Tuesday, January 23, 2024

A $2M solution for a $20K problem





"Anyhow - back to today. The VLS is a winner, and I would not trade it. That being said, we now live in a new world, loaded with cheap, throw away missiles and drones. We need a different solution to protect our ships, and we need it fast."


Okay. As a retired Navy guy, I am going to vent for just a bit. Like, what are we doing? I think it is good that we have a presence in the Red Sea protecting ours (and others) international shipping, but at what cost? Post Navy, I worked on the AEGIS and VLS weapon system for the Navy. A great system. Almost foolproof. But very costly. Whenever one of those mutts in Yemen fires a drone at a ship, we take it out with a SM2 missile from the VLS system. Good kill rate. Like I said very accurate. So, what is the problem?

Cost and supply - that is what the problem is. Each suicide drone cost about $20K and is paid for by Iran. Each SM2 missile needed to knock these drones out of the sky cost the US taxpayer about $2M. Plus, the supply chain of these cheapo drones seems to go on forever. The supply chain for our SM2 missiles is finite. When we start running short on missiles, then what?

When Ronald Reagan became president, our Navy was a mess. Reagan pledged to build our Navy up to a fleet of 600 ships - and he did. But ever since Reagan, our Navy has started to attrit. Every year, the number of ships we have - goes down. Currently, we are just under 300 ships - and many aging. If we stay tied up in the Red Sea, and then if China makes a play for Taiwan, we will be in trouble.

Here is an example of some of the strange planning the Navy has done as of late. Besides sinking billions into ships like the Zumwalt Destroyer and the Littoral Ship class (neither do not perform well), how they came up with the idea to build the Virginia class submarines is a head scratcher. How so?

To replace the Los Angles attack sub, the Navy came up with the finest sub EVER. It was the Seawolf. The Navy was going to build twenty-nine Seawolf submarines, until they saw the bill. Each Seawolf would cost $5B. Ouch! The Navy then cut the Seawolf class back to only three subs and looked for a different solution. Enter the Virginia class. Cheaper than the Seawolf ($2.5B each), but not nearly as good.

What would I have done? Since the Seawolf cost twice as much as the Virginia class yet was twice as good (almost like science fiction good), cut the Seawolf production from twenty-nine down to fifteen. Whereas the Seawolf was a quiet as a whisper, the Virginia is as quiet as a dry cough. I would have stuck with quality over quantity.

Anyhow - back to today. The VLS is a winner, and I would not trade it. That being said, we now live in a new world, loaded with cheap, throw away missiles and drones. We need a different solution to protect our ships, and we need it fast. We need more modern weapons (the AEGIS/VLS was built to fight the Soviets in the Cold War), and we need more ships. We need frigates, more destroyers and so forth. We are okay on carriers but need to speed up the production on the Ford class.

We need a strong and modern Navy. A strong Navy keeps us safe. We need more money for ships, for modernization of weapons, and better pay to attract better sailors. Right now, we can't attract nor retain enough quality people.

War is on the horizon folks. The Middle East is about to explode. No Joe Biden - climate change is not our biggest enemy. Wake up and smell the coffee sir. We need to get prepared for a wider war and do it fast!    

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