Monday, July 31, 2017

Who will be able to stop the coming war?

"The clock is ticking China. That goes for you also Mr. Putin. The world is about to get a very messy yet unnecessary war. We did not start this mess, but we will clean it up - and soon."

I think with the latest missile firing from North Korea, the sleeping giant has finally woken up. According to Pentagon experts, this type of missile just might have the legs to make it all the way to Washington D.C. (and anything closer). After the launch, the warning bells again went off in Japan and South Korea. The President was on the phone with Prime Minister Abe of Japan, and I can only imagine what that call consisted of. Suffice it to say, it had nothing to do with having more "talks".

I have addressed this before, under "how in the world did we get here?" Quite simply, the road to "getting here" was paved with inattention, flubs, and mostly naivete. When the Norks told us years ago they would stop pursuing nukes, we believed them. Then when they told us they might want nuclear capability only to power their dark skies at night, we believed them again. Now they have bombs, the capacity to make more of them, and rockets. And what do we have? A first class crisis on our hands.

China has proven itself to be something less than worthless in stopping this coming war. So has Russia. What I wish Trump would do is the following - to maintain the peace in the Korean Peninsula, and to protect our country from this rogue nation, we are going to have to rim the entire WestPac with THAAD (the ChiComs HATE the THAAD system). Then I would like Trump to have an off the record discussion with President Xi and give him the bad news. 

What would the bad news be? Within the next year, the Korean problem will be solved. First off, we have the next generation THAAD ready to be deployed. Does not matter if it is true or not. Then I would tell Xi that the Norks continue to present an existential threat to not only the region, but also the United States. We will no longer tolerate that. Finally I would tell the Chinese that war with North Korea will be fast, bloody and total. The country as it exists today, will no longer be there after the war. There will however, be millions of North Korean refugees looking for safe harbor in China. And the Chinese had better prepare for that.

If President Xi blows off that phone call and still does nothing, then I am afraid everything will be set. It will be time to unleash "Mad Dog" Mattis and our Dogs of War. South Korea needs to be ready for this. President Moon has been a bit tepid about dealing with the North since taking office. Recently however, I think he might be waking up. There are no more talks to be had. All the talks have done is allow the Norks to go to town with their nukes. South Korea is going to be ground zero (especially Seoul) when the war starts. There is no doubt that South Korea will take the brunt of what the North has to offer before we can neutralize them. 

Any Pentagon expert who is a truth teller is saying the same thing. A new war on the Peninsula is going to be costly and very, very messy. Not our choice to do it, but all other avenues have been explored and every effort has been exhausted. Have no doubt - we will prevail. But the cost in human lives will be very high.

Who is to blame for where we are? I could blame Clinton and Carter, and I would be justified in doing so. It was their naivete to a large degree which got us here. But the bulk of the blame for letting this "dog" turn into a Pit Bull is China. Plain and simple. The fact China will be inundated with refugees is nothing more than Karma in my book. 

The clock is ticking China. That goes for you also Mr. Putin. The world is about to get a very messy yet unnecessary war. We did not start this mess, but we will clean it up - and soon.


  1. I don't believe Mattis and Trump have the experience, intelligence or forethought to manage an excursion into North Korea. And they won't involve Tillerson, as he his on his way out.
    A U.S. foreign policy run by military technocrats will have the same deep flaws as the governments run by economic technocrats that are sometimes installed in countries engulfed by economic crisis.
    A foreign policy, like an economic policy, can succeed only if it has political backing.
    Difficult decisions will be accepted by the public only if they have political legitimacy.
    Military decisions in particular should be part of a carefully thought-out strategy, one that has been cleared by Congress, debated in public and discussed not only in the Pentagon but also in the State Department and the other institutions, staffed by experts that we have created for this purpose.
    This administration has proven it is not capable of handling the simplest of tasks and is woefully ill-prepared to handle a major conflict.
    You can't manage a war with Tweeting Talent.
    Not much for prayer, but I may start if you are correct on your assumptions.
    Dave Gjerdingen

  2. Looks like Kelly is in charge!

  3. Nork bluster and test firings are all designed to bring the US to the bargaining table. We have long ignored Nork and they now have enough leverage to negotiate a reduction in sanctions in return for reduced testing. I think they are smarter than us.