will be Katie bar the door."
Welcome to the war of attrition. A war in which billions of dollars of equipment and property is destroyed. A war in which over 100,000 Russians and probably just as many Ukrainians have died. As for what? A Russian land bridge? The start of remaking a new Soviet Union? Or just pride. In any event, this slugfest in Ukraine seems to be far from over. And what is up ahead? More of the same.
One cynic who wrote a column recently said Ukraine is nothing more than a proving ground for new weapons. Who is guilty of it? Everyone, direct participants or proxies. But hold on. Germany is starting to see some futility in sending more of its national treasure into the fray. Like their Leopard II tanks. Seems the Germans are somewhat reluctant to send one of the finest tanks made into this endless war. And even though the US has done most of the heavy lifting with weapons, Germany wants the US to send some M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
Why all of a sudden, is Ukraine so interested in world class tanks? I mean, the Brits are sending them some of their Challenger II tanks. Not enough. The scope of the spring invasion by the Russians is projected by some to be massive. A three ponged attack. Maybe even trying to overtake Kiev.
How much do the Russians want to end this war with a victory? After losing as many as 100k to 120K of its Army and thousands of armored vehicles, they are all in. Go for broke. Some think the missiles they have moved to the border of Belarus might be used for "dirty bombs". More importantly, the Wagner Group of mercenaries as well as the country of Belarus might become full blown participants in this war. Tip the scales so to speak.
Here is the long and short of it. If 2023 turns out to be as bloody in Ukraine as predicted, by the dawn of 2024, there will not be much left of Ukraine. It will be nothing but a burned out battleground. To the winner will go the spoils - literally. Putin seems to think that if he cannot have Ukraine, nobody can have it. Even if it glows from the aftermath of dirty or clean nuclear bombs.
The up side? Not much, except this. If NATO can hold together, Russia will have created something it was trying to eliminate - an enemy of its border. Even though we are having a minor dust up with Germany over the tank issue, and Finland and Turkey are still ironing out some differences, NATO is stronger than ever.
What Putin has feared and tried to stop, he has only made stronger. But even with a stronger NATO, the world is still in danger. Why? Europe is like kindling right now, and Putin is the match. It will not take much to have this regional war become non-regional. And then, it will be Katie bar the door.
No comments:
Post a Comment