Saturday, February 13, 2021

Well, something seems to be working!





"Here are the facts. The number of infections, the number of fatalities, the number of hospitalizations, the number of ICU stays - all down." 


I am kind of a numbers guy. Truthfully - it often times drives my wife nuts. But this is the way I am. The way I always have been. With the onset of this most unwelcomed pandemic, I have been glued to the daily stats. Why? Both my wife and myself, as well as many of our friends, are in the target zone. My concern is that we get on top of this disease, rather than letting the disease get on top of us. And as of late, it appears we are starting to turn the tide.

So what does all this jibber jabber mean then Bird? It means, no matter which statistic you are looking at in Minnesota right now, the numbers are dropping. Like, really dropping. That is good news, right? Absolutely. And why are they dropping? That is the $64,000 question. To point to a singular cause invites all kinds of opinionated discussion.

Here are the facts. The number of infections, the number of fatalities, the number of hospitalizations, the number of ICU stays - all down. For a while, it looked like we were going to over stress our hospital resources, as well as our mortuaries. Our Governor even bought a tax payer funded morgue. But right now, we are in a better place (stats wise). Even though we are long from being out of the woods, keeping on this trajectory is a good thing.

Here are the possible reasons for this unexpected improvement in the Covid numbers:

  • Vaccinations - Even though we are lagging from where we should be, about 10% of our population have had at least one shot. With the vaccines being used, studies have shown that we should be realizing a 95% efficacy. It takes about two weeks after the second shot to be about 95% "bulletproof" from this virus.
  • Therapeutics - Let's face it - when this disease first came on the scene, it caught us somewhat flat footed. Some of our older folks got sick, went into the hospital, then into the ICU, some got incubated, and then many died. Last spring, our batting average in saving sick folks was not good. Then we got smarter, real fast. Today however - we have learned a lot on how to treat this thing. Although some still get really sick and maybe die, our batting average in saving folks is much, much better.
  • Personal Care - Many months ago, I heard a doctor on the national news saying the best way to protect yourself was "time and distance". In other words, stay at least 6 feet (10 -12 preferably) from other folks, and limit your exposure to under 15 minutes. That will help protect you from getting a "viral load" from an infected person which could sicken you. Proper handwashing, as well as correctly covering your mouth and nose when you cough and/or sneeze have been a must.
  • Face Masks - I left the sticky one for last. I see people falling into three categories with this one. First - true believers. All masks are good, especially the N95 and N100 ones. Cloth masks, good to a degree with enough layers. Some people are now wearing three masks at once. Good luck breathing! Second - doubters and skeptics. Masks are worthless, especially the cloth ones. Just instruments of control. Do more harm than good. Third - (I think most fall in this one) - go along to get along. Not a true believer nor a skeptic. Just want to be left alone and not hassled.
Whatever the reason for the decline in our numbers, I will take it! Maybe it is bit of all four items listed above. In any event, I just want us to win this thing, so we can go back to being the social and relational people we always have been. Skol?  
  

 

1 comment:

  1. Here is a another-- natural herd immunity. The models assume a homogenous population. That is, everyone lives their lives at exactly the same distance from one another, and they are all equally susceptible. BUT, if the people who normally gather in crowded indoor spaces infect one another, and the old bachelor farmer near Cloquet doesn't join in, then those folks become a naturally-immune "herd" because all those in the group who ARE going to suffer from the virus have already done so. The rest either are naturally immune or become infected and recovered from the virus without symptoms. The "curve" is exactly what would be expected under these circumstances.

    What is odd here is that we had a similar drop last spring and summer, proving this is indeed a seasonal virus, yet here we are at the height of the flu/COVID season and infections are dropping.

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