Next week - the big show starts!

"The Iowa Caucuses are only a few days away. So is the polar vortex. Looking at the positive side of being in Minnesota in January, this weekend we have a boatload of Wildcard playoff games. That will be followed up by the caucuses on Monday. For Minnesota, in January, that is about as good as it gets."   

Well, it is March. And it is 2024. That only means one thing. The "Hawkeye Caucus" is almost here. Like next Monday. And the timing is perfect. After this very mild (and almost non-existent) winter, the dreaded polar vortex is knocking on the doorstep. On Monday, the temps (with the wind factored in), should be under zero. But these are Iowans. They are tough, and they don't care. Unless there is an ice storm, they will be there. And they will vote.

Many refer to the Iowa Caucuses as the wild card of the primary season. Some who were favored to win in the past, had a nasty surprise after the votes were counted. Others, who had been plodding along on the campaign trail, had an unexpected surprise when they found out they had won. So, what does this mean if somebody wins the caucus on Monday? Not much. Or it could put a jet pack on their campaigning going into New Hampshire. 

The big suspense in this first real vote of the season, is to see how much damage, if any, has been done to Donald Trump by his legal troubles. Will he be "Teflon Don" and keep his 30-point lead over the rest of the pack? Or will he be wounded so deep by these legal troubles, that Haley or DeSantis can surge up to, or even catch Mr. Trump.

Here is what I think. I think Trump keeps his lead, but it shrinks. I see Nikki Haley gaining points. Ron Desantis will be a tossup. If he comes in a distant third, regardless of what he has said, that might be taps for this Navy veteran. Donor money will start to dry up, and he will limp into New Hampshire, and then maybe South Carolina. Or he will just call it quits and head back to Florida. On the other hand, if he does well in Iowa, this will be a three-way race.

Vivek and Christie will be gone. Again, regardless of what they have said, money talks. If there is no more donor money, the campaign trail can get cold and lonely. By February 1st, this could be a two-person race between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump. Or a three-way race if Ron does well in Iowa. And how certain is Trump that he will eventually dispatch Haley (and maybe Desantis) and be by himself? He is rumored to be interviewing Elise Stefanick and Lee Zeldin to run as his VP. Wait - what? Those are both New Yorkers. The thinking is rumored to be, to have a strong New Yorker on the ticket, could put a dent in the "blueness" of New York. Interesting rumor for sure. 

The Iowa Caucuses are only a few days away. So is the polar vortex. Looking at the positive side of being in Minnesota in January, this weekend we have a boatload of Wildcard playoff games. That will be followed up by the caucuses on Monday. For Minnesota, in January, that is about as good as it gets.