Friday, February 19, 2016

Gasoline on the fire

"My fear in this pool of gasoline, a dropped match could make this cold war very hot indeed." 

I was going to start off by once again saying what a mess the middle east is. But the word "mess" does not quite cut it. Whether it be Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen or Turkey, the entire region seems to be on fire. And to make matters worse, this very volatile area of the world, which has always had problems getting along with itself, is now saturated with foreign interests - including us. 

Let's talk about Iran first. Although no hostilities are going on in Iran (yet), it is moving swiftly to becoming another Russian puppet in the region. And for reasons which baffle even the wisest, Russia recently delivered its fearful S-300 anti-air missile to Iran. These giant anti-air missiles are so good, and have a range so far, that if placed around where the Iranians are making their nuclear bomb(s), the area will become almost impenetrable. This now becomes a huge issue for Israel if their intelligence discovers the bomb(s) are almost ready.

Then last night our warplanes hit Libya. Remember Libya? The country where bad man Qaddafi was trying to turn over a new leaf and place nice? We helped take him out anyway. Now that country has turned into nothing but misery and a Petri dish for developing terrorists. No working government what-so-ever. So we bombed a building or two last night. Reports are that 40+ were killed. Where they all terrorists? Unknown, and maybe never will be.

And poor Syria. Collateral damage is something that Assad and his Russian handlers don't give a crap about. Now they are bombing hospitals. Maybe it is because ISIL is hiding in plain sight by those hospitals. Or maybe it is because that is where the non-ISIL rebels (the ones we are backing) are being treated for injuries. In any event, with the onset of near carpet bombing done by the Russians, word has it the tide is really turning in favor of Assad. Or to put it another way, there is no way the Russians will ever allow Assad to fall.

I still expect this turmoil to come to the shores of Saudi Arabia. And when that happens, the ship is going to hit the sand. The nice and low gasoline prices we are seeing today would vanish in a heartbeat should the choke point between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea become impossible for oil barges to transit. Hello, global recession.

Where will this all end? I try not to think about it as the possibilities would keep me up at night. I think the Russian Premier had it right the other day. His words slightly paraphrased, "once again in a cold war". My fear in this pool of gasoline, a dropped match could make this cold war very hot indeed.  

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