Too many Democrats...

"So what does all this mean? Unless things change in a hurry, bad news in November."

I was listening to a pundit on one of the news shows the other day, and he brought up an interesting point. It was about Trump's path to victory (if any). If every registered Republican voted for Trump, every registered Democrat voted for Clinton, and they split the independents right down the middle, Clinton would win. Why? Too many Democrats.

According to a CBS News poll from about a year ago, 46% of all people polled identified as Democrats and 41% identified as Republicans. And that was long before Donald J. Trump became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. 

What I find the most disturbing about this year's election is when the demographics are broken down. For example, as of April of this year, seven out of ten women have negative feelings towards Trump. Even married women. Why is this bad? First the sheer numbers of women voters. Seven out of ten women in a national election is a big, big number. And to lose married women is particularly worrisome. In the last election, more married women voted for Mitt Romney than Obama. 

With non-while voters, the news for Mr. Trump is not good either. He is viewed unfavorably by 86% of black voters and 77% of Latino voters. And the population of blacks and Latinos continue to grow faster than the population of whites in this country - which means that voting block continues to grow. So what does all this mean? Unless things change in a hurry, bad news for the red team in November.

Reagan was able to amass a huge victory over both Carter and Mondale because he was likable. Not just with some people, but huge chunks of some vital demographics. Even voters who hated his policies, liked Ronald Reagan. Plus (and this is a big one), he was able to steal some Democratic voters. Yes, I am talking about Reagan Democrats.

I observe Trump quite a bit. I find him to be an enigma. Many times it looks like the race is between Trump vs. Trump, with Trump losing. Donald Trump continues to blister people on his side of the fence - people which he is really going to need in November. To overcome the number advantage that the Democrats will have, Trump is going to really have to be crafty, nimble and smart. And most of all - controlled.

Like many on my side, I have a sense of dread right now. Hillary Clinton is the most flawed candidate the Democrats have put forward in many a year. And how do we counter that? With our own candidate who is equally or more flawed. With that thought, I am going back to bed.