Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Through the looking glass...







"For the first time in over 30 years, we have elected a change agent. Not a cookie cutter establishment Republican or Democrat - a real honest to gosh change agent. And anyone who does not think that huge change is coming, has not been watching the news as of late."



I had lunch with a couple of old friends today. We meet up at the same restaurant (an excellent steak house) every year about this time. We talk about what we have been up to, family matters, Viking football, and our health (as we have become older). Today we also talked about politics. About what this past election meant.


It is a topic I have thought about much as of late. For the first time in over 30 years, we have elected a change agent. Not a cookie cutter establishment Republican or Democrat - a real honest to gosh change agent. And anyone who does not think that huge change is coming, has not been watching the news as of late.

If we play our cards right, the economy in 2017 (and thereafter) could or should be a lot different than what we have seen for the past decade or two. If we can get our quarterly GDP up to 5% and higher, we will start to see some real growth in the economy. And then we will need it to fix what needs to be fixing. As exciting as all the promises were which were made on the campaign trail were, there is one stubborn fact which needs to be faced. We are going to need a boatload - make that 10 boatloads of money to fix them.

When I look through the looking glass into our future, this is where I see the rubber meeting the road. Yes, by lowering our corporate income tax, we will lure more companies to either set up shop in the United States or stay here. Yes, by lowering the capital gains tax, invention and innovation will be spurred on. Yes, by employing more people in well paying jobs (even if the tax rates are lowered), there should be more tax revenue coming in every year.

But (and this is a big one), to fix our infrastructure, to beef up our border security (wall or no wall), to fix our student loan problem, to get our military mission ready, to fix our underfunded public pensions, start paying down our debt, and to de-tangle us from ObamaCare - there is not enough tea in China. In other words, we will need more money than simple growth will allow us.

I will be very interested to see how this plays out. Donald Trump has surrounded himself with proven performers and deep thinkers. Me? I don't have a clue right now how all this is going to work. How it can be fixed without running the debt up to $30T after two terms in office. But I am not the wizard of smart - those guys have just been nominated to serve on President Elect's Cabinet. Let's hope they are as smart as most of us think they are. 



   

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