Putin's giant miscalculation?

"I am reminded of that old adage. 'I told Putin to cheer up, things could be worse. So Putin cheered up, and things did get worse.' There is no up side for Russia. The hornet's nest they kicked over in Ukraine, will continue to sting them for years to come." 

This morning on the news, an international expert was being interviewed. One of the topics discussed was Ukraine, and how poorly it is going for Russia. He had a very interesting observation. It was of his opinion, that Putin decided to advance on Ukraine at this point in time, as America is so divided, their attention would not be on Ukraine. It would bother them, but not that much. Putin would waltz into Ukraine, topple Zelenskyy, and install a puppet government. Case closed. Now Russia could plan its next move, on how to "Nazi cleanse" any country which might need it.

On a related topic. Slo Joe met with the Presidents of Sweden and Finland yesterday. Both Sweden and Finland have now officially applied to be a part of NATO. During yesterday's meeting, Biden gave them both the "thumbs up". The United States STRONGLY endorses having them join. Even though Putin has threatened Finland with some kind of nuclear this or that, Finland was unfazed. Big deal. Sounds like their membership in NATO is all but done. 

Back to Putin's giant miscalculation. First off, he had no idea how tough this bunch of Ukrainians were. Their tenacity surprised everyone, from Russian leadership to American leadership. Basically, Putin's army stepped on a hornet's nest, which has cost him one third of his ground forces, plus a dozen generals. Plus, as reported before, last year in Finland, a national poll was taken to see if there was any interest in joining NATO. The interest at that time was tepid, with only about 20% of the population being in favor of it.

However - once Putin invaded (with butchery), a non-NATO country, the bidding on the table changed. All of a sudden, 80% of the once neutral Finland wanted to be a part of the club. They wanted the aegis of Article 5 of the NATO agreement protecting them. And that is what they will get. What will the Russians get? An 800 mile border with a NATO state. Take that Vlad! How does it feel?

Meanwhile in Moscow, things are not going well. First off, it is rumored that Putin has cancer, and not doing well. Also, it is rumored that many in the apparatchik are not pleased. Like, Putin may meet with an unfortunate ending. Or he may resign, due to health reasons. Putin's army is a mess, Ukraine will not be taken, and now NATO has grown bigger and badder. Plus - once the war in Ukraine is over, Ukraine will also want to be a part of NATO. Why? To make sure something like this NEVER happens again. 

One final thing. I don't think Putin believed the amount of effective armament which poured into Ukraine. Even though he threatened nations with doom should they assist Ukrainian forces, most countries just blew that off. Except for Biden of course, who was cowed by the Russians. We did not help supply much needed MIG fighter jets to Ukraine. But Biden made up for that gaf, by supplying world class artillery and killer drones to Ukraine. 

What happens now with Russia? Well, they still have 6,000 nukes. We can't forget that. But their economy is it tatters, and their world standing is lousy. War crimes is in the future for many in leadership, including Putin. Some in Congress want Russia labeled a "terror state", which will put their standing somewhere between the Taliban and Iran. 

I am reminded of that old adage. "I told Putin to cheer up, things could be worse. So Putin cheered up, and things did get worse." There is no up side for Russia. The hornet's nest they kicked over in Ukraine, will continue to sting them for years to come.